比特币（BTC）刚刚从历史最高的高点下降了24％ - 接下来会发生什么？

比特币刚刚从历史最高点下降了24％ - 接下来会发生什么？分析师说，BTC“非常接近其本地底部”，但是黑天鹅事件可以使其崩溃更低吗？

Bitcoin (BTC) has slid 24% from its all-time high, sparking discussion among analysts about the cryptocurrency’s next move.

比特币（BTC）从历史悠久的高位中就对加密货币的下一步行动进行了讨论，从而引发了24％的速度。

Many analysts believe that BTC is very close to its local bottom and that a technical rebound is likely in the coming days or weeks.

许多分析师认为，BTC非常接近其本地底部，并且可能在未来几天或几周内进行技术反弹。

However, could a Black Swan event or unexpected market turbulence send Bitcoin crashing even lower?

但是，黑天鹅事件或意外的市场动荡是否会使比特币崩溃降低？

Macro turmoil shakes Bitcoin

宏动荡摇动比特币

President Trump’s administration has seen a rocky start with Bitcoin, largely remaining neutral on the cryptocurrency despite campaign promises of a pro-Bitcoin stance.

特朗普总统的政府在比特币中看到了一个艰难的开端，尽管有竞选者承诺采取亲甲币立场，但仍在加密货币上保持中立。

Recently, there has been disappointment among crypto investors as the Trump administration has yet to make any new purchases of BTC for the strategic reserve plan, a policy initiative that some had hoped would provide a regular buying force for Bitcoin.

最近，加密货币投资者感到失望，因为特朗普政府尚未为战略储备计划购买BTC的任何新购买，这是某些人希望为比特币提供常规购买力的政策计划。

On the macroeconomic side, inflation data offered a brief moment of optimism. The consumer price index rose by just 0.2% in February, slowing to an annual inflation rate of 2.8% — down from 0.5% in January.

在宏观经济方面，通货膨胀数据提供了短暂的乐观时刻。 2月份的消费者价格指数仅上涨0.2％，速度减慢到每年2.8％，低于一月份的0.5％。

The core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, also landed at 3.1%, its lowest level since April 2021.

降低食品和能源价格的核心CPI也达到了3.1％，其最低水平是2021年4月。

Markets initially reacted positively to the softer CPI data. Bitcoin pushed above $84,000, and altcoins saw double-digit gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also recorded slight upticks.

市场最初对柔和的CPI数据做出积极反应。比特币的推高超过84,000美元，而Altcoins获得了两位数的收益。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100号也记录了轻微的上升。

However, by the afternoon, most of those gains were wiped out as Trump’s administration slapped 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Canada.

但是，到下午，由于特朗普的政府对从加拿大进口的钢铁和铝制进口的税率达到25％的关税，因此大多数收益被消除了。

In response, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs of 25% on $21 billion worth of U.S. goods.

作为回应，加拿大宣布对价值210亿美元的美国商品的报复性关税为25％。

Just hours later, the EU announced its own tariffs on $28 billion in U.S. products, further escalating trade tensions and putting investors on edge.

几个小时后，欧盟宣布对280亿美元的美国产品的关税，进一步升级贸易紧张局势，并使投资者处于优势之处。

Many investors are now shifting their focus toward a risk-off approach, seeking cash and safer assets like gold and bonds over volatile plays like Bitcoin.

现在，许多投资者将注意力转向了风险态度，寻求现金和更安全的资产，例如黄金和债券，而不是比特币这样的波动性游戏。

With multiple headwinds and a lack of clear institutional buying pressure, Bitcoin finds itself at a crossroads.

由于多种逆风和缺乏机构购买压力，比特币发现自己处于十字路口。

Will it manage to stabilize and gear up for another run at the all-time high, or are further corrections still on the horizon?

它会设法稳定并在历史高处进行一次稳定，还是进一步的校正仍在范围内？

Let’s break down the latest events and chart patterns to anticipate Bitcoin’s next move.

