比特币（BTC）继续落后于黄金

尽管这两种资产都受到类似的宏观经济力的影响，但比特币（BTC）仍在落后于黄金。

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to lag behind gold despite both assets being influenced by similar macroeconomic forces. While gold remains near all-time highs, Bitcoin is currently experiencing a 15% to 20% drawdown. According to Fidelity, the difference in price action may stem from market maturity and investor behavior.

尽管这两种资产都受到类似的宏观经济力量的影响，但比特币（BTC）仍继续落后于黄金。尽管黄金仍然接近历史最高点，但比特币目前正在经历15％至20％的缩水。根据富达的说法，价格行动的差异可能源于市场成熟度和投资者的行为。

Bitcoin Shows Minimal Reaction Despite Favorable Macro Conditions

尽管宏观条件良好，但比特币显示出最小的反应

Bitcoin has shown a minimal reaction to current macroeconomic indicators despite rising expectations about liquidity situations and intensified inflation worries. As Fidelity’s director of research for digital assets, Chris Kuiper, explains, the weakness may be linked to Bitcoin’s market being driven by retail traders. The gold market remains firmly under the control of institutional players and these players tend to be the main initiators of reactions to major macroeconomic changes.

尽管对流动性情况的期望和通货膨胀率加剧，比特币对当前宏观经济指标的反应最少。正如Fidelity的数字资产研究总监Chris Kuiper解释说的那样，弱点可能与零售商人驱动的比特币市场有关。黄金市场仍然坚定地受到机构参与者的控制，这些参与者往往是对重大宏观经济变化的反应的主要启动者。

“The market does move in cycles, and we’re seeing that play out now with Bitcoin lagging despite the favorable macro backdrop. This could be due to the market structure and how it’s maturing. For example, we’re seeing a shift in investor behavior with institutions exiting their bullish positions in gold and pivoting to allocate capital to Bitcoin.”

“市场确实在循环中移动，尽管有良好的宏观背景，但我们现在看到比特币落后的情况现在都在发挥作用。这可能是由于市场结构及其成熟。例如，我们看到投资者行为的变化，机构退出了他们在黄金中的看涨位置，并将资本分配给比特币。”

Kuiper continues: “The interesting observation is that the Bitcoin market moves in increments with the size of the gold market. We’re used to seeing large increments in the gold market with respect to liquidity and macroeconomic changes, and afterwards, we see Bitcoin follow suit.”

Kuiper继续说：“有趣的观察结果是，比特币市场随着黄金市场的规模而增长。我们习惯于在流动性和宏观经济变化方面看到黄金市场的大量增长，然后，我们看到比特币效仿了。”

Bitcoin reached new record nominal prices in late 2023, but its value relative to gold remained at the same levels. The cryptocurrency usually exhibits the same behavior by performing worse than gold price increases before finally gaining ground. According to Kuiper, the Bitcoin market grows in line with the behavior of the gold market when there are changes in liquidity.

比特币在2023年末达到了新创纪录的名义价格，但其相对于黄金的价值保持在相同的水平。加密货币通常表现出相同的行为，其性能比黄金价格上涨更糟糕，然后才能最终获得基础。根据Kuiper的说法，当流动性发生变化时，比特币市场随着黄金市场的行为而增长。

Reliable market statistics show that gold increased about 70% in price from 2019 until 2020, but Bitcoin experienced limited movement in the same period. Afterwards, with the time difference, Bitcoin demonstrated a significant price growth of more than 100% following the expiration of gold’s surge period. As analysts confirm, macro market drivers tend to initiate in gold prices before being followed by changes in the Bitcoin movement.

可靠的市场统计数据表明，从2019年到2020年，黄金的价格上涨了约70％，但比特币在同一时期的行动有限。之后，随着时间差异，比特币在黄金浪涌期到期后的价格增长超过100％。正如分析师确认的那样，宏观市场驱动因素倾向于以黄金价格发起，然后随后比特币运动发生了变化。

Gold Remains Resilient as Institutional Demand Holds Strong

由于机构需求的强劲，黄金仍然具有弹性

Gold continues to hold strong levels amid persistent inflation concerns and expectations of further liquidity expansion. The demand for gold continues to increase as large institutional investors prefer it for its status as a safe haven investment. Due to investor trust, the precious metal provides early indications about shifts in the macroeconomic framework.

在持续的通货膨胀问题和对进一步流动性扩展的期望中，黄金继续保持强劲的水平。由于大型机构投资者更喜欢它作为避风港投资的地位，因此对黄金的需求继续增加。由于投资者的信任，贵金属提供了有关宏观经济框架转变的早期迹象。

The global asset class status of gold shows it is well-suited for this role because institutional investors, including central banks and hedge funds, strongly support it. These institutions tend to react quickly to macro-level changes by sensing upcoming policy changes and liquidity increases. The investors’ initial interest in purchasing gold later induces market movements that affect Bitcoin alongside other investment vehicles.

黄金的全球资产级地位表明，它非常适合该职位，因为包括中央银行和对冲基金在内的机构投资者强烈支持它。这些机构倾向于通过感知即将到来的政策变化和流动性增加来迅速对宏观变化做出反应。投资者对购买黄金的最初兴趣后来引起了与其他投资工具一起影响比特币的市场变动。

The macroeconomic indicators that gold reveals tend to occur in advance of Bitcoin according to a macroeconomic analysis by Fidelity. The basis of gold’s investment value is that it serves large-scale investors in the long term yet Bitcoin functions through market speculations, which are completed by a smaller group of investors. The differences in their behavior patterns account for the delay between price changes in these financial products.

根据富达宏观经济分析，黄金揭示的宏观经济指标倾向于在比特币之前发生。黄金投资价值的基础是，从长远来看，它通过市场猜测为大规模投资者提供服务，这些投资者由较小的投资者组成。其行为模式的差异解释了这些金融产品价格变化之间的延迟。

The market shows that Bitcoin will recover its strength when gold prices stop escalating. The market displayed this pattern when liquidity stayed favorable, and expectations of inflation continued. When investors reach their maximum returns from gold-based assets, they start investing in Bitcoin to maximize their returns.

市场表明，当黄金价格停止升级时，比特币将恢复其实力。当流动性保持良好时，市场表现出这种模式，并且对通货膨胀的期望持续。当投资者从基于黄金的资产中获得最大回报时，他们开始投资比特币以最大程度地提高收益。