匿名交易員 The Flow Horse 表示，比特幣 (BTC) 需要征服 80,000 美元水平才能繼續牛市

一位備受關注的加密貨幣交易員認為，80,000 美元現在是比特幣 (BTC) 的最重要水平。

A closely followed crypto trader believes $80,000 is now the most critical level for Bitcoin (BTC).

一位備受關注的加密貨幣交易員認為，8 萬美元現在是比特幣 (BTC) 最關鍵的水平。

Pseudonymous trader The Flow Horse tells his 238,100 followers on the social media platform X that how Bitcoin handles a potential surge to around $80,000 may determine if the bull market continues.

匿名交易員 The Flow Horse 在社交媒體平台 X 上告訴他的 238,100 名粉絲，比特幣如何應對潛在的飆升至 80,000 美元左右的情況可能會決定牛市是否繼續。

“The biggest test for Bitcoin isn’t here, nor does it depend on which [US] President takes the seat. In my opinion, it’s all about the $80,000 handle. All systems should be ‘GO’ for an all-time high break. If the market tags a big number like that – or comes close but falls just short – and then drops back into the previous range, it’s curtains for a bit. Yeah, $100,000 plus over time, but the path there isn’t set in stone, and my decisions are somewhat path-dependent based on opportunity cost.”

「比特幣的最大考驗並不在這裡，也不取決於哪位[美國]總統就任。在我看來，這一切都與 80,000 美元的手柄有關。所有系統都應該“GO”以達到歷史新高。如果市場出現如此大的數字——或者接近但略低於預期——然後回落到之前的範圍，那麼市場就會暫時陷入困境。是的，隨著時間的推移，10 萬美元以上，但道路並不是一成不變的，我的決定在某種程度上取決於機會成本的路徑。

The Flow Horse also told his Telegram channel that investors suddenly appeared to be leaning bearish heading into Election Day for the US president.

Flow Horse 也告訴他的 Telegram 頻道，在美國總統選舉日到來之際，投資人似乎突然傾向看跌。

“Just to highlight a point I made over a week ago, at this percentage off the highs, there is really no reality in which we don’t take the highs at a minimum. So even though risk has come off a bit after the Kamala [Harris] odds shift on betting markets, I think you still have to keep that in mind…

「只是為了強調我一週前提出的一個觀點，按照這個離高點的百分比，我們確實沒有不至少達到高點的現實。因此，儘管在投注市場上卡馬拉[哈里斯]賠率發生變化後風險有所下降，但我認為您仍然必須牢記這一點...

Basically all of the risk and buying run up from October 26th to the high was taken off, and it kind of looks like it was one large player buying pre-breakout. Briefly during that period perps (perpetual contracts) were trading above the spot markets for the first time in months, and now we are back to them trading at a discount. I think you can assume after this recent spook, people are hedging off risk and possibly shorting since the RR (risk-reward) is great for HTF (high timeframe) shorts, given the invalidation is so close. The idea might not be attractive, but the fact that you can know you are wrong very quickly and closely is.”

基本上，從 10 月 26 日到高點的所有風險和買盤都被取消了，看起來像是一個大玩家在突破前買盤。在此期間，永續合約（永續合約）的交易價格在幾個月內首次高於現貨市場，現在我們又以折扣價進行交易。我認為你可以假設，在最近的這次恐慌之後，人們正在對沖風險，並可能做空，因為考慮到失效如此接近，RR（風險回報）對於 HTF（高時間框架）空頭來說非常好。這個想法可能並不吸引人，但事實上你可以很快、很清楚地知道自己錯了。

He also believes Bitcoin needs to hold $67,500 as support to remain in an uptrend.

他還認為，比特幣需要守住 67,500 美元作為支撐才能保持上升趨勢。

“I think you want to see the weekend lows maintain ($67,500). That level is the topside of a prior supply zone we flipped, and a trendline (memeline) we flipped as well. A lot of very simple momentum arguments hinge around these recent shifts, so not that a loss of it invalidates the bigger picture, but it probably does start to make the flow a bit more bearish.”

「我認為您希望看到週末低點保持不變（67,500 美元）。該水平是我們翻轉的先前供應區域的頂部，也是我們翻轉的趨勢線（memeline）。許多非常簡單的動量論點都圍繞著最近的這些變化，因此，失去它並不會使大局變得無效，但它可能確實開始使資金流變得更加悲觀。

Bitcoin is trading for $74,839 at time of writing, up 9.2% in the last 24 hours.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 74,839 美元，在過去 24 小時內上漲 9.2%。