匿名交易员 The Flow Horse 表示，比特币 (BTC) 需要征服 80,000 美元水平才能继续牛市

一位备受关注的加密货币交易员认为，80,000 美元现在是比特币 (BTC) 的最重要水平。

A closely followed crypto trader believes $80,000 is now the most critical level for Bitcoin (BTC).

一位备受关注的加密货币交易员认为，80,000 美元现在是比特币 (BTC) 最关键的水平。

Pseudonymous trader The Flow Horse tells his 238,100 followers on the social media platform X that how Bitcoin handles a potential surge to around $80,000 may determine if the bull market continues.

匿名交易员 The Flow Horse 在社交媒体平台 X 上告诉他的 238,100 名粉丝，比特币如何应对潜在的飙升至 80,000 美元左右的情况可能会决定牛市是否继续。

“The biggest test for Bitcoin isn’t here, nor does it depend on which [US] President takes the seat. In my opinion, it’s all about the $80,000 handle. All systems should be ‘GO’ for an all-time high break. If the market tags a big number like that – or comes close but falls just short – and then drops back into the previous range, it’s curtains for a bit. Yeah, $100,000 plus over time, but the path there isn’t set in stone, and my decisions are somewhat path-dependent based on opportunity cost.”

“对比特币的最大考验并不在这里，也不取决于哪位[美国]总统就任。在我看来，这一切都与 80,000 美元的手柄有关。所有系统都应该“GO”以达到历史新高。如果市场出现这样大的数字——或者接近但略低于预期——然后回落到之前的范围，那么市场就会暂时陷入困境。是的，随着时间的推移，10 万美元以上，但道路并不是一成不变的，我的决定在某种程度上取决于机会成本的路径。”

The Flow Horse also told his Telegram channel that investors suddenly appeared to be leaning bearish heading into Election Day for the US president.

Flow Horse 还告诉他的 Telegram 频道，在美国总统选举日到来之际，投资者似乎突然倾向于看跌。

“Just to highlight a point I made over a week ago, at this percentage off the highs, there is really no reality in which we don’t take the highs at a minimum. So even though risk has come off a bit after the Kamala [Harris] odds shift on betting markets, I think you still have to keep that in mind…

“只是为了强调我一周前提出的一个观点，按照这个离高点的百分比，我们确实没有不至少达到高点的现实。因此，尽管在博彩市场上卡马拉[哈里斯]赔率发生变化后风险有所下降，但我认为您仍然必须牢记这一点......

Basically all of the risk and buying run up from October 26th to the high was taken off, and it kind of looks like it was one large player buying pre-breakout. Briefly during that period perps (perpetual contracts) were trading above the spot markets for the first time in months, and now we are back to them trading at a discount. I think you can assume after this recent spook, people are hedging off risk and possibly shorting since the RR (risk-reward) is great for HTF (high timeframe) shorts, given the invalidation is so close. The idea might not be attractive, but the fact that you can know you are wrong very quickly and closely is.”

基本上，从 10 月 26 日到高点的所有风险和买盘都被取消了，看起来像是一个大玩家在突破前买盘。在此期间，永续合约（永续合约）的交易价格在几个月内首次高于现货市场，现在我们又以折扣价进行交易。我认为你可以假设，在最近的这次恐慌之后，人们正在对冲风险，并可能做空，因为考虑到失效如此接近，RR（风险回报）对于 HTF（高时间框架）空头来说非常好。这个想法可能并不吸引人，但事实上你可以很快、很清楚地知道自己错了。”

He also believes Bitcoin needs to hold $67,500 as support to remain in an uptrend.

他还认为，比特币需要守住 67,500 美元作为支撑才能保持上升趋势。

“I think you want to see the weekend lows maintain ($67,500). That level is the topside of a prior supply zone we flipped, and a trendline (memeline) we flipped as well. A lot of very simple momentum arguments hinge around these recent shifts, so not that a loss of it invalidates the bigger picture, but it probably does start to make the flow a bit more bearish.”

“我认为您希望看到周末低点维持不变（67,500 美元）。该水平是我们翻转的先前供应区域的顶部，也是我们翻转的趋势线（memeline）。许多非常简单的动量论点都围绕着最近的这些变化，因此，失去它并不会使大局变得无效，但它可能确实开始使资金流变得更加悲观。”

Bitcoin is trading for $74,839 at time of writing, up 9.2% in the last 24 hours.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 74,839 美元，在过去 24 小时内上涨 9.2%。