比特幣（BTC）和即將到來的估算：為什麼BTC注定了經濟學

股票交易員，加密兄弟和資產拖鞋目前正在遭受最大的痛苦。

Stock traders, crypto bros, and asset flippers are currently experiencing maximum pain.

股票交易員，加密兄弟和資產拖鞋目前正在遭受最大的痛苦。

In two days out of the past two weeks, U.S. equities have erased more than $1 trillion in value, and digital currency markets are down heavily.

在過去的兩周中，美國股票的價值超過1萬億美元，數字貨幣市場的下降幅度很大。

It’s a hot mess, and while stocks are not quite in a bear market (yet), most digital currencies, including BTC, are well into one.

這是一團糟，儘管庫存還不夠在熊市中（尚未），但包括BTC在內的大多數數字貨幣都歸功於一項。

With BTC hovering just over $80K after peaking at $109K in January, the only way to avoid calling it a bear market is to deny reality. According to Investopedia, a prolonged correction of 20% or more is the accepted definition of one.

一月份達到高峰的高峰為10.9萬美元之後，BTC徘徊在$ 8.0萬美元之後，避免將其稱為熊市的唯一方法就是否認現實。根據Investopedia的說法，公認的一個人的延長校正是一個或更多的校正。

That’s not to say that things can’t turn around, but with a global trade war underway and bond yields spiking across the globe, it’s not looking great for risk assets. Investors are piling into gold and cash, and until there’s a macro reason to do otherwise, that’s likely how things will remain.

這並不是說事情不能轉移，但是隨著全球貿易戰的進行，債券在全球範圍內產生飆升，這對於風險資產來說並不理想。投資者正在堆積黃金和現金，直到有宏觀理由去做否則，這可能是如何保留的。

Why not BTC, the so-called superior store of value?

為什麼不，即所謂的高級價值存儲BTC？

Except for the COVID crash, which was short-lived (two months) and followed by massive monetary stimulus, BTC has never been tested as a store of value in difficult market conditions.

除了短暫的（兩個月），其次是大規模貨幣刺激外，BTC從未被視為在困難的市場條件下的價值存儲。

At CoinGeek, we’ve already explained why BTC has doomed economics and have expressed many times that Bitcoin is not a store of value. However, it has been difficult to get people to listen, given how the endless printing of fiat currency and low interest rates have created easy times for speculators since the 2008 financial crisis.

在Coingeek，我們已經解釋了為什麼BTC注定要經濟學，並且多次表明比特幣不是價值的存儲。但是，鑑於自2008年金融危機以來，菲亞特貨幣和低利率的無盡印刷如何為投機者創造了輕鬆的時光，因此很難讓人們傾聽。

If U.S. President Donald Trump is serious about keeping tariffs in place and is willing to endure a recession to force change, this will be the first ‘proper’ one in 17 years. Many younger traders have never experienced a protracted recession and have no idea just how brutal they can be.

如果美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）認真考慮將關稅保持在適當的位置，並且願意忍受迫使迫使變革的經濟衰退，那麼這將是17年來的第一個“適當”。許多年輕的商人從未經歷過曠日持久的經濟衰退，也不知道他們會多麼殘酷。

While it’s too soon to say whether a recession, depression or even full-blown debt crisis will happen, we can already see that the market has chosen gold over BTC in times of fear and uncertainty. Why? Bitcoin was never supposed to be a store of value, doesn’t have the millennia of credibility gold has, and is associated with an industry full of scams, rip-offs, and lies.

雖然現在說衰退，抑鬱症甚至是成熟的債務危機還為時過早，但我們已經可以看到，在恐懼和不確定性時期，市場選擇了黃金而不是BTC。為什麼？比特幣從來都不應該是一種價值的存儲，沒有黃金信譽的數千年，並且與充滿騙局，搶劫和謊言的行業有關。

Bitcoin is peer-to-peer electronic cash

比特幣是點對點電子現金

Despite doing their damnedest to convince the world otherwise, BTC maximalists like Michael Saylor have failed to position BTC as a superior store of value to gold. While it’s still up since the 2024 halving, it has pulled back sharply amid the recent uncertainty, whereas gold has continued its bull run.

儘管採取了最卑鄙的人來說服世界，但像邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）這樣的BTC最大化主義者未能將BTC定位為黃金的優越儲備。雖然自2024年減半以來，它仍然在最近的不確定性中急劇退縮，而黃金繼續進行了牛。

While crypto speculators and memecoin flippers might be upset once the gravy train is over, truthfully, it’s a good thing. Those of us who have taken the time to study Bitcoin read the white paper, and understand how powerful it is may finally get a chance to make our point once the deafening music of sheer greed dies down.

一旦肉汁火車結束後，加密貨幣投機者和成員肢體可能會感到沮喪，但實際上，這是一件好事。那些花時間學習比特幣的人閱讀了白皮書，並且一旦震耳欲聾的貪婪的音樂消失了，它可能最終有機會提出我們的觀點。

The truth is that Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer electronic cash system, not digital gold. Satoshi Nakamoto designed it with unbounded blocks intended for on-chain timestamped transactions at scale, believed in micropayments and nano transactions, and stated that Bitcoin doesn’t have a limit to how much throughput it can process.

事實是，比特幣是對等電子現金系統，而不是數字黃金。 Nakamoto的Satoshi使用無限制的塊設計，用於大規模的鏈上時間戳交易，相信微付款和納米交易，並指出比特幣對其可以處理多少吞吐量沒有限制。

Satoshi’s original vision was hijacked by gold bugs and people with a political axe to grind. Today, BTC is sold as a store of value and has made its way to the heart of the financial system as part of people’s retirement accounts and investments. Should it truly crash and burn, all hell will break loose as BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and Fidelity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) worth tens of billions evaporate and companies like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) crash and burn.

Satoshi的最初願景被黃金蟲子和政治斧頭的人劫持。如今，BTC被作為價值存儲出售，並已成為人們退休帳戶和投資的一部分進入金融體系的核心。如果它真正崩潰並燃燒，那麼隨著貝萊德（NYSE：BLK）和富達交易所交易貿易資金（ETFS）的蒸發量和諸如MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR）等公司的崩潰和燃燒等公司。

Will any of this happen? You never know. The thing with Black Swan events is that nobody can see them coming. Given how the world economy is a debt-ridden house of cards, it would only take a small thing, say 25% trade tariffs and a U.S. president hostile to the existing global order, to bring it all down.

這會發生嗎？你永遠不會知道。黑天鵝事件發生的事情是，沒人能看到它們來了。鑑於世界經濟是一家債務債務的紙牌屋，它只會佔用一小件事，例如25％的貿易關稅和美國總統對現有的全球秩序的敵意，以降低一切。

We’ll have to wait and see what happens in the coming months and years, but for now, markets are spooked, and they have resoundingly rejected BTC and embraced gold as the store of value of choice. It’s time to kill the BTC = SOV narrative and return to the original purpose of Bitcoin: small, casual payments at scale!

我們必須拭目以待，看看未來幾個月和幾年中會發生什麼，但就目前而言，市場被嚇到了，他們已經拒絕了BTC並接受黃金作為選擇的價值存儲。是時候殺死BTC = SoV敘述並返回比特幣的原始目的：大規模的小型付款！

Watch: History of Bitcoin with Kurt Wuckert Jr.

觀看：與Kurt Wuckert Jr.比特幣的歷史。