Bitcoin (BTC) Euphoria Is Here. 99.3% of UTXOs Are in Profit Now

This euphoric phase typically lasts 3–12 months (except Nov '21 bull trap). This started 2 weeks ago. Shorting now could be either catching the top—or shorting at the bottom of a parabolic bull run.

Bitcoin (BTC) has finally reached a point where 99.3% of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) are in profit, according to data from CryptoQuant. This is a key moment in the history of cryptocurrency, and it begs the question: what happens next?

Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, has outlined two possible scenarios for the future of the Bitcoin price.

The first scenario suggests that Bitcoin could continue its price discovery phase as it has in previous cycles. In this scenario, the price of BTC would continue to rise, with new highs being set in the coming months. This could last anywhere from 3 to 12 months, which is how long past bullish phases have typically lasted.

The second scenario is more cautious, as Ju warns that the current rally could be the peak and a big drop could follow, similar to the crash that occurred in November 2021.

“Bitcoin euphoria is here,” Ju wrote in a tweet on April 23. “Everyone’s happy. This euphoric phase typically lasts 3–12 months (except Nov ’21 bull trap). This started 2 weeks ago. Shorting now could be either catching the top—or shorting at the bottom of a parabolic bull run.”

Despite the possibility of the second scenario, the analyst warns that trying to short Bitcoin now could be a risky move.

“I personally feel that it’s too late to short BTC,” the analyst added in a follow-up tweet. “Learn to hold, not sell. Bitcoin is the strongest hedge vs dollar devaluation among all assets.”

Ju’s comments on holding Bitcoin come as the asset has surged by over 30% in April alone. The latest leg up began on April 11, when Bitcoin fell to a low of $38,000 following a period of consolidation.

As reported by CoinDesk, many traders bet against Bitcoin by shorting it during the late 2020 price discovery phase. However, this move backfired as the short squeeze fueled a bull run.

“Many traders shorted BTC in 2020 H2, thinking that the bull run was ending,” Ju wrote in a separate tweet on April 23. “But those who held BTC made 10x profit in 2021. This is why I always say to traders: Hold, not sell.”