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在令人驚訝的開發中,與比特幣(BTC)和歐元美元(EUR/USD)匯率相關的期權表明,儘管美國股票市場的經濟低迷,但匯率的實力對美元。
In a surprising development, options linked to bitcoin (BTC) and the euro-dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate are indicating strength against the U.S. dollar despite a downturn in the U.S. stock market. This trend suggests the “sell America” trade is gathering pace.
在令人驚訝的發展中,與比特幣(BTC)和歐元美元(EUR/USD)匯率相關的期權表明,儘管美國股票市場下跌,但兌美元匯率的實力。這種趨勢表明,“賣美國”貿易正在採取步伐。
Currently, bitcoin’s short- and near-dated risk reversals — which measure the demand for call options relative to put options — were slightly positive, indicating a bullish bias. The data, drawn from sources like Deribit and Amberdata, signals a recovery from the previous trend where there was a consistent preference for puts in near-dated options.
目前,比特幣的短期和近日期的風險逆轉(衡量了相對於PUT期權的呼叫期權的需求)略有陽性,表明是看漲的偏見。來自諸如Deribit和Amberdata之類的來源繪製的數據標誌著從以前的趨勢中恢復了,因為在近日期內對推桿有一致的偏好。
In parallel, the one-month EUR/USD risk reversal has also flipped to positive, demonstrating a favorable outlook for EUR call options, according to data tracked by Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of Exante Data Inc.
Exante Data Data Inc.的創始人兼首席執行官Jens Nordvig表示,同時,一個月的歐/美元風險逆轉也已變為正面,表明了對歐洲呼叫期權的有利前景。
A call option gives the buyer asymmetric upside exposure to the underlying asset, while a put option provides protection against price declines. As such, a call buyer is implicitly bullish, whereas a put buyer is bearish, seeking to hedge or profit from anticipated price drops.
呼叫選項使買方不對稱的上行資產不對稱上行的接觸,而看位期權則可以保護價格下降。因此,呼叫購買者隱含地看漲,而看跌的買家則是看跌,尋求對沖或從預期的價格下跌中獲利。
The preference for BTC and EUR call options over the dollar indicates expectations for continued capital rotation away from U.S. assets, which have recently fallen out of favor with investors, and into bitcoin, the euro, and other assets such as gold.
BTC和EUR呼叫期權的偏愛超過美元,這表明人們對持續資本輪換的期望是最近對投資者的青睞,而這些資產卻不受投資者的青睞,以及比特幣,歐元和其他資產(例如黃金)的期望。
On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 700 points, bringing its month-to-date decline to over 9%. In tandem, the dollar index — reflecting the greenback’s performance against major fiat currencies, including the euro — slid to a three-year low of 98, down 10% over the past three months. Additionally, prices for longer-duration Treasury notes have dropped, resulting in the 30-year yield rising by over five basis points to 4.90%.
週一,道瓊斯工業平均水平下降了700多分,使月至日期下降到9%以上。同時,美元指數 - 反映了包括歐元在內的主要法定貨幣的綠色表現,在過去三個月中滑到了98的三年低點,下降了10%。此外,較長的財政部票據的價格下跌,導致30年的收益率上升了5個以上,至4.90%。
The concurrent sell-off in U.S. assets coincides with escalating policy uncertainty arising from President Donald Trump’s trade war and his reported intentions to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell, along with calls for a re-evaluation of trading strategies.
美國資產的同時拋售與唐納德·特朗普總統的貿易戰爭引起的政策不確定性不確定性同時,他的報導旨在駁回美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell),並呼籲重新評估貿易策略。
“We are in a STRATEGIC asset allocation shift that is causing all kind of correlations to flip in a historical way. It is a time for many investors to take a step back, and think fresh,” Nordvig said on X.
諾德維格在X上說:“我們正處於戰略資產分配的轉變中,導致各種相關性以歷史的方式翻轉。現在是許多投資者退後一步並思考新鮮的時候了。”
On Monday, BTC climbed past $88,000, with the EUR/USD rising to 1.1575, the highest since November 2021. Gold topped the $3,400 per ounce price mark for the first time and rose to a new lifetime high of $3,495 at press time.
週一,BTC攀升了88,000美元,歐元/美元上升至1.1575,這是2021年11月以來最高的。黃金首次超過了每盎司3,400美元的每盎司3,400美元,並在新聞發布會上升至3,495美元的新壽命。
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