比特幣（BTC）可能已經與過去的一半循環分離，這表明它可能已經達到頂峰

比特幣（BTC）處於當前週期的關鍵點，並表明它可能與過去減半模式有所不同。與以前的周期不同的是，強烈的集會隨後停止

Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical juncture in its current cycle, showing signs of diverging from past halving patterns.

比特幣（BTC）在當前週期中處於關鍵時刻，顯示出與過去減半模式不同的跡象。

While previous cycles saw vigorous rallies following halvings, this one has unfolded with more ambiguity, particularly after the recent downturn from December 2024 highs.

雖然以前的周期在過步之後看到了劇烈的集會，但這一集會表現出了更大的歧義，尤其是在2024年12月從2024年12月的高潮下降之後。

Macroeconomic shifts, new institutional influences, and even political factors, such as former President Trump’s pro-crypto stance and state-level Bitcoin adoption, have introduced unexpected variables.

宏觀經濟的轉變，新的製度影響，甚至政治因素，例如特朗普前總統的親克賴特托立場和州級比特幣的採用，都引入了意想不到的變量。

With these new dynamics in play, the question remains: has Bitcoin already reached the peak of this cycle, or is there still room for another rally to new highs above $100,000?

有了這些新的動態，問題仍然存在：比特幣已經達到了這個週期的峰值，還是仍然有其他餘地進行一次集會，高於100,000美元以上的新高點？

Has BTC Detached From Other Cycles?

BTC是否脫離了其他週期？

The current Bitcoin cycle appears to be diverging from previous ones, displaying a different price trajectory compared to past halvings.

當前的比特幣週期似乎與以前的比特幣週期有所不同，與過去的中度相比，比特幣週期顯示出不同的價格軌跡。

During the 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 cycles, Bitcoin experienced substantial rallies at this point, showing promise of continuing the ascent. However, this cycle saw a surge begin in October 2024 and December 2024, followed by consolidation in January 2025 and correction by late February.

在2012-2016和2016 - 2020年的周期中，比特幣在這一點上經歷了大量集會，顯示出繼續上升的希望。但是，這個週期的激增將於2024年10月和2024年12月開始，隨後在2025年1月進行了整合，並於2月下旬進行更正。

This contrasts with prior cycles, where Bitcoin continued rallying aggressively post-halving. The deviation suggests that macroeconomic factors, market structure changes, and the growing presence of institutional investors may be altering Bitcoin’s traditional cycle dynamics.

這與先前的循環形成鮮明對比，比特幣繼續積極地進行備註。偏差表明，宏觀經濟因素，市場結構的變化以及機構投資者不斷增長的存在可能正在改變比特幣的傳統週期動態。

Unlike the retail-driven speculative booms of past halvings, Bitcoin is now treated as a more mature asset class, which in turn influences its price movement.

與過去的零售驅動的投機繁榮不同，比特幣現在被視為更成熟的資產類別，這反過來又影響了其價格上漲。

Another key factor is the diminishing strength of Bitcoin’s surges as cycles progress. The exponential rallies seen in 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 far exceeded those of the 2020-2024 cycle and the current one.

另一個關鍵因素是隨著循環的進展，比特幣的湧動強度降低。 2012 - 2016年和2016 - 2020年的指數集遠遠超過了2020-2024週期和當前週期的指數。

While this is expected due to Bitcoin’s increasing market capitalization, it also reflects the growing influence of institutional investors, banks, and even governments. In the long term, it’s likely to introduce more stability and structured market behavior.

儘管這是由於比特幣增加的市值增加，但它也反映了機構投資者，銀行甚至政府的影響力日益增長。從長遠來看，它可能引入更大的穩定性和結構化的市場行為。

Despite these shifts, previous cycles also had periods of consolidation and correction before resuming their uptrend. If Bitcoin follows that precedent, this phase could be a temporary reset before another upward move.

儘管發生了這些轉變，但以前的周期在恢復上升趨勢之前也有合併和校正的時期。如果比特幣遵循這一先例，則此階段可能是臨時重置，然後再向上移動。

However, given the structural changes in the market, this cycle could unfold differently, with less extreme volatility but a more prolonged and sustainable price appreciation rather than the explosive parabolic tops of the past.

