比特币（BTC）可能在欣快感的牛周期之前长期很长

基于实现的市值，BTC落后于先前的牛周期，因为价格巩固了100,000美元以上。

Bitcoin (BTC) might still have a long way to go before a euphoria-stage bull cycle. Based on realized market capitalization, BTC lags behind previous bull cycles as the price consolidates above $100,000.

比特币（BTC）在欣快阶段的公牛周期之前可能还有很长的路要走。基于实现的市值，BTC落后于先前的牛周期，因为价格巩固了100,000美元以上。

According to realized market cap, Bitcoin (BTC) is not yet close to its euphoric stage. The leading coin once again raised questions on its exact spot in the market cycle, as 2025 is expected to reach new all-time highs.

根据实现的市值，比特币（BTC）尚未接近其欣快阶段。领先的硬币再次在市场周期的确切位置提出了疑问，因为2025年有望达到新的历史高点。

BTC hovered above $104,576 at the time of writing, recovering after last week’s dip below $100,000.

BTC在撰写本文时徘徊在104,576美元以上，在上周下跌以下100,000美元以下后恢复。

The value of the realized cap since the cycle low is up 2.1 times, still far from the usual peak for previous cycles. During the latest market cycle, counted from January 2023, BTC had the most gradual increase of its realized price since the cycle low. The metric tracks the early stage of the 2015-2018 cycle, with more upside based on previous bull markets.

由于周期低的循环上升2.1倍，因此已实现的盖子的值仍远离以前的周期的通常峰值。从2023年1月开始的最新市场周期中，BTC自周期低以来的实现价格逐渐提高。该指标跟踪了2015-2018周期的早期阶段，根据以前的牛市，其上升空间更高。

Usually, a cycle top is preceded by a jump or nearly vertical growth of realized cap, with a growth of up to 5.7 times. Based on this metric, BTC is still far from its euphoria stage.

通常，循环顶部之前是已实现的帽的跳跃或几乎垂直的生长，其增长高达5.7倍。基于这个指标，BTC仍然远离其欣快阶段。

The BTC realized price hovered over $42,000, up from $20,000 in 2022. Multiple early buyers are still holding from much lower acquisition prices, keeping the realized price lower.

BTC意识到价格徘徊在42,000美元以上，高于2022年的20,000美元。多家早期买家仍在较低的收购价格中持有，使已实现的价格降低。

BTC is seen as a long-term strategic reserve, with buyers aiming to retain a balance to tap a higher future price range. This has prevented panic-selling and capitulations, while riskier traders use the derivative market to place short-term speculative bets.

BTC被视为长期战略储备，买家旨在保持余额以利用更高的未来价格范围。这阻止了恐慌销售和投降，而风险更高的交易者则使用衍生品市场进行短期投机赌注。

During the current cycle, both whales and retail have been more cautious, either holding or taking profits during favorable price runs. However, the lowered volatility also meant the realized market cap is growing more slowly.

在当前周期中，鲸鱼和零售业都更加谨慎，无论是在有利的价格运行期间持有还是拿走利润。但是，降低的波动率也意味着实现的市值的增长速度较慢。

BTC goes through less volatile market cycle

BTC经历了易波动的市场周期

Based on previous market drawdowns, the current BTC cycle resembles the 2015-2018 price moves. BTC is now repeating the slower initial climb, with smaller drawdowns instead of panic.

根据先前的市场趋势，当前的BTC周期类似于2015-2018的价格变化。 BTC现在正在重复较慢的初始攀爬，而不是恐慌而不是恐慌。

Leveraged trading is more strategic, avoiding the biggest panic-inducing liquidations. Additionally, funds dedicated to BTC stay with the largest coin and do not flow into altcoins and tokens, which have their separate sources of liquidity.

杠杆交易更具战略意义，避免了最大的恐慌引起的清算。此外，专门用于BTC的资金与最大的硬币保持在一起，并且不流入具有单独的流动性来源的Altcoins和dokens。

The current cycle may continue with the early, more gradual bullish stage before extending into the euphoria breakout.

当前的周期可能会持续到早期，更逐渐的看涨阶段，然后延伸到欣快感的突破。

On the positive side, BTC has come to expect smaller drawdowns, rarely exceeding 25%. BTC price moves no longer reflect sheer panic and are the result of more strategic trading.

从积极的一面来看，BTC预计降低较小，很少超过25％。 BTC的价格变动不再反映出恐慌，也是更具战略性交易的结果。

The current market no longer holds the expansion potential of the earliest BTC price moves. The last euphoric stage of the market also requires a new inflow of funds from previously untapped investors.

当前的市场不再具有最早的BTC价格移动的扩展潜力。市场的最后一个欣喜阶段还需要以前未开发的投资者的新资金流入。

For BTC, the long history has already made the asset mainstream and widely accessible. The new inflow of funds is expected from corporate buyers or for the creation of other reserves, potentially from governments. For now, retail buying has been relatively slow compared to previous cycles, and despite reaccumulation, retail wallets hold a smaller percentage of the BTC supply. ETF demand also supports the current price action, although it still does not lead to the euphoria stage.

对于BTC而言，悠久的历史已经使资产主流化并广泛访问。期望公司买家或创建其他储备金的新资金流入，这可能是政府的。目前，与以前的周期相比，零售购买的速度相对较慢，尽管重新汇总，零售钱包的占BTC供应量的比例较小。 ETF需求还支持当前的价格行动，尽管它仍然不会导致欣快阶段。

The current trades of around $100,000 were seen as an opportunity to cash out, especially from older whales. However, there is no consensus on whether this price range is at the top of the BTC potential. BTC has been riding the US elections hype for three months now, with no significant drawdowns. More than 97% of wallets are in the money, with limited price pressure even from those selling at a loss.

目前约100,000美元的交易被视为兑现的机会，尤其是从较老的鲸鱼那里。但是，对于这个价格范围是否处于BTC潜力的顶部，尚无共识。 BTC已经在美国大选炒作了三个月，没有大幅度的下降。超过97％的钱包属于钱，即使是售价的钱包也有限。

Instead of starting a euphoric rally above $100,000, BTC consolidates and trades similarly to previous periods.

BTC并没有开始欣喜的集会超过100,000美元，而是与以前的时期相似。

BTC still moves based on liquidations of leveraged positions while getting support from spot buyers, including retail and whales. The leading coin may attempt a short-term rally above $110,000, but the expectation for the coming months is to test the $120,000 range.

BTC仍然基于杠杆位置的清算，同时获得包括零售和鲸鱼在内的现货购买者的支持。领先的硬币可能会尝试短期集会高于110,000美元，但对未来几个月的期望是测试120,000美元的范围。