比特幣（BTC）剛剛從歷史最高的高點下降了24％ - 接下來會發生什麼？

比特幣剛剛從歷史最高點下降了24％ - 接下來會發生什麼？分析師說，BTC“非常接近其本地底部”，但是黑天鵝事件可以使其崩潰更低嗎？

Bitcoin (BTC) has slid 24% from its all-time high, sparking discussion among analysts about the cryptocurrency’s next move.

比特幣（BTC）從歷史悠久的高位中就對加密貨幣的下一步行動進行了討論，從而引發了24％的速度。

Many analysts believe that BTC is very close to its local bottom and that a technical rebound is likely in the coming days or weeks.

許多分析師認為，BTC非常接近其本地底部，並且可能在未來幾天或幾週內進行技術反彈。

However, could a Black Swan event or unexpected market turbulence send Bitcoin crashing even lower?

但是，黑天鵝事件或意外的市場動盪是否會使比特幣崩潰降低？

Macro turmoil shakes Bitcoin

宏動盪搖動比特幣

President Trump’s administration has seen a rocky start with Bitcoin, largely remaining neutral on the cryptocurrency despite campaign promises of a pro-Bitcoin stance.

特朗普總統的政府在比特幣中看到了一個艱難的開端，儘管有競選者承諾採取親甲幣立場，但仍在加密貨幣上保持中立。

Recently, there has been disappointment among crypto investors as the Trump administration has yet to make any new purchases of BTC for the strategic reserve plan, a policy initiative that some had hoped would provide a regular buying force for Bitcoin.

最近，加密貨幣投資者感到失望，因為特朗普政府尚未為戰略儲備計劃購買BTC的任何新購買，這是某些人希望為比特幣提供常規購買力的政策計劃。

On the macroeconomic side, inflation data offered a brief moment of optimism. The consumer price index rose by just 0.2% in February, slowing to an annual inflation rate of 2.8% — down from 0.5% in January.

在宏觀經濟方面，通貨膨脹數據提供了短暫的樂觀時刻。 2月份的消費者價格指數僅上漲0.2％，速度減慢到每年2.8％，低於一月份的0.5％。

The core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, also landed at 3.1%, its lowest level since April 2021.

降低食品和能源價格的核心CPI也達到了3.1％，其最低水平是2021年4月。

Markets initially reacted positively to the softer CPI data. Bitcoin pushed above $84,000, and altcoins saw double-digit gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also recorded slight upticks.

市場最初對柔和的CPI數據做出積極反應。比特幣的推高超過84,000美元，而Altcoins獲得了兩位數的收益。標準普爾500指數和納斯達克100號也記錄了輕微的上升。

However, by the afternoon, most of those gains were wiped out as Trump’s administration slapped 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Canada.

但是，到下午，由於特朗普的政府對從加拿大進口的鋼鐵和鋁製進口的稅率達到25％的關稅，因此大多數收益被消除了。

In response, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs of 25% on $21 billion worth of U.S. goods.

作為回應，加拿大宣布對價值210億美元的美國商品的報復性關稅為25％。

Just hours later, the EU announced its own tariffs on $28 billion in U.S. products, further escalating trade tensions and putting investors on edge.

幾個小時後，歐盟宣布對280億美元的美國產品的關稅，進一步升級貿易緊張局勢，並使投資者處於優勢之處。

Many investors are now shifting their focus toward a risk-off approach, seeking cash and safer assets like gold and bonds over volatile plays like Bitcoin.

現在，許多投資者將注意力轉向了風險態度，尋求現金和更安全的資產，例如黃金和債券，而不是比特幣這樣的波動性遊戲。

With multiple headwinds and a lack of clear institutional buying pressure, Bitcoin finds itself at a crossroads.

由於多種逆風和缺乏機構購買壓力，比特幣發現自己處於十字路口。

Will it manage to stabilize and gear up for another run at the all-time high, or are further corrections still on the horizon?

它會設法穩定並在歷史高處進行一次穩定，還是進一步的校正仍在範圍內？

Let’s break down the latest events and chart patterns to anticipate Bitcoin’s next move.

