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自由主义者总统哈维尔·米莱的财政休克疗法将崩溃的货币变成了该地区最强劲的货币之一。但不要让头条新闻欺骗了你。这种经济大转变可能会对阿根廷深受喜爱的比特币造成比任何人预期更严重的打击。
Argentina's peso has seen a remarkable surge in value against its trading partners' currencies this year, rising by over 40%. This surge is largely attributed to libertarian President Javier Milei's fiscal shock therapy, which has managed to stabilize the peso despite the country's economic woes.
今年,阿根廷比索兑贸易伙伴货币大幅升值,涨幅超过 40%。这一飙升很大程度上归因于自由主义总统哈维尔·米莱的财政休克疗法,尽管该国经济陷入困境,但该疗法仍成功稳定了比索。
However, this peso rally is now dealing a blow to one of Argentina's beloved assets - Bitcoin. With the peso becoming stronger, Argentina is losing its appeal as a budget-friendly tourist destination.
然而,比索的上涨现在正在对阿根廷深受喜爱的资产之一——比特币造成打击。随着比索走强,阿根廷正在失去作为经济型旅游目的地的吸引力。
After attracting bargain-hungry tourists with cheap wine and steaks, the tables have turned. Tourists are now steering clear of Argentina's inflated prices. Tourism, once a golden ticket for Argentina's economy, is now taking the first hit.
在用廉价的葡萄酒和牛排吸引了渴望讨价还价的游客后,情况发生了转变。游客现在正在避开阿根廷高昂的物价。旅游业曾经是阿根廷经济的金票,现在却首当其冲。
Locals, meanwhile, are swapping their vacation dreams for shopping sprees abroad. Bitcoin, which had been a lifeline for Argentinians battling a crumbling peso, is also caught in the crossfire of this new economic reality.
与此同时,当地人正在放弃度假梦想,转而去国外疯狂购物。比特币曾是阿根廷人与崩溃的比索作斗争的生命线,但它也陷入了这种新经济现实的交火中。
A peso on steroids flips the script
类固醇的比索翻转了脚本
Milei's policies have made the peso a giant contender in the global currency ring. By clamping down on monetary emission and keeping the official exchange rate steady, he's fueled an economic transformation.
米莱的政策使比索成为全球货币圈中的巨大竞争者。通过限制货币排放和保持官方汇率稳定,他推动了经济转型。
On the black market, where the peso had long been battered, Milei's stabilization plans have done the impossible — strengthened it. Demand for the greenback has plummeted as Argentinians begin trusting their currency again.
在比索长期遭受重创的黑市上,米雷的稳定计划完成了不可能的任务——强化了比索。随着阿根廷人再次开始信任其货币,对美元的需求大幅下降。
Inflation has slowed slightly, dropping to 24% in November, but not enough to ease the overall pain. The strong peso is expensive for everyone, especially tourists. The number of visitors spending at least one night in Argentina has nosedived by 20.2% compared to the same period in 2023.
通货膨胀略有放缓,11 月份降至 24%,但不足以缓解整体痛苦。坚挺的比索对每个人来说都很昂贵,尤其是游客。与 2023 年同期相比,在阿根廷至少住一晚的游客数量骤降 20.2%。
Uruguayans, Bolivians, and Chileans led the exodus, with arrivals falling by 50.9%, 33.4%, and 28.3%, respectively. Even Argentinians are running for the border, with outbound travel jumping by 37.7% in the same period.
乌拉圭人、玻利维亚人和智利人的出境人数最多,入境人数分别下降了 50.9%、33.4% 和 28.3%。就连阿根廷人也在奔向边境,同期出境游猛增 37.7%。
Meanwhile, Americans and Canadians showed more resilience, with a smaller drop of 11.5%. And here's a twist—Europeans are bucking the trend. The number of European tourists actually increased by 3.5%, proving there's always someone willing to pay for overpriced empanadas.
与此同时,美国人和加拿大人表现出更强的韧性,降幅较小,为 11.5%。但这里有一个转折点——欧洲人正在逆潮流而行。欧洲游客数量实际上增加了 3.5%,证明总有人愿意为价格过高的肉馅卷饼买单。
Bitcoin's balancing act
比特币的平衡行为
Now, let's talk Bitcoin. Argentina's relationship with crypto is as volatile as its economic history. Over the past year, Bitcoin's price in pesos has surged by 566.69%, despite recent market fluctuations. As of press time, one Bitcoin trades for 95.7 million ARS.
现在,我们来谈谈比特币。阿根廷与加密货币的关系与其经济历史一样不稳定。过去一年,尽管近期市场波动,比特币的比索价格仍飙升了 566.69%。截至发稿时,1 个比特币可交易 9570 万阿根廷比索。
In the years of hyperinflation and peso freefall, Bitcoin became a safe haven. Argentinians turned to it to escape the chaos, with many opting for stablecoins to hedge against local economic disasters. By mid-2024