比特币（BTC）可能已经与过去的一半循环分离，这表明它可能已经达到顶峰

比特币（BTC）处于当前周期的关键点，并表明它可能与过去减半模式有所不同。与以前的周期不同的是，强烈的集会随后停止

Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical juncture in its current cycle, showing signs of diverging from past halving patterns.

比特币（BTC）在当前周期中处于关键时刻，显示出与过去减半模式不同的迹象。

While previous cycles saw vigorous rallies following halvings, this one has unfolded with more ambiguity, particularly after the recent downturn from December 2024 highs.

虽然以前的周期在过步之后看到了剧烈的集会，但这一集会表现出了更大的歧义，尤其是在2024年12月从2024年12月的高潮下降之后。

Macroeconomic shifts, new institutional influences, and even political factors, such as former President Trump’s pro-crypto stance and state-level Bitcoin adoption, have introduced unexpected variables.

宏观经济的转变，新的制度影响，甚至政治因素，例如特朗普前总统的亲克赖特托立场和州级比特币的采用，都引入了意想不到的变量。

With these new dynamics in play, the question remains: has Bitcoin already reached the peak of this cycle, or is there still room for another rally to new highs above $100,000?

有了这些新的动态，问题仍然存在：比特币已经达到了这个周期的峰值，还是仍然有其他余地进行一次集会，高于100,000美元以上的新高点？

Has BTC Detached From Other Cycles?

BTC是否脱离了其他周期？

The current Bitcoin cycle appears to be diverging from previous ones, displaying a different price trajectory compared to past halvings.

当前的比特币周期似乎与以前的比特币周期有所不同，与过去的中度相比，比特币周期显示出不同的价格轨迹。

During the 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 cycles, Bitcoin experienced substantial rallies at this point, showing promise of continuing the ascent. However, this cycle saw a surge begin in October 2024 and December 2024, followed by consolidation in January 2025 and correction by late February.

在2012-2016和2016 - 2020年的周期中，比特币在这一点上经历了大量集会，显示出继续上升的希望。但是，这个周期的激增将于2024年10月和2024年12月开始，随后在2025年1月进行了整合，并于2月下旬进行更正。

This contrasts with prior cycles, where Bitcoin continued rallying aggressively post-halving. The deviation suggests that macroeconomic factors, market structure changes, and the growing presence of institutional investors may be altering Bitcoin’s traditional cycle dynamics.

这与先前的循环形成鲜明对比，比特币继续积极地进行备注。偏差表明，宏观经济因素，市场结构的变化以及机构投资者不断增长的存在可能正在改变比特币的传统周期动态。

Unlike the retail-driven speculative booms of past halvings, Bitcoin is now treated as a more mature asset class, which in turn influences its price movement.

与过去的零售驱动的投机繁荣不同，比特币现在被视为更成熟的资产类别，这反过来又影响了其价格上涨。

Another key factor is the diminishing strength of Bitcoin’s surges as cycles progress. The exponential rallies seen in 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 far exceeded those of the 2020-2024 cycle and the current one.

另一个关键因素是随着循环的进展，比特币的涌动强度降低。 2012 - 2016年和2016 - 2020年的指数集远远超过了2020-2024周期和当前周期的指数。

While this is expected due to Bitcoin’s increasing market capitalization, it also reflects the growing influence of institutional investors, banks, and even governments. In the long term, it’s likely to introduce more stability and structured market behavior.

尽管这是由于比特币增加的市值增加，但它也反映了机构投资者，银行甚至政府的影响力日益增长。从长远来看，它可能引入更大的稳定性和结构化的市场行为。

Despite these shifts, previous cycles also had periods of consolidation and correction before resuming their uptrend. If Bitcoin follows that precedent, this phase could be a temporary reset before another upward move.

尽管发生了这些转变，但以前的周期在恢复上升趋势之前也有合并和校正的时期。如果比特币遵循这一先例，则此阶段可能是临时重置，然后再向上移动。

However, given the structural changes in the market, this cycle could unfold differently, with less extreme volatility but a more prolonged and sustainable price appreciation rather than the explosive parabolic tops of the past.

