比特幣（BTC）公牛得分指數隨著價格下跌而閃爍的深度結構變化

短期價格下跌是比特幣（BTC）牛市課程的標準，但一個指標表明，目前從最近的高點下降可能會反映出市場動態的結構性變化。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has dropped 23% from recent highs, and a new analysis from on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant suggests the recent decline may be reflecting a deeper structural shift in market dynamics.

比特幣（BTC）的價格從最近的高點下降了23％，鏈分析公司的新分析表明，最近下降可能反映出市場動態的結構性變化更深。

As of European morning hours on Friday, bitcoin was trading around $84,000. The fall from January's peak of $109,000 has rattled investors and fueled debate over whether this marks the start of a new bear market or a fleeting correction within a broader bullish trend.

截至週五的歐洲早晨，比特幣的交易約為84,000美元。一月份的峰值跌至109,000美元的跌幅引起了投資者的震撼，並激發了關於這是否標誌著新熊市的開始還是在更廣泛的看漲趨勢中的短暫糾正。

Such pullbacks are not uncommon, with BTC having weathered similar declines in past bull cycles, often rebounding to new heights.

這樣的回調並不少見，BTC在過去的牛週期中遭受了類似的下降，通常會反彈到新的高度。

However, CryptoQuant’s analysis shows that its Bull Score Index, a composite metric designed to gauge bitcoin’s market health, is now signaling deeper weakness.

但是，CryptoQuant的分析表明，其Bull得分指數是一種旨在衡量比特幣市場健康的複合度量指數，現在標誌著更深的弱點。

The index, which combines ten critical indicators—spanning network activity (like transaction volume), investor profitability, market liquidity, among other factors—is scored on a scale of 0 to 100. Higher scores denote a robust, bullish environment, while lower readings (especially below 40) usually flag bearish conditions.

該指數結合了十個關鍵指標，即跨越網絡活動（例如交易量），投資者的盈利能力，市場流動性以及其他因素，其得分為0至100。較高的分數表示強大的，看漲的環境，而較低的閱讀量（尤其是40歲以下）通常會旗下看跌。

Currently, the Bull Score Index stands at a troubling 20, the lowest since January 2023, when bitcoin was trading around $16,000 post the collapse of then-behemoth crypto exchange FTX.

目前，公牛得分指數令人不安20，這是自2023年1月以來的最低點，當時比特幣在當時的行為加密交易所FTX崩潰後交易約16,000美元。

Out of the ten metrics that feed into the index, eight are showing warning signs, with network activity being bearish since December 2024 and transaction volumes and liquidity drying up.

在進食指數的十個指標中，有8個顯示了警告信號，自2024年12月以來，網絡活動是看跌，交易量和流動性枯竭。

“Historically, bitcoin has only sustained major price rallies when the Bull Score is above 60, while prolonged readings below 40 have aligned with bear markets,” CryptoQuant analysts said in the Thursday report.

CryptoQuant分析師在周四的報告中說：“從歷史上看，比特幣只有在牛得分高於60的情況下才能持續重大集會，而長時間的閱讀量與熊市保持一致。”

Investor profitability has also decreased as short-term holders are now reporting unrealized losses, and demand is slowing—U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, once aggressive buyers, have registered a net $180 million in outflows over the past 30 days, or among the highest rates of withdrawals since they started trading at the beginning of 2024.

投資者的盈利能力也降低了，因為短期持有人現在報告了未實現的損失，需求正在放緩 - 曾經有一旦積極進取的買家，在過去30天中，既有積極的買家的流亡率淨額淨額為1.8億美元，或者自2024年初開始交易以來的撤離率最高。

In previous cycles, such low readings (below 40) over several weeks or months have preceded extended bear phases, like the 2022 slump that saw bitcoin lose more than 60% of its value from peak.

在以前的周期中，在數週或幾個月之前，如此低的讀數（低於40）已經擴展了熊階段，例如2022年的低迷，看到比特幣從峰值上損失了其價值的60％以上。

The coming weeks will be pivotal. Either the index rebounds, signaling renewed strength, or it continues to lower, testing the $80,000 support zone—one that analysts have been keeping an eye on.

接下來的幾週將是關鍵。索引反彈，信號更新強度，或者繼續降低，以測試80,000美元的支撐區，這是一位分析師一直在關注的一位。