比特币（BTC）公牛得分指数随着价格下跌而闪烁的深度结构转移

短期价格下跌是比特币（BTC）牛市课程的标准，但一个指标表明，目前从最近的高点下降可能会反映出市场动态的结构性变化。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has dropped 23% from recent highs, and a new analysis from on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant suggests the recent decline may be reflecting a deeper structural shift in market dynamics.

比特币（BTC）的价格从最近的高点下降了23％，链分析公司的新分析表明，最近下降可能反映出市场动态的结构性变化更深。

As of European morning hours on Friday, bitcoin was trading around $84,000. The fall from January's peak of $109,000 has rattled investors and fueled debate over whether this marks the start of a new bear market or a fleeting correction within a broader bullish trend.

截至周五的欧洲早晨，比特币的交易约为84,000美元。一月份的峰值跌至109,000美元的跌幅引起了投资者的震撼，并激发了关于这是否标志着新熊市的开始还是在更广泛的看涨趋势中的短暂纠正。

Such pullbacks are not uncommon, with BTC having weathered similar declines in past bull cycles, often rebounding to new heights.

这样的回调并不少见，BTC在过去的牛周期中遭受了类似的下降，通常会反弹到新的高度。

However, CryptoQuant’s analysis shows that its Bull Score Index, a composite metric designed to gauge bitcoin’s market health, is now signaling deeper weakness.

但是，CryptoQuant的分析表明，其Bull得分指数是一种旨在评估比特币市场健康的复合度量指数，现在标志着更深的弱点。

The index, which combines ten critical indicators—spanning network activity (like transaction volume), investor profitability, market liquidity, among other factors—is scored on a scale of 0 to 100. Higher scores denote a robust, bullish environment, while lower readings (especially below 40) usually flag bearish conditions.

该指数结合了十个关键指标，即跨越网络活动（例如交易量），投资者的盈利能力，市场流动性以及其他因素，其得分为0至100。较高的分数表示强大的，看涨的环境，而较低的阅读量（尤其是40岁以下）通常会旗下看跌。

Currently, the Bull Score Index stands at a troubling 20, the lowest since January 2023, when bitcoin was trading around $16,000 post the collapse of then-behemoth crypto exchange FTX.

目前，公牛得分指数令人不安20，这是自2023年1月以来的最低点，当时比特币在当时的行为加密交易所FTX崩溃后交易约16,000美元。

Out of the ten metrics that feed into the index, eight are showing warning signs, with network activity being bearish since December 2024 and transaction volumes and liquidity drying up.

在进食指数的十个指标中，有8个显示了警告信号，自2024年12月以来，网络活动是看跌，交易量和流动性枯竭。

“Historically, bitcoin has only sustained major price rallies when the Bull Score is above 60, while prolonged readings below 40 have aligned with bear markets,” CryptoQuant analysts said in the Thursday report.

CryptoQuant分析师在周四的报告中说：“从历史上看，比特币只有在牛得分高于60的情况下才能持续重大集会，而长时间的阅读量与熊市保持一致。”

Investor profitability has also decreased as short-term holders are now reporting unrealized losses, and demand is slowing—U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, once aggressive buyers, have registered a net $180 million in outflows over the past 30 days, or among the highest rates of withdrawals since they started trading at the beginning of 2024.

投资者的盈利能力也降低了，因为短期持有人现在报告了未实现的损失，需求正在放缓 - 曾经有一旦积极进取的买家，在过去30天中，既有积极的买家的流亡率净额净额为1.8亿美元，或者自2024年初开始交易以来的撤离率最高。

In previous cycles, such low readings (below 40) over several weeks or months have preceded extended bear phases, like the 2022 slump that saw bitcoin lose more than 60% of its value from peak.

在以前的周期中，在数周或几个月之前，如此低的读数（低于40）已经扩展了熊阶段，例如2022年的低迷，看到比特币从峰值上损失了其价值的60％以上。

The coming weeks will be pivotal. Either the index rebounds, signaling renewed strength, or it continues to lower, testing the $80,000 support zone—one that analysts have been keeping an eye on.

接下来的几周将是关键。索引反弹，信号更新强度，或者继续降低，以测试80,000美元的支撑区，这是一位分析师一直在关注的一位。