但是，鉴于市场的结构变化，这种周期的发展可能会有所不同，而且极端波动率较小，但价格更长，更可持续的价格升值，而不是过去的爆炸性抛物线层。

Long-Term Holder MVRV Signals a Shift in Cycle Dynamics

长期持有人MVRV信号循环动态变化

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV ratio clearly demonstrates a pattern of diminishing returns across cycles. In the 2016-2020 cycle, LTH MVRV peaked at 35.8, reflecting an extreme level of unrealized profit among long-term holders before distribution began.

比特币的长期持有人（LTH）MVRV比率清楚地表明了跨周期的回报减少的模式。在2016 - 2020年的周期中，LTH MVRV达到35.8的峰值，反映了分配开始之前长期持有人之间未实现的利润的极端水平。

By the 2020-2024 cycle, this peak had dropped significantly to 12.2. It showed a lower overall multiple of unrealized profits despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs.

到2020-2024周期，该峰已显着下降至12.2。尽管比特币达到了新的历史新高，但它显示出未实现的利润的总倍数较低。

In the current cycle, LTH MVRV has so far only peaked at 4.35, indicating that long-term holders have not seen nearly the same level of liquid profits as in past cycles.

在当前周期中，LTH MVRV到目前为止仅在4.35处达到峰值，这表明长期持有人的液体利润水平几乎没有与过去周期相同的水平。

This sharp decline across cycles suggests that Bitcoin’s upside potential is compressing over time, which aligns with the broader trend of diminishing returns as the asset matures and market structure changes.

整个周期的这种急剧下降表明，随着时间的流逝，比特币的上升潜力正在压缩，这与资产成熟和市场结构变化随着回报的更大趋势的趋势保持一致。

This data implies that Bitcoin’s cyclical growth phases are becoming less explosive. This is likely due to the increasing influence of institutional investors and a more efficient market.

该数据意味着比特币的周期性生长阶段变得越来越爆发。这可能是由于机构投资者和更有效的市场的影响不断增加。

As the market cap expands, significantly more capital inflows are required to drive the same percentage gains seen in early cycles.

随着市值的扩大，需要更多的资本流入才能推动早期周期中相同的百分比增长。

While this could suggest that Bitcoin’s long-term growth is stabilizing, it does not necessarily confirm that the cycle has already peaked.

尽管这可能表明比特币的长期增长正在稳定，但不一定确认该周期已经达到顶峰。

Previous cycles have had periods of consolidation before reaching final highs. Also, institutional participation could lead to more prolonged accumulation phases rather than sudden blow-off tops.

以前的周期在达到最终高点之前已经有合并的时期。同样，机构参与可能会导致更长的积累阶段，而不是突然的吹风顶部。

However, if diminishing MVRV peaks continue, it could mean Bitcoin’s ability to deliver extreme cycle-based returns is fading, and this cycle may already be past its most aggressive growth phase.

但是，如果MVRV峰值降低，则可能意味着比特币提供基于周期的循环回报的能力正在逐渐消失，并且该周期可能已经超过了其最具侵略性的增长阶段。

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook

比特币的长期前景

Despite the differences in this cycle, experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, particularly with increasing adoption at the state level.

尽管这一周期有所不同，但专家对比特币的长期前景仍然乐观，尤其是在州一级采用的情况下。

Harrison Seletsky, director of business development at SPACE ID, told BeInCrypto:

Space ID业务发展总监Harrison Seletsky告诉Beincrypto：

“Expectations were running high ahead of Friday’s White House Crypto Summit, but the aftermath was somewhat anticlimactic. The market didn’t react with as much excitement since the US is currently holding their confiscated BTC instead of actively buying more. However, there’s a lot more to be excited about than the market is pricing in. It’s encouraging to see

“在周五的白宫加密峰会之前，期望的期望很高，但后果有些反式。市场没有那么多兴奋的反应，因为美国目前正在持有其被没收的BTC，而不是积极购买更多。但是，比市场定价要兴奋得多。看到