比特币（BTC）的兴奋已经到来。 99.3% 的 UTXO 现已盈利

这个欣快阶段通常持续 3-12 个月（21 年 11 月的牛市陷阱除外）。这件事从两周前开始。现在做空可能是在抛物线牛市的顶部或底部做空。

Bitcoin (BTC) has finally reached a point where 99.3% of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) are in profit, according to data from CryptoQuant. This is a key moment in the history of cryptocurrency, and it begs the question: what happens next?

根据 CryptoQuant 的数据，比特币 (BTC) 终于达到了 99.3% 的未花费交易输出 (UTXO) 盈利的水平。这是加密货币历史上的关键时刻，它引出了一个问题：接下来会发生什么？

Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, has outlined two possible scenarios for the future of the Bitcoin price.

CryptoQuant 的创始人兼首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 概述了比特币价格未来的两种可能情况。

The first scenario suggests that Bitcoin could continue its price discovery phase as it has in previous cycles. In this scenario, the price of BTC would continue to rise, with new highs being set in the coming months. This could last anywhere from 3 to 12 months, which is how long past bullish phases have typically lasted.

第一种情况表明，比特币可能会像之前的周期一样继续其价格发现阶段。在这种情况下，比特币的价格将继续上涨，并在未来几个月内创下新高。这种情况可能会持续 3 到 12 个月，这是过去牛市阶段通常持续的时间。

The second scenario is more cautious, as Ju warns that the current rally could be the peak and a big drop could follow, similar to the crash that occurred in November 2021.

第二种情况则更为谨慎，朱警告称，当前的反弹可能已达到顶峰，随后可能会出现大幅下跌，类似于 2021 年 11 月发生的崩盘。

“Bitcoin euphoria is here,” Ju wrote in a tweet on April 23. “Everyone’s happy. This euphoric phase typically lasts 3–12 months (except Nov ’21 bull trap). This started 2 weeks ago. Shorting now could be either catching the top—or shorting at the bottom of a parabolic bull run.”

“比特币的兴奋已经到来，”Ju 在 4 月 23 日的推文中写道，“每个人都很高兴。这个欣快阶段通常持续 3-12 个月（21 年 11 月的牛市陷阱除外）。这件事从两周前开始。现在做空可能是在抛物线牛市的顶部或底部做空。”

Despite the possibility of the second scenario, the analyst warns that trying to short Bitcoin now could be a risky move.

尽管存在第二种情况的可能性，但分析师警告说，现在尝试做空比特币可能是一个危险的举动。

“I personally feel that it’s too late to short BTC,” the analyst added in a follow-up tweet. “Learn to hold, not sell. Bitcoin is the strongest hedge vs dollar devaluation among all assets.”

这位分析师在后续推文中补充道：“我个人认为现在做空 BTC 已经太晚了。” “学会持有，而不是卖出。比特币是所有资产中对抗美元贬值最强的对冲工具。”

Ju’s comments on holding Bitcoin come as the asset has surged by over 30% in April alone. The latest leg up began on April 11, when Bitcoin fell to a low of $38,000 following a period of consolidation.

Ju 发表关于持有比特币的言论之际，该资产仅在 4 月份就飙升了 30% 以上。最近一次上涨始于 4 月 11 日，当时比特币在经过一段时间的盘整后跌至 38,000 美元的低点。

As reported by CoinDesk, many traders bet against Bitcoin by shorting it during the late 2020 price discovery phase. However, this move backfired as the short squeeze fueled a bull run.

据 CoinDesk 报道，许多交易者在 2020 年末的价格发现阶段通过做空比特币来做空比特币。然而，由于空头挤压助长了牛市，此举适得其反。

“Many traders shorted BTC in 2020 H2, thinking that the bull run was ending,” Ju wrote in a separate tweet on April 23. “But those who held BTC made 10x profit in 2021. This is why I always say to traders: Hold, not sell.”

Ju 4 月 23 日在另一条推文中写道：“许多交易者在 2020 年下半年做空 BTC，认为牛市即将结束。但那些持有 BTC 的人在 2021 年获得了 10 倍的利润。这就是为什么我总是对交易者说：持有，不卖。”