比特幣（BTC）可能很快就會經歷大幅價格波動，原因如下

比特幣可能很快就會在短期內經歷大幅價格波動，因為拋售壓力正在減弱，市場正在迅速接近平衡。

Bitcoin (BTC) may soon experience significant price swings in the short-term, as sell pressure diminishes and the market quickly approaches a state of equilibrium, according to new in-depth analysis from on-chain data analytics platform Glassnode.

根據鏈上數據分析平台 Glassnode 的最新深入分析，隨著拋售壓力減弱且市場迅速接近平衡狀態，比特幣（BTC）可能很快就會在短期內經歷大幅價格波動。

Earlier this week, Glassnode published an analysis on the state of Bitcoin and what we can expect price-wise in the short term. Called “Seeking Liquidity,” the article discusses three key points that should result in a strong move to either side: positive capital flows, diminishing sell-side pressure, and the tightening up of “several measures of volatility.”

本週早些時候，Glassnode 發布了一份關於比特幣狀況以及短期內價格預期的分析。這篇題為「尋求流動性」的文章討論了三個關鍵點，這三個關鍵點應該會導致任何一方的強勁走勢：積極的資本流動、賣方壓力的減弱以及「幾項波動性指標」的收緊。

“As the price hit the $100k level, net capital inflows into Bitcoin surged, signifying investors were locking in substantial profits,” Glassnode explains. “These capital inflows have since started to decline in magnitude as the market consolidates and acclimatises to the new price range.”

Glassnode 解釋說：“隨著價格達到 10 萬美元的水平，流入比特幣的淨資本激增，這意味著投資者鎖定了可觀的利潤。” “隨著市場整合並適應新的價格範圍，這些資本流入的規模已開始下降。”

Currently, the balance of realized profit and loss volumes is nearly neutral, reflecting a reset in supply and demand dynamics.

目前，已達到盈虧量的平衡幾乎是中性的，反映出供需動態的重置。

“Profit taking volumes reached a peak of +$4.5B in December 2024, and have now declined to a value of +$316.7M (-93%),” the researchers continue, arguing why we soon might see large green candles.

研究人員繼續說道：「獲利了結量在2024 年12 月達到+$4.5B 的峰值，目前已下降至+$316.7M (-93%)。」他們解釋了為什麼我們很快可能會看到大的綠色蠟燭。

At the same time, there’s been a “noteworthy decline” in overall sell-side pressure. Using metrics like Coinday Destruction, as well as exchange inflow volumes, Glassnode concluded that the majority of investors looking to lock in profits have already done so.

同時，整體賣方壓力「顯著下降」。 Glassnode 使用 Coinday Destruction 等指標以及交易所流入量得出結論，大多數希望鎖定利潤的投資者已經這樣做了。

“Generally speaking, this indicates that the market may need to go ‘somewhere else’ in order to entice and unlock the next wave of supply.” In other words, there will be fewer bitcoin for sale and fewer investors looking to buy. Therefore, either the remaining investors will drive the price upwards or the decline in demand pushes the price down.

“一般來說，這表明市場可能需要走向‘其他地方’，以吸引和釋放下一波供應。”換句話說，出售的比特幣將會減少，想要購買的投資者也會減少。因此，要么剩下的投資者會推動價格上漲，要么需求下降會推動價格下跌。

Finally, the price range seems to be narrowing down, which is also a major signal of volatility. Looking at the prices for the last 60 days, Glassnode determined that the lows are getting higher, while the highs are getting lower, compressing the price in an ever-tightening coil.

最後，價格區間似乎正在收窄，這也是波動的一大訊號。透過查看過去 60 天的價格，Glassnode 發現低點越來越高，而高點越來越低，將價格壓縮得越來越緊。

“All of these instances have occurred prior to a significant burst of volatility, with the majority being in early bull markets, or prior to late stage capitulations in bear cycles.”

“所有這些情況都發生在大幅波動之前，其中大多數發生在牛市早期，或熊市週期後期投降之前。”

While it doesn’t explicitly say so, Glassnode does hint at a potential move to the upside. After all, we don’t seem to be approaching late stage bear cycle capitulation right now.

雖然沒有明確表示，但 Glassnode 確實暗示了潛在的上漲趨勢。畢竟，我們現在似乎還沒有接近熊市週期的最後階段投降。

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