比特币 (BTC) 分析师本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 在旗舰数字资产徘徊于 10 万美元以下时发出警告

加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 对比特币 (BTC) 发出警告，因为这一旗舰数字资产的价格徘徊在 10 万美元以下。

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen is keeping a close eye on the yield of the US Treasury 10-year. According to Cowen, a continued rise in the 10-year yield will put bearish pressure on Bitcoin (BTC).

加密货币分析师 Benjamin Cowen 密切关注美国 10 年期国债收益率。 Cowen表示，10年期国债收益率的持续上涨将对比特币（BTC）构成看跌压力。

In a new video, Cowen tells his 858,000 YouTube subscribers that a sustained 10-year yield rally will put Bitcoin in a precarious position, especially after factoring in the crypto king's performance in the second half of 2023.

在一段新视频中，Cowen 告诉他的 858,000 名 YouTube 订阅者，持续 10 年的收益率上涨将使比特币处于不稳定的境地，特别是在考虑到这位加密之王在 2023 年下半年的表现之后。

At the time, Bitcoin plunged below a crucial range low at around $30,000 and remained largely subdued for several weeks.

当时，比特币跌破 30,000 美元左右的关键区间低点，并在几周内基本保持低迷状态。

“10-year yield if it keeps going up it’s going to be a headwind for Bitcoin…

“如果10年期收益率持续上涨，这将成为比特币的逆风......

…what happened [in 2023] was Bitcoin went all the way up, it came back down but eventually it really dropped below $30,000 and stayed below $30,000 for a number of weeks. And because of that the market got weaker and weaker and weaker until it sold off and found demand down here [below $25,000].”

……[2023 年]发生的事情是，比特币一路上涨，然后又回落，但最终它真的跌破了 30,000 美元，并在数周内保持在 30,000 美元以下。因此，市场变得越来越弱，直到抛售并发现需求下降[低于 25,000 美元]。”

If Bitcoin follows a similar path as 2023, Cowen anticipates a potential drop of up to 28% from the current price level.

Cowen 预计，如果比特币遵循与 2023 年类似的路径，目前的价格水平可能会下跌 28%。

“So if Bitcoin has to follow that [2023] blueprint, which is not even at the same time of the year when you would normally see something like that, but if it does because the 10-year yield just does not relent, then you would likely see Bitcoin spend some time around $88,000, $89,000 for a while before going back and testing maybe $70,000 right and then trying to find support there.”

“因此，如果比特币必须遵循[2023]蓝图，而这甚至不是您通常会看到类似情况的一年中的同一时间，但如果确实如此，因为10年期收益率并没有减弱，那么您比特币可能会在 88,000 美元左右花费一段时间，一段时间是 89,000 美元，然后再回过头来测试 70,000 美元，然后试图在那里找到支撑。”

The renowned analyst also highlights the significance of Bitcoin's price action around the $100,000 level in determining the flagship crypto asset's short-term trajectory.

这位著名分析师还强调了比特币在 10 万美元水平附近的价格走势对于确定这一旗舰加密资产的短期轨迹的重要性。

“I think $100,000 is going to be kind of the line in the sand… [if] Bitcoin gets rejected again [at $100,000) and it comes back down here and gets below $90,000 then this [2023] outcome is more likely where it just follows what the S&P [500 index] did and the Russell [2,000 index] did and gives back those post-election gains in the short term.”

“我认为 100,000 美元将是一种底线……[如果]比特币再次被拒绝（以 100,000 美元的价格），并且它又回到这里并低于 90,000 美元，那么这种 [2023] 结果更有可能发生在它之后标普 [500 指数] 和罗素 [2,000 指数] 的表现如何，并在短期内回馈了选举后的收益。”

Bitcoin is trading at $96,900 at time of writing.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 96,900 美元。