比特幣（BTC）的興奮已經到來。 99.3% 的 UTXO 現已獲利

這個欣快階段通常持續 3-12 個月（21 年 11 月的多頭陷阱除外）。這件事從兩週前開始。現在做空可能是在拋物線牛市的頂部或底部做空。

Bitcoin (BTC) has finally reached a point where 99.3% of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) are in profit, according to data from CryptoQuant. This is a key moment in the history of cryptocurrency, and it begs the question: what happens next?

根據 CryptoQuant 的數據，比特幣 (BTC) 終於達到了 99.3% 的未花費交易輸出 (UTXO) 獲利的水平。這是加密貨幣歷史上的關鍵時刻，它引出了一個問題：接下來會發生什麼事？

Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, has outlined two possible scenarios for the future of the Bitcoin price.

CryptoQuant 的創始人兼執行長 Ki Young Ju 概述了比特幣價格未來的兩種可能情況。

The first scenario suggests that Bitcoin could continue its price discovery phase as it has in previous cycles. In this scenario, the price of BTC would continue to rise, with new highs being set in the coming months. This could last anywhere from 3 to 12 months, which is how long past bullish phases have typically lasted.

第一種情況表明，比特幣可能會像先前的周期一樣繼續其價格發現階段。在這種情況下，比特幣的價格將繼續上漲，並在未來幾個月內創下新高。這種情況可能會持續 3 到 12 個月，這是過去牛市階段通常持續的時間。

The second scenario is more cautious, as Ju warns that the current rally could be the peak and a big drop could follow, similar to the crash that occurred in November 2021.

第二種情況則更為謹慎，朱警告稱，當前的反彈可能已達到頂峰，隨後可能會出現大幅下跌，類似於 2021 年 11 月發生的崩盤。

“Bitcoin euphoria is here,” Ju wrote in a tweet on April 23. “Everyone’s happy. This euphoric phase typically lasts 3–12 months (except Nov ’21 bull trap). This started 2 weeks ago. Shorting now could be either catching the top—or shorting at the bottom of a parabolic bull run.”

「比特幣的興奮已經到來，」Ju 在 4 月 23 日的推文中寫道，「每個人都很高興。這個欣快階段通常持續 3-12 個月（21 年 11 月的多頭陷阱除外）。這件事從兩週前開始。現在做空可能是在拋物線牛市的頂部或底部做空。

Despite the possibility of the second scenario, the analyst warns that trying to short Bitcoin now could be a risky move.

儘管存在第二種情況的可能性，但分析師警告說，現在嘗試做空比特幣可能是一個危險的舉動。

“I personally feel that it’s too late to short BTC,” the analyst added in a follow-up tweet. “Learn to hold, not sell. Bitcoin is the strongest hedge vs dollar devaluation among all assets.”

這位分析師在後續推文中補充道：“我個人認為現在做空 BTC 已經太晚了。” 「學會持有，而不是賣出。比特幣是所有資產中對抗美元貶值最強的對沖工具。

Ju’s comments on holding Bitcoin come as the asset has surged by over 30% in April alone. The latest leg up began on April 11, when Bitcoin fell to a low of $38,000 following a period of consolidation.

Ju 發表關於持有比特幣的評論之際，該資產僅在 4 月就飆升了 30% 以上。最近一次上漲始於 4 月 11 日，當時比特幣在經過一段時間的盤整後跌至 38,000 美元的低點。

As reported by CoinDesk, many traders bet against Bitcoin by shorting it during the late 2020 price discovery phase. However, this move backfired as the short squeeze fueled a bull run.

根據 CoinDesk 報導，許多交易者在 2020 年底的價格發現階段透過做空比特幣來做空比特幣。然而，由於空頭擠壓助長了牛市，此舉適得其反。

“Many traders shorted BTC in 2020 H2, thinking that the bull run was ending,” Ju wrote in a separate tweet on April 23. “But those who held BTC made 10x profit in 2021. This is why I always say to traders: Hold, not sell.”

Ju 4 月23 日在另一條推文中寫道：「許多交易者在2020 年下半年做空BTC，認為牛市即將結束。但那些持有BTC 的人在2021 年獲得了10 倍的利潤。這就是為什麼我總是對交易者說：持有，不賣。