比特幣 (BTC) 分析師本傑明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 在旗艦數位資產徘徊於 10 萬美元以下時發出警告

加密貨幣分析師本傑明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 對比特幣 (BTC) 發出警告，因為這一旗艦數位資產的價格徘徊在 10 萬美元以下。

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen is keeping a close eye on the yield of the US Treasury 10-year. According to Cowen, a continued rise in the 10-year yield will put bearish pressure on Bitcoin (BTC).

加密貨幣分析師 Benjamin Cowen 密切關注美國 10 年期公債殖利率。 Cowen表示，10年期公債殖利率的持續上漲將對比特幣（BTC）構成看跌壓力。

In a new video, Cowen tells his 858,000 YouTube subscribers that a sustained 10-year yield rally will put Bitcoin in a precarious position, especially after factoring in the crypto king's performance in the second half of 2023.

在一段新影片中，Cowen 告訴他的858,000 名YouTube 訂閱者，持續10 年的收益率上漲將使比特幣處於不穩定的境地，特別是在考慮到這位加密之王在2023 年下半年的表現之後。

At the time, Bitcoin plunged below a crucial range low at around $30,000 and remained largely subdued for several weeks.

當時，比特幣跌破 3 萬美元左右的關鍵區間低點，並在幾週內基本上保持低迷狀態。

“10-year yield if it keeps going up it’s going to be a headwind for Bitcoin…

「如果10年期殖利率持續上漲，這將成為比特幣的阻力...

…what happened [in 2023] was Bitcoin went all the way up, it came back down but eventually it really dropped below $30,000 and stayed below $30,000 for a number of weeks. And because of that the market got weaker and weaker and weaker until it sold off and found demand down here [below $25,000].”

……[2023 年]發生的事情是，比特幣一路上漲，然後又回落，但最終它真的跌破了 30,000 美元，並在幾週內保持在 30,000 美元以下。因此，市場變得越來越弱，直到拋售並發現需求下降[低於 25,000 美元]。

If Bitcoin follows a similar path as 2023, Cowen anticipates a potential drop of up to 28% from the current price level.

Cowen 預計，如果比特幣遵循與 2023 年類似的路徑，目前的價格水準可能會下跌 28%。

“So if Bitcoin has to follow that [2023] blueprint, which is not even at the same time of the year when you would normally see something like that, but if it does because the 10-year yield just does not relent, then you would likely see Bitcoin spend some time around $88,000, $89,000 for a while before going back and testing maybe $70,000 right and then trying to find support there.”

「因此，如果比特幣必須遵循[2023]藍圖，而這甚至不是您通常會看到類似情況的一年中的同一時間，但如果確實如此，因為10年期收益率並沒有減弱，那麼您比特幣可能會在88,000 美元左右花費一段時間，一段時間是89,000 美元，然後再回過頭來測試70,000 美元，然後試圖在那裡找到支撐。

The renowned analyst also highlights the significance of Bitcoin's price action around the $100,000 level in determining the flagship crypto asset's short-term trajectory.

這位著名分析師還強調了比特幣在 10 萬美元左右的價格走勢對於確定這一旗艦加密資產的短期軌蹟的重要性。

“I think $100,000 is going to be kind of the line in the sand… [if] Bitcoin gets rejected again [at $100,000) and it comes back down here and gets below $90,000 then this [2023] outcome is more likely where it just follows what the S&P [500 index] did and the Russell [2,000 index] did and gives back those post-election gains in the short term.”

「我認為100,000 美元將是一種底線……[如果]比特幣再次被拒絕（以100,000 美元的價格），並且它又回到這裡並低於90,000 美元，那麼這種[2023] 結果更有可能發生在它之後標普 [500 指數] 和羅素 [2,000 指數] 的表現如何，並在短期內回饋了選舉後的收益。

Bitcoin is trading at $96,900 at time of writing.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 96,900 美元。