The Bitcoin (BTC) bull market is not over yet, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. He cited continued institutional inflows, Bitcoin ETF holdings
Bitcoin (BTC) price action has shown remarkable strength in recent weeks, prompting speculation among some analysts that the cryptocurrency’s bull cycle may be nearing a peak. However, on-chain data and analysis suggest otherwise, indicating that BTC has the potential to continue rallying significantly higher.
One of the key arguments used to support the claim that Bitcoin is nearing a top is the concept of a “bear market rally.” This theory suggests that during the final stages of a bull cycle, there is a period of strong upward price movement followed by a sharp downturn. However, on-chain data does not fully align with this narrative.
According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin’s Realized Cap growth and drawdown patterns suggest that the current cycle began in December 2023. Notably, the price drawdowns in this cycle have ranged between 10.1% and 23.6%, which is significantly less than the drawdowns observed before the euphoric phases in past cycles.
This observation is further supported by the analysis of long-term holder (LTH) distribution patterns. On-chain data shows that LTHs have begun distributing BTC to newer investors on a large scale. This trend typically emerges during periods of strong demand and buying pressure from new market participants.
Since December 2023, approximately 1.2 million BTC have moved from LTHs to short-term holders (STHs), a rate of distribution that mirrors the trends observed in 2017 and 2021, which preceded significant price peaks.
Moreover, key on-chain indicators, such as unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), have not yet reached the levels seen in past cycle tops. A surge in younger UTXOs, defined as Bitcoin held for less than three months, has historically signaled overheated market conditions during the peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
While there has been an increase in younger UTXOs in 2025, they are still below the 70% threshold that was present during the major market tops in previous cycles. This divergence suggests that there is still room for Bitcoin to rally further before reaching a peak.
Overall, the on-chain data and analysis indicate that the Bitcoin bull cycle remains intact, and the recent price appreciation is likely to continue. Key indicators suggest that BTC has yet to reach the overbought conditions seen in past cycle tops. If buying pressure remains strong, we could see BTC breaking above $110,000, potentially opening the way for a rally toward new all-time highs.
