比特幣（BTC）繼續落後於黃金

儘管這兩種資產都受到類似的宏觀經濟力的影響，但比特幣（BTC）仍在落後於黃金。

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to lag behind gold despite both assets being influenced by similar macroeconomic forces. While gold remains near all-time highs, Bitcoin is currently experiencing a 15% to 20% drawdown. According to Fidelity, the difference in price action may stem from market maturity and investor behavior.

儘管這兩種資產都受到類似的宏觀經濟力量的影響，但比特幣（BTC）仍繼續落後於黃金。儘管黃金仍然接近歷史最高點，但比特幣目前正在經歷15％至20％的縮水。根據富達的說法，價格行動的差異可能源於市場成熟度和投資者的行為。

Bitcoin Shows Minimal Reaction Despite Favorable Macro Conditions

儘管宏觀條件良好，但比特幣顯示出最小的反應

Bitcoin has shown a minimal reaction to current macroeconomic indicators despite rising expectations about liquidity situations and intensified inflation worries. As Fidelity’s director of research for digital assets, Chris Kuiper, explains, the weakness may be linked to Bitcoin’s market being driven by retail traders. The gold market remains firmly under the control of institutional players and these players tend to be the main initiators of reactions to major macroeconomic changes.

儘管對流動性情況的期望和通貨膨脹率加劇，比特幣對當前宏觀經濟指標的反應最少。正如Fidelity的數字資產研究總監Chris Kuiper解釋說的那樣，弱點可能與零售商人驅動的比特幣市場有關。黃金市場仍然堅定地受到機構參與者的控制，這些參與者往往是對重大宏觀經濟變化的反應的主要啟動者。

“The market does move in cycles, and we’re seeing that play out now with Bitcoin lagging despite the favorable macro backdrop. This could be due to the market structure and how it’s maturing. For example, we’re seeing a shift in investor behavior with institutions exiting their bullish positions in gold and pivoting to allocate capital to Bitcoin.”

“市場確實在循環中移動，儘管有良好的宏觀背景，但我們現在看到比特幣落後的情況現在都在發揮作用。這可能是由於市場結構及其成熟。例如，我們看到投資者行為的變化，機構退出了他們在黃金中的看漲位置，並將資本分配給比特幣。”

Kuiper continues: “The interesting observation is that the Bitcoin market moves in increments with the size of the gold market. We’re used to seeing large increments in the gold market with respect to liquidity and macroeconomic changes, and afterwards, we see Bitcoin follow suit.”

Kuiper繼續說：“有趣的觀察結果是，比特幣市場隨著黃金市場的規模而增長。我們習慣於在流動性和宏觀經濟變化方面看到黃金市場的大量增長，然後，我們看到比特幣效仿了。”

Bitcoin reached new record nominal prices in late 2023, but its value relative to gold remained at the same levels. The cryptocurrency usually exhibits the same behavior by performing worse than gold price increases before finally gaining ground. According to Kuiper, the Bitcoin market grows in line with the behavior of the gold market when there are changes in liquidity.

比特幣在2023年末達到了新創紀錄的名義價格，但其相對於黃金的價值保持在相同的水平。加密貨幣通常表現出相同的行為，其性能比黃金價格上漲更糟糕，然後才能最終獲得基礎。根據Kuiper的說法，當流動性發生變化時，比特幣市場隨著黃金市場的行為而增長。

Reliable market statistics show that gold increased about 70% in price from 2019 until 2020, but Bitcoin experienced limited movement in the same period. Afterwards, with the time difference, Bitcoin demonstrated a significant price growth of more than 100% following the expiration of gold’s surge period. As analysts confirm, macro market drivers tend to initiate in gold prices before being followed by changes in the Bitcoin movement.

可靠的市場統計數據表明，從2019年到2020年，黃金的價格上漲了約70％，但比特幣在同一時期的行動有限。之後，隨著時間差異，比特幣在黃金浪湧期到期後的價格增長超過100％。正如分析師確認的那樣，宏觀市場驅動因素傾向於以黃金價格發起，然後隨後比特幣運動發生了變化。

Gold Remains Resilient as Institutional Demand Holds Strong

由於機構需求的強勁，黃金仍然具有彈性

Gold continues to hold strong levels amid persistent inflation concerns and expectations of further liquidity expansion. The demand for gold continues to increase as large institutional investors prefer it for its status as a safe haven investment. Due to investor trust, the precious metal provides early indications about shifts in the macroeconomic framework.

在持續的通貨膨脹問題和對進一步流動性擴展的期望中，黃金繼續保持強勁的水平。由於大型機構投資者更喜歡它作為避風港投資的地位，因此對黃金的需求繼續增加。由於投資者的信任，貴金屬提供了有關宏觀經濟框架轉變的早期跡象。

The global asset class status of gold shows it is well-suited for this role because institutional investors, including central banks and hedge funds, strongly support it. These institutions tend to react quickly to macro-level changes by sensing upcoming policy changes and liquidity increases. The investors’ initial interest in purchasing gold later induces market movements that affect Bitcoin alongside other investment vehicles.

黃金的全球資產級地位表明，它非常適合該職位，因為包括中央銀行和對沖基金在內的機構投資者強烈支持它。這些機構傾向於通過感知即將到來的政策變化和流動性增加來迅速對宏觀變化做出反應。投資者對購買黃金的最初興趣後來引起了與其他投資工具一起影響比特幣的市場變動。

The macroeconomic indicators that gold reveals tend to occur in advance of Bitcoin according to a macroeconomic analysis by Fidelity. The basis of gold’s investment value is that it serves large-scale investors in the long term yet Bitcoin functions through market speculations, which are completed by a smaller group of investors. The differences in their behavior patterns account for the delay between price changes in these financial products.

根據富達宏觀經濟分析，黃金揭示的宏觀經濟指標傾向於在比特幣之前發生。黃金投資價值的基礎是，從長遠來看，它通過市場猜測為大規模投資者提供服務，這些投資者由較小的投資者組成。其行為模式的差異解釋了這些金融產品價格變化之間的延遲。

The market shows that Bitcoin will recover its strength when gold prices stop escalating. The market displayed this pattern when liquidity stayed favorable, and expectations of inflation continued. When investors reach their maximum returns from gold-based assets, they start investing in Bitcoin to maximize their returns.

市場表明，當黃金價格停止升級時，比特幣將恢復其實力。當流動性保持良好時，市場表現出這種模式，並且對通貨膨脹的期望持續。當投資者從基於黃金的資產中獲得最大回報時，他們開始投資比特幣以最大程度地提高收益。