Bitcoin (BTC) Just Dropped 24% From Its All-Time High — What Happens Next?

Bitcoin just dropped 24% from its all-time high — what happens next? Analysts say BTC is “very close to its local bottom,” but could a Black Swan event send it crashing even lower?

Bitcoin (BTC) has slid 24% from its all-time high, sparking discussion among analysts about the cryptocurrency’s next move.

Many analysts believe that BTC is very close to its local bottom and that a technical rebound is likely in the coming days or weeks.

However, could a Black Swan event or unexpected market turbulence send Bitcoin crashing even lower?

Macro turmoil shakes Bitcoin

President Trump’s administration has seen a rocky start with Bitcoin, largely remaining neutral on the cryptocurrency despite campaign promises of a pro-Bitcoin stance.

Recently, there has been disappointment among crypto investors as the Trump administration has yet to make any new purchases of BTC for the strategic reserve plan, a policy initiative that some had hoped would provide a regular buying force for Bitcoin.

On the macroeconomic side, inflation data offered a brief moment of optimism. The consumer price index rose by just 0.2% in February, slowing to an annual inflation rate of 2.8% — down from 0.5% in January.

The core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, also landed at 3.1%, its lowest level since April 2021.

Markets initially reacted positively to the softer CPI data. Bitcoin pushed above $84,000, and altcoins saw double-digit gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also recorded slight upticks.

However, by the afternoon, most of those gains were wiped out as Trump’s administration slapped 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Canada.

In response, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs of 25% on $21 billion worth of U.S. goods.

Just hours later, the EU announced its own tariffs on $28 billion in U.S. products, further escalating trade tensions and putting investors on edge.

Many investors are now shifting their focus toward a risk-off approach, seeking cash and safer assets like gold and bonds over volatile plays like Bitcoin.

With multiple headwinds and a lack of clear institutional buying pressure, Bitcoin finds itself at a crossroads.

Will it manage to stabilize and gear up for another run at the all-time high, or are further corrections still on the horizon?

Let’s break down the latest events and chart patterns to anticipate Bitcoin’s next move.

Bitcoin ETF outflows hit record levels as institutional money retreats

Since Feb. 13, spot Bitcoin ETFs have been facing pressure, with money flowing out at an aggressive pace.

While there were a few days of net positive inflows, they were relatively small in volume compared to the heavy outflows on most days.

The worst hit came on Feb. 25, when ETFs saw their largest single-day outflow ever — over $1 billion — highlighting a strong risk-off sentiment among institutional investors.

Despite the outflows, as of Mar. 12, BlackRock’s IBIT remains the dominant ETF in the market, holding nearly 568,000 BTC. Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC follow, managing 197,500 BTC and 196,000 BTC, respectively.

Adding a political layer to the Bitcoin narrative, at least six members of President Trump’s cabinet hold Bitcoin, either directly or indirectly through ETFs.

Among them, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the largest disclosed stake, with a Bitcoin Fidelity crypto account valued between $1 million and $5 million.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent holds between $250,001 and $500,000 worth of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. While Bessent has pledged to divest his holdings within 90 days, his position highlights the growing connection between Bitcoin and top-level U.S. policymakers.

In other developments, Bitcoin’s open interest, a crucial metric showing the total value of outstanding BTC derivative contracts, has been on a downward spiral.

After peaking at $70 billion on Jan. 22, following Bitcoin’s new all-time high, open interest has been steadily declining.

As Bitcoin tumbled, OI followed, dropping to a low of $45.7 billion on Mar. 11, the same day BTC hit its four-month low.

However, in the last two days, open interest has started climbing back, adding over $1 billion as of Mar. 13, in sync with BTC’s price recovery.

The heavy ETF outflows and dropping open interest paint a picture of institutional hesitation and reduced speculative activity over the past few weeks.

Bitcoin’s rally in January was largely fueled by strong ETF inflows and high-leveraged positions, but as soon as macro uncertainty and Trump’s trade war escalated, the market turned defensive.

The latest open interest rebound is a potential signal that traders are cautiously re-entering long positions,