比特幣（BTC）可能在欣快感的牛週期之前長期很長

基於實現的市值，BTC落後於先前的牛週期，因為價格鞏固了100,000美元以上。

Bitcoin (BTC) might still have a long way to go before a euphoria-stage bull cycle. Based on realized market capitalization, BTC lags behind previous bull cycles as the price consolidates above $100,000.

比特幣（BTC）在欣快階段的公牛週期之前可能還有很長的路要走。基於實現的市值，BTC落後於先前的牛週期，因為價格鞏固了100,000美元以上。

According to realized market cap, Bitcoin (BTC) is not yet close to its euphoric stage. The leading coin once again raised questions on its exact spot in the market cycle, as 2025 is expected to reach new all-time highs.

根據實現的市值，比特幣（BTC）尚未接近其欣快階段。領先的硬幣再次在市場週期的確切位置提出了疑問，因為2025年有望達到新的歷史高點。

BTC hovered above $104,576 at the time of writing, recovering after last week’s dip below $100,000.

BTC在撰寫本文時徘徊在104,576美元以上，在上週下跌以下100,000美元以下後恢復。

The value of the realized cap since the cycle low is up 2.1 times, still far from the usual peak for previous cycles. During the latest market cycle, counted from January 2023, BTC had the most gradual increase of its realized price since the cycle low. The metric tracks the early stage of the 2015-2018 cycle, with more upside based on previous bull markets.

由於週期低的循環上升2.1倍，因此已實現的蓋子的值仍遠離以前的周期的通常峰值。從2023年1月開始的最新市場週期中，BTC自周期低以來的實現價格逐漸提高。該指標跟踪了2015-2018週期的早期階段，根據以前的牛市，其上升空間更高。

Usually, a cycle top is preceded by a jump or nearly vertical growth of realized cap, with a growth of up to 5.7 times. Based on this metric, BTC is still far from its euphoria stage.

通常，循環頂部之前是已實現的帽的跳躍或幾乎垂直的生長，其增長高達5.7倍。基於這個指標，BTC仍然遠離其欣快階段。

The BTC realized price hovered over $42,000, up from $20,000 in 2022. Multiple early buyers are still holding from much lower acquisition prices, keeping the realized price lower.

BTC意識到價格徘徊在42,000美元以上，高於2022年的20,000美元。多家早期買家仍在較低的收購價格中持有，使已實現的價格降低。

BTC is seen as a long-term strategic reserve, with buyers aiming to retain a balance to tap a higher future price range. This has prevented panic-selling and capitulations, while riskier traders use the derivative market to place short-term speculative bets.

BTC被視為長期戰略儲備，買家旨在保持餘額以利用更高的未來價格範圍。這阻止了恐慌銷售和投降，而風險更高的交易者則使用衍生品市場進行短期投機賭注。

During the current cycle, both whales and retail have been more cautious, either holding or taking profits during favorable price runs. However, the lowered volatility also meant the realized market cap is growing more slowly.

在當前週期中，鯨魚和零售業都更加謹慎，無論是在有利的價格運行期間持有還是拿走利潤。但是，降低的波動率也意味著實現的市值的增長速度較慢。

BTC goes through less volatile market cycle

BTC經歷了易波動的市場週期

Based on previous market drawdowns, the current BTC cycle resembles the 2015-2018 price moves. BTC is now repeating the slower initial climb, with smaller drawdowns instead of panic.

根據先前的市場趨勢，當前的BTC週期類似於2015-2018的價格變化。 BTC現在正在重複較慢的初始攀爬，而不是恐慌而不是恐慌。

Leveraged trading is more strategic, avoiding the biggest panic-inducing liquidations. Additionally, funds dedicated to BTC stay with the largest coin and do not flow into altcoins and tokens, which have their separate sources of liquidity.

槓桿交易更具戰略意義，避免了最大的恐慌引起的清算。此外，專門用於BTC的資金與最大的硬幣保持在一起，並且不流入具有單獨的流動性來源的Altcoins和dokens。

The current cycle may continue with the early, more gradual bullish stage before extending into the euphoria breakout.

當前的周期可能會持續到早期，更逐漸的看漲階段，然後延伸到欣快感的突破。

On the positive side, BTC has come to expect smaller drawdowns, rarely exceeding 25%. BTC price moves no longer reflect sheer panic and are the result of more strategic trading.

從積極的一面來看，BTC預計降低較小，很少超過25％。 BTC的價格變動不再反映出恐慌，也是更具戰略性交易的結果。

The current market no longer holds the expansion potential of the earliest BTC price moves. The last euphoric stage of the market also requires a new inflow of funds from previously untapped investors.

當前的市場不再具有最早的BTC價格移動的擴展潛力。市場的最後一個欣喜階段還需要以前未開發的投資者的新資金流入。

For BTC, the long history has already made the asset mainstream and widely accessible. The new inflow of funds is expected from corporate buyers or for the creation of other reserves, potentially from governments. For now, retail buying has been relatively slow compared to previous cycles, and despite reaccumulation, retail wallets hold a smaller percentage of the BTC supply. ETF demand also supports the current price action, although it still does not lead to the euphoria stage.

對於BTC而言，悠久的歷史已經使資產主流化並廣泛訪問。期望公司買家或創建其他儲備金的新資金流入，這可能是政府的。目前，與以前的周期相比，零售購買的速度相對較慢，儘管重新匯總，零售錢包的佔BTC供應量的比例較小。 ETF需求還支持當前的價格行動，儘管它仍然不會導致欣快階段。

The current trades of around $100,000 were seen as an opportunity to cash out, especially from older whales. However, there is no consensus on whether this price range is at the top of the BTC potential. BTC has been riding the US elections hype for three months now, with no significant drawdowns. More than 97% of wallets are in the money, with limited price pressure even from those selling at a loss.

目前約100,000美元的交易被視為兌現的機會，尤其是從較老的鯨魚那裡。但是，對於這個價格範圍是否處於BTC潛力的頂部，尚無共識。 BTC已經在美國大選炒作了三個月，沒有大幅度的下降。超過97％的錢包屬於錢，即使是售價的錢包也有限。

Instead of starting a euphoric rally above $100,000, BTC consolidates and trades similarly to previous periods.

BTC並沒有開始欣喜的集會超過100,000美元，而是與以前的時期相似。

BTC still moves based on liquidations of leveraged positions while getting support from spot buyers, including retail and whales. The leading coin may attempt a short-term rally above $110,000, but the expectation for the coming months is to test the $120,000 range.

BTC仍然基於槓杆位置的清算，同時獲得包括零售和鯨魚在內的現貨購買者的支持。領先的硬幣可能會嘗試短期集會高於110,000美元，但對未來幾個月的期望是測試120,000美元的範圍。