隐式首席执行官Ki Young Ju声称，比特币（BTC）牛市还没有结束

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju表示，比特币（BTC）牛市还没有结束。他引用了持续的机构流入，比特币ETF控股

Bitcoin (BTC) price action has shown remarkable strength in recent weeks, prompting speculation among some analysts that the cryptocurrency’s bull cycle may be nearing a peak. However, on-chain data and analysis suggest otherwise, indicating that BTC has the potential to continue rallying significantly higher.

比特币（BTC）的价格动作在最近几周显示出了出色的强度，这引起了一些分析师之间的猜测，即加密货币的牛周期可能接近峰值。但是，链链数据和分析表明，表明BTC有可能继续升高更高。

One of the key arguments used to support the claim that Bitcoin is nearing a top is the concept of a “bear market rally.” This theory suggests that during the final stages of a bull cycle, there is a period of strong upward price movement followed by a sharp downturn. However, on-chain data does not fully align with this narrative.

用于支持比特币接近最高的说法的主要论点之一是“熊市集会”的概念。该理论表明，在公牛周期的最后阶段，有一个强劲的上价转移，然后是急剧下滑。但是，链数据并不能完全与此叙述完全一致。

According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin’s Realized Cap growth and drawdown patterns suggest that the current cycle began in December 2023. Notably, the price drawdowns in this cycle have ranged between 10.1% and 23.6%, which is significantly less than the drawdowns observed before the euphoric phases in past cycles.

根据链分析公司的玻璃节点的数据，比特币实现的上限增长和下降模式表明，当前周期始于2023年12月。值得注意的是，该周期中的价格下降范围为10.1％至23.6％，这显着少于缩水量。在过去的周期中观察到欣快的阶段。

This observation is further supported by the analysis of long-term holder (LTH) distribution patterns. On-chain data shows that LTHs have begun distributing BTC to newer investors on a large scale. This trend typically emerges during periods of strong demand and buying pressure from new market participants.

长期持有人（LTH）分布模式的分析进一步支持了这一观察结果。链上的数据表明，LTHS已开始大规模地将BTC分发给新的投资者。这种趋势通常是在需求强劲和新市场参与者购买压力的期间出现的。

Since December 2023, approximately 1.2 million BTC have moved from LTHs to short-term holders (STHs), a rate of distribution that mirrors the trends observed in 2017 and 2021, which preceded significant price peaks.

自2023年12月以来，约有120万BTC从LTHS转移到了短期持有人（STH），这种分配速率反映了2017年和2021年观察到的趋势，在价格峰值之前。

Moreover, key on-chain indicators, such as unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), have not yet reached the levels seen in past cycle tops. A surge in younger UTXOs, defined as Bitcoin held for less than three months, has historically signaled overheated market conditions during the peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

此外，关键的链链指标，例如未实用的交易输出（UTXO），尚未达到过去循环顶部中看到的水平。年轻的UTXO的激增，被定义为比特币持有的时间不到三个月，历史上标志着2013年，2017年和2021年高峰期间的市场状况过多。

While there has been an increase in younger UTXOs in 2025, they are still below the 70% threshold that was present during the major market tops in previous cycles. This divergence suggests that there is still room for Bitcoin to rally further before reaching a peak.

虽然2025年的年轻UTXO有所增加，但它们仍低于以前的周期主要市场上最高的70％阈值。这种差异表明，在达到山峰之前，仍然还有比特币进一步集会的空间。

Overall, the on-chain data and analysis indicate that the Bitcoin bull cycle remains intact, and the recent price appreciation is likely to continue. Key indicators suggest that BTC has yet to reach the overbought conditions seen in past cycle tops. If buying pressure remains strong, we could see BTC breaking above $110,000, potentially opening the way for a rally toward new all-time highs.

总体而言，链链数据和分析表明，比特币牛周期保持完整，最近的价格升值可能会持续下去。关键指标表明，BTC尚未达到过去周期顶部中看到的过高的条件。如果购买压力仍然很大，我们可能会看到BTC的破损超过$ 110,000，这有可能为朝着新的历史高潮倾斜开辟道路。