比特币（BTC）和即将到来的估算：为什么BTC注定了经济学

股票交易员，加密兄弟和资产拖鞋目前正在遭受最大的痛苦。

Stock traders, crypto bros, and asset flippers are currently experiencing maximum pain.

股票交易员，加密兄弟和资产拖鞋目前正在遭受最大的痛苦。

In two days out of the past two weeks, U.S. equities have erased more than $1 trillion in value, and digital currency markets are down heavily.

在过去的两周中，美国股票的价值超过1万亿美元，数字货币市场的下降幅度很大。

It’s a hot mess, and while stocks are not quite in a bear market (yet), most digital currencies, including BTC, are well into one.

这是一团糟，尽管库存还不够在熊市中（尚未），但包括BTC在内的大多数数字货币都归功于一项。

With BTC hovering just over $80K after peaking at $109K in January, the only way to avoid calling it a bear market is to deny reality. According to Investopedia, a prolonged correction of 20% or more is the accepted definition of one.

一月份达到高峰的高峰为10.9万美元之后，BTC徘徊在$ 8.0万美元之后，避免将其称为熊市的唯一方法就是否认现实。根据Investopedia的说法，公认的一个人的延长校正是一个或更多的校正。

That’s not to say that things can’t turn around, but with a global trade war underway and bond yields spiking across the globe, it’s not looking great for risk assets. Investors are piling into gold and cash, and until there’s a macro reason to do otherwise, that’s likely how things will remain.

这并不是说事情不能转移，但是随着全球贸易战的进行，债券在全球范围内产生飙升，这对于风险资产来说并不理想。投资者正在堆积黄金和现金，直到有宏观理由去做否则，这可能是如何保留的。

Why not BTC, the so-called superior store of value?

为什么不，即所谓的高级价值存储BTC？

Except for the COVID crash, which was short-lived (two months) and followed by massive monetary stimulus, BTC has never been tested as a store of value in difficult market conditions.

除了短暂的（两个月），其次是大规模货币刺激外，BTC从未被视为在困难的市场条件下的价值存储。

At CoinGeek, we’ve already explained why BTC has doomed economics and have expressed many times that Bitcoin is not a store of value. However, it has been difficult to get people to listen, given how the endless printing of fiat currency and low interest rates have created easy times for speculators since the 2008 financial crisis.

在Coingeek，我们已经解释了为什么BTC注定要经济学，并且多次表明比特币不是价值的存储。但是，鉴于自2008年金融危机以来，菲亚特货币和低利率的无尽印刷如何为投机者创造了轻松的时光，因此很难让人们倾听。

If U.S. President Donald Trump is serious about keeping tariffs in place and is willing to endure a recession to force change, this will be the first ‘proper’ one in 17 years. Many younger traders have never experienced a protracted recession and have no idea just how brutal they can be.

如果美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）认真考虑将关税保持在适当的位置，并且愿意忍受迫使迫使变革的经济衰退，那么这将是17年来的第一个“适当”。许多年轻的商人从未经历过旷日持久的经济衰退，也不知道他们会多么残酷。

While it’s too soon to say whether a recession, depression or even full-blown debt crisis will happen, we can already see that the market has chosen gold over BTC in times of fear and uncertainty. Why? Bitcoin was never supposed to be a store of value, doesn’t have the millennia of credibility gold has, and is associated with an industry full of scams, rip-offs, and lies.

虽然现在说衰退，抑郁症甚至是成熟的债务危机还为时过早，但我们已经可以看到，在恐惧和不确定性时期，市场选择了黄金而不是BTC。为什么？比特币从来都不应该是一种价值的存储，没有黄金信誉的数千年，并且与充满骗局，抢劫和谎言的行业有关。

Bitcoin is peer-to-peer electronic cash

比特币是点对点电子现金

Despite doing their damnedest to convince the world otherwise, BTC maximalists like Michael Saylor have failed to position BTC as a superior store of value to gold. While it’s still up since the 2024 halving, it has pulled back sharply amid the recent uncertainty, whereas gold has continued its bull run.

尽管采取了最卑鄙的人来说服世界，但像迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）这样的BTC最大化主义者未能将BTC定位为黄金的优越储备。虽然自2024年减半以来，它仍然在最近的不确定性中急剧退缩，而黄金继续进行了牛。

While crypto speculators and memecoin flippers might be upset once the gravy train is over, truthfully, it’s a good thing. Those of us who have taken the time to study Bitcoin read the white paper, and understand how powerful it is may finally get a chance to make our point once the deafening music of sheer greed dies down.

一旦肉汁火车结束后，加密货币投机者和成员肢体可能会感到沮丧，但实际上，这是一件好事。那些花时间学习比特币的人阅读了白皮书，并且一旦震耳欲聋的贪婪的音乐消失了，它可能最终有机会提出我们的观点。

The truth is that Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer electronic cash system, not digital gold. Satoshi Nakamoto designed it with unbounded blocks intended for on-chain timestamped transactions at scale, believed in micropayments and nano transactions, and stated that Bitcoin doesn’t have a limit to how much throughput it can process.

事实是，比特币是对等电子现金系统，而不是数字黄金。 Nakamoto的Satoshi使用无限制的块设计，用于大规模的链上时间戳交易，相信微付款和纳米交易，并指出比特币对其可以处理多少吞吐量没有限制。

Satoshi’s original vision was hijacked by gold bugs and people with a political axe to grind. Today, BTC is sold as a store of value and has made its way to the heart of the financial system as part of people’s retirement accounts and investments. Should it truly crash and burn, all hell will break loose as BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and Fidelity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) worth tens of billions evaporate and companies like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) crash and burn.

Satoshi的最初愿景被黄金虫子和政治斧头的人劫持。如今，BTC被作为价值存储出售，并已成为人们退休帐户和投资的一部分进入金融体系的核心。如果它真正崩溃并燃烧，那么随着贝莱德（NYSE：BLK）和富达交易所交易贸易资金（ETFS）的蒸发量和诸如MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR）等公司的崩溃和燃烧等公司。

Will any of this happen? You never know. The thing with Black Swan events is that nobody can see them coming. Given how the world economy is a debt-ridden house of cards, it would only take a small thing, say 25% trade tariffs and a U.S. president hostile to the existing global order, to bring it all down.

这会发生吗？你永远不会知道。黑天鹅事件发生的事情是，没人能看到它们来了。鉴于世界经济是一家债务债务的纸牌屋，它只会占用一小件事，例如25％的贸易关税和美国总统对现有的全球秩序的敌意，以降低一切。

We’ll have to wait and see what happens in the coming months and years, but for now, markets are spooked, and they have resoundingly rejected BTC and embraced gold as the store of value of choice. It’s time to kill the BTC = SOV narrative and return to the original purpose of Bitcoin: small, casual payments at scale!

我们必须拭目以待，看看未来几个月和几年中会发生什么，但就目前而言，市场被吓到了，他们已经拒绝了BTC并接受黄金作为选择的价值存储。是时候杀死BTC = SoV叙述并返回比特币的原始目的：大规模的小型付款！

Watch: History of Bitcoin with Kurt Wuckert Jr.

观看：与Kurt Wuckert Jr.比特币的历史。