比特币回升：交易员利用融资利率实现强劲反弹

随着比特币价格在期权到期前反弹，交易者通过建立多头头寸来利用负融资利率。这种飙升导致了地缘政治紧张局势和即将到来的比特币减半事件中的复苏。尽管存在抛售压力的预期，但多头头寸的浓厚兴趣和空头头寸的平仓显着推动了价格反弹。

Bitcoin's Stellar Resurgence: Traders Seize Negative Funding Rates for a Robust Recovery

比特币的强劲复苏：交易员抓住负融资利率实现强劲复苏

In a remarkable turn of events, Bitcoin (BTC), the world's leading cryptocurrency, underwent a momentary dip below $60,000 earlier today, only to rebound with vigor hours later. At press time, Bitcoin is trading 5% higher at approximately $65,000. This swift recovery has been fueled by a confluence of factors, including adept trading strategies and anticipation surrounding Bitcoin's upcoming halving event.

事态发生了引人注目的转变，全球领先的加密货币比特币 (BTC) 今天早些时候一度跌破 60,000 美元，但数小时后又强劲反弹。截至发稿时，比特币交易价格上涨 5%，至约 65,000 美元。这种迅速复苏是由多种因素推动的，包括熟练的交易策略和对即将到来的比特币减半事件的预期。

Options Expiry and Negative Funding Rates Create Opportunities

期权到期和负资金利率创造机会

Coinciding with the fourth Bitcoin halving event, today witnessed the expiration of over 21,845 BTC options, representing a notional value of $1.35 billion and a put-call ratio of $0.63. Market data from the Deribit exchange revealed a max pain point of $65,000, while many traders placed bets at a strike price of $60,000, indicating their belief in Bitcoin's continued selling pressure.

恰逢第四次比特币减半事件，今天有超过 21,845 个 BTC 期权到期，名义价值为 13.5 亿美元，看跌期权与看涨期权比率为 0.63 美元。 Deribit 交易所的市场数据显示，最大痛点为 65,000 美元，而许多交易者以 60,000 美元的执行价格下注，表明他们相信比特币将持续面临抛售压力。

However, a decline in implied volatility across all major durations, primarily driven by a sharp drop in call option prices, suggested a shift in sentiment. Additionally, the halving expectations have not provided significant support to BTC's upward trajectory.

然而，主要由看涨期权价格大幅下跌推动，所有主要期限的隐含波动率均出现下降，表明市场情绪发生了转变。此外，减半预期并没有为比特币的上涨轨迹提供重大支撑。

Despite these factors, as Bitcoin's price rebounded prior to options expiry, traders astutely capitalized on negative funding rates to initiate long positions, propelling the cryptocurrency's recovery. On-chain analyst IT Tech highlighted numerous instances of "short squeezes" occurring as Bitcoin surged over 4% to reach $65,000.

尽管存在这些因素，随着比特币价格在期权到期前反弹，交易员精明地利用负资金利率建立多头头寸，推动加密货币的复苏。链上分析师 IT Tech 强调了当比特币飙升超过 4% 达到 65,000 美元时发生的许多“空头挤压”实例。

Renowned analyst Skew observed a trend of liquidations among short positions and growing interest in long positions. Skew attributed the rebound to aggregate CVDs (cumulative value deltas) and Delta Spot, with significant volumes in perpetual contracts resulting from the unwinding of short positions.

著名分析师 Skew 观察到空头头寸的清算趋势以及多头头寸的兴趣不断增长。 Skew 将反弹归因于总 CVD（累积价值 Delta）和 Delta Spot，由于空头头寸平仓，永续合约交易量显着增加。

Halving Event and Price Expectations

减半事件和价格预期

The upcoming Bitcoin halving event, expected in 2024, will result in a significant supply shock, reducing the daily BTC production by 50%, from 900 to 450 coins. While the halving implementation is a major milestone, it may not immediately lead to a price rally. Bitcoin miners might liquidate their holdings to offset the loss of revenue from the halving, maintaining some selling pressure on Bitcoin.

预计 2024 年即将到来的比特币减半事件将导致严重的供应冲击，使 BTC 日产量减少 50%，从 900 个代币减少到 450 个代币。虽然减半的实施是一个重要的里程碑，但它可能不会立即导致价格上涨。比特币矿商可能会清算其持有的资产，以抵消减半带来的收入损失，从而维持比特币的一定抛售压力。

Historical trends suggest that Bitcoin tends to reach its peak in its Bull Market 518-546 days after the halving. If this pattern holds true, the next Bitcoin all-time high could potentially occur sometime between September and October 2025.

历史趋势表明，比特币往往会在减半后 518-546 天的牛市中达到顶峰。如果这种模式成立，那么比特币的下一个历史新高可能会出现在 2025 年 9 月至 10 月之间的某个时间。

Despite reaching its all-time high in March, Bitcoin is currently experiencing a pre-halving retracement. However, historical data indicates that Bitcoin's price is likely to gain in the 12 months following the halving event.

尽管比特币在三月份创下历史新高，但目前正在经历减半前的回调。然而，历史数据表明，比特币的价格可能会在减半事件后的 12 个月内上涨。

In conclusion, Bitcoin's recent recovery has demonstrated the resilience and adaptability of the cryptocurrency market. Traders have skillfully utilized negative funding rates to initiate long positions, while the upcoming halving event continues to generate anticipation and speculation. While Bitcoin's price may fluctuate in the short term, historical trends and fundamental factors suggest a promising long-term outlook for the world's leading digital asset.

综上所述，比特币近期的复苏证明了加密货币市场的弹性和适应性。交易员巧妙地利用负资金利率建立多头头寸，而即将到来的减半事件继续引发预期和猜测。虽然比特币的价格可能会在短期内波动，但历史趋势和基本面因素表明，世界领先的数字资产的长期前景充满希望。