讓我們分解最新事件和圖表模式，以預測比特幣的下一步行動。

Bitcoin ETF outflows hit record levels as institutional money retreats

比特幣ETF流出時，隨著機構資金撤退的記錄水平

Since Feb. 13, spot Bitcoin ETFs have been facing pressure, with money flowing out at an aggressive pace.

自2月13日以來，現場比特幣ETF一直面臨壓力，貨幣以積極的速度流動。

While there were a few days of net positive inflows, they were relatively small in volume compared to the heavy outflows on most days.

雖然有幾天的淨正流入流入，但與大多數日子的流出相比，它們的體積相對較小。

The worst hit came on Feb. 25, when ETFs saw their largest single-day outflow ever — over $1 billion — highlighting a strong risk-off sentiment among institutional investors.

最嚴重的打擊是2月25日，當時ETF看到他們有史以來最大的單日流出（超過10億美元），強調了機構投資者的強烈風險情緒。

Despite the outflows, as of Mar. 12, BlackRock’s IBIT remains the dominant ETF in the market, holding nearly 568,000 BTC. Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC follow, managing 197,500 BTC and 196,000 BTC, respectively.

儘管流出了，但截至3月12日，貝萊德的IBIT仍然是市場上的主要ETF，擁有近568,000 BTC。 Fidelity的FBTC和Grayscale的GBTC遵循，分別管理197,500 BTC和196,000 BTC。

Adding a political layer to the Bitcoin narrative, at least six members of President Trump’s cabinet hold Bitcoin, either directly or indirectly through ETFs.

特朗普總統內閣總統的至少六名成員直接或間接地通過ETF持有比特幣敘事中的政治層面。

Among them, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the largest disclosed stake, with a Bitcoin Fidelity crypto account valued between $1 million and $5 million.

其中，衛生和公共服務部長羅伯特·肯尼迪（Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent holds between $250,001 and $500,000 worth of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. While Bessent has pledged to divest his holdings within 90 days, his position highlights the growing connection between Bitcoin and top-level U.S. policymakers.

財政部長Scott Bessent持有價值250,001至500,000美元的BlackRock的Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF。儘管Bessent承諾在90天內剝離了他的持股，但他的立場突顯了比特幣與美國頂級政策制定者之間日益增長的聯繫。

In other developments, Bitcoin’s open interest, a crucial metric showing the total value of outstanding BTC derivative contracts, has been on a downward spiral.

在其他發展中，比特幣的開放興趣是一個至關重要的度量標準，顯示了未償還BTC衍生合同的總價值，一直處於下降螺旋狀態。

After peaking at $70 billion on Jan. 22, following Bitcoin’s new all-time high, open interest has been steadily declining.

在1月22日達到700億美元的頂峰之後，在比特幣的新歷史最高水平之後，開放興趣一直在穩步下降。

As Bitcoin tumbled, OI followed, dropping to a low of $45.7 billion on Mar. 11, the same day BTC hit its four-month low.

隨著比特幣的跌落，OI隨後跌落，3月11日下降到457億美元的低點，同一天，BTC達到了四個月的低點。

However, in the last two days, open interest has started climbing back, adding over $1 billion as of Mar. 13, in sync with BTC’s price recovery.

但是，在過去的兩天中，開放興趣已經開始攀升，截至3月13日，與BTC的價格恢復同步，增加了超過10億美元。

The heavy ETF outflows and dropping open interest paint a picture of institutional hesitation and reduced speculative activity over the past few weeks.

沉重的ETF流出並放棄開​​放興趣，描繪了過去幾週的機構猶豫和投機活動減少的圖片。

Bitcoin’s rally in January was largely fueled by strong ETF inflows and high-leveraged positions, but as soon as macro uncertainty and Trump’s trade war escalated, the market turned defensive.

比特幣在一月份的集會在很大程度上是由ETF的強勁流入和高槓桿作用的推動力的，但是一旦宏觀不確定性和特朗普的貿易戰升級，市場就會變得防禦。

The latest open interest rebound is a potential signal that traders are cautiously re-entering long positions,

最新的開放興趣反彈是一個潛在的信號，表明交易者謹慎地重新進入長位置，