让我们分解最新事件和图表模式，以预测比特币的下一步行动。

Bitcoin ETF outflows hit record levels as institutional money retreats

比特币ETF流出时，随着机构资金撤退的记录水平

Since Feb. 13, spot Bitcoin ETFs have been facing pressure, with money flowing out at an aggressive pace.

自2月13日以来，现场比特币ETF一直面临压力，货币以积极的速度流动。

While there were a few days of net positive inflows, they were relatively small in volume compared to the heavy outflows on most days.

虽然有几天的净正流入流入，但与大多数日子的流出相比，它们的体积相对较小。

The worst hit came on Feb. 25, when ETFs saw their largest single-day outflow ever — over $1 billion — highlighting a strong risk-off sentiment among institutional investors.

最严重的打击是2月25日，当时ETF看到他们有史以来最大的单日流出（超过10亿美元），强调了机构投资者的强烈风险情绪。

Despite the outflows, as of Mar. 12, BlackRock’s IBIT remains the dominant ETF in the market, holding nearly 568,000 BTC. Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC follow, managing 197,500 BTC and 196,000 BTC, respectively.

尽管流出了，但截至3月12日，贝莱德的IBIT仍然是市场上的主要ETF，拥有近568,000 BTC。 Fidelity的FBTC和Grayscale的GBTC遵循，分别管理197,500 BTC和196,000 BTC。

Adding a political layer to the Bitcoin narrative, at least six members of President Trump’s cabinet hold Bitcoin, either directly or indirectly through ETFs.

特朗普总统内阁总统的至少六名成员直接或间接地通过ETF持有比特币叙事中的政治层面。

Among them, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the largest disclosed stake, with a Bitcoin Fidelity crypto account valued between $1 million and $5 million.

其中，卫生和公共服务部长罗伯特·肯尼迪（Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent holds between $250,001 and $500,000 worth of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. While Bessent has pledged to divest his holdings within 90 days, his position highlights the growing connection between Bitcoin and top-level U.S. policymakers.

财政部长Scott Bessent持有价值250,001至500,000美元的BlackRock的Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF。尽管Bessent承诺在90天内剥离了他的持股，但他的立场突显了比特币与美国顶级政策制定者之间日益增长的联系。

In other developments, Bitcoin’s open interest, a crucial metric showing the total value of outstanding BTC derivative contracts, has been on a downward spiral.

在其他发展中，比特币的开放兴趣是一个至关重要的度量标准，显示了未偿还BTC衍生合同的总价值，一直处于下降螺旋状态。

After peaking at $70 billion on Jan. 22, following Bitcoin’s new all-time high, open interest has been steadily declining.

在1月22日达到700亿美元的顶峰之后，在比特币的新历史最高水平之后，开放兴趣一直在稳步下降。

As Bitcoin tumbled, OI followed, dropping to a low of $45.7 billion on Mar. 11, the same day BTC hit its four-month low.

随着比特币的跌倒，OI随后跌至3月11日的低至457亿美元的低点，同一天，BTC达到了四个月的低点。

However, in the last two days, open interest has started climbing back, adding over $1 billion as of Mar. 13, in sync with BTC’s price recovery.

但是，在过去的两天中，开放兴趣已经开始攀升，截至3月13日，与BTC的价格恢复同步，增加了超过10亿美元。

The heavy ETF outflows and dropping open interest paint a picture of institutional hesitation and reduced speculative activity over the past few weeks.

沉重的ETF流出并放弃开​​放兴趣，描绘了过去几周的机构犹豫和投机活动减少的图片。

Bitcoin’s rally in January was largely fueled by strong ETF inflows and high-leveraged positions, but as soon as macro uncertainty and Trump’s trade war escalated, the market turned defensive.

比特币在一月份的集会在很大程度上是由ETF的强劲流入和高杠杆作用的推动力的，但是一旦宏观不确定性和特朗普的贸易战升级，市场就会变得防御。

The latest open interest rebound is a potential signal that traders are cautiously re-entering long positions,

最新的开放兴趣反弹是一个潜在的信号，表明交易者谨慎地重新进入长位置，