但是，鑑於市場的結構變化，這種週期的發展可能會有所不同，而且極端波動率較小，但價格更長，更可持續的價格升值，而不是過去的爆炸性拋物線層。

Long-Term Holder MVRV Signals a Shift in Cycle Dynamics

長期持有人MVRV信號循環動態變化

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV ratio clearly demonstrates a pattern of diminishing returns across cycles. In the 2016-2020 cycle, LTH MVRV peaked at 35.8, reflecting an extreme level of unrealized profit among long-term holders before distribution began.

比特幣的長期持有人（LTH）MVRV比率清楚地表明了跨週期的回報減少的模式。在2016 - 2020年的周期中，LTH MVRV達到35.8的峰值，反映了分配開始之前長期持有人之間未實現的利潤的極端水平。

By the 2020-2024 cycle, this peak had dropped significantly to 12.2. It showed a lower overall multiple of unrealized profits despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs.

到2020-2024週期，該峰已顯著下降至12.2。儘管比特幣達到了新的歷史新高，但它顯示出未實現的利潤的總倍數較低。

In the current cycle, LTH MVRV has so far only peaked at 4.35, indicating that long-term holders have not seen nearly the same level of liquid profits as in past cycles.

在當前週期中，LTH MVRV到目前為止僅在4.35處達到峰值，這表明長期持有人的液體利潤水平幾乎沒有與過去週期相同的水平。

This sharp decline across cycles suggests that Bitcoin’s upside potential is compressing over time, which aligns with the broader trend of diminishing returns as the asset matures and market structure changes.

整個週期的這種急劇下降表明，隨著時間的流逝，比特幣的上升潛力正在壓縮，這與資產成熟和市場結構變化隨著回報的更大趨勢的趨勢保持一致。

This data implies that Bitcoin’s cyclical growth phases are becoming less explosive. This is likely due to the increasing influence of institutional investors and a more efficient market.

該數據意味著比特幣的周期性生長階段變得越來越爆發。這可能是由於機構投資者和更有效的市場的影響不斷增加。

As the market cap expands, significantly more capital inflows are required to drive the same percentage gains seen in early cycles.

隨著市值的擴大，需要更多的資本流入才能推動早期週期中相同的百分比增長。

While this could suggest that Bitcoin’s long-term growth is stabilizing, it does not necessarily confirm that the cycle has already peaked.

儘管這可能表明比特幣的長期增長正在穩定，但不一定確認該週期已經達到頂峰。

Previous cycles have had periods of consolidation before reaching final highs. Also, institutional participation could lead to more prolonged accumulation phases rather than sudden blow-off tops.

以前的周期在達到最終高點之前已經有合併的時期。同樣，機構參與可能會導致更長的積累階段，而不是突然的吹風頂部。

However, if diminishing MVRV peaks continue, it could mean Bitcoin’s ability to deliver extreme cycle-based returns is fading, and this cycle may already be past its most aggressive growth phase.

但是，如果MVRV峰值降低，則可能意味著比特幣提供基於週期的循環回報的能力正在逐漸消失，並且該週期可能已經超過了其最具侵略性的增長階段。

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook

比特幣的長期前景

Despite the differences in this cycle, experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, particularly with increasing adoption at the state level.

儘管這一周期有所不同，但專家對比特幣的長期前景仍然樂觀，尤其是在州一級採用的情況下。

Harrison Seletsky, director of business development at SPACE ID, told BeInCrypto:

Space ID業務發展總監Harrison Seletsky告訴Beincrypto：

“Expectations were running high ahead of Friday’s White House Crypto Summit, but the aftermath was somewhat anticlimactic. The market didn’t react with as much excitement since the US is currently holding their confiscated BTC instead of actively buying more. However, there’s a lot more to be excited about than the market is pricing in. It’s encouraging to see

“在周五的白宮加密峰會之前，期望的期望很高，但後果有些反式。市場沒有那麼多興奮的反應，因為美國目前正在持有其被沒收的BTC，而不是積極購買更多。但是，比市場定價要興奮得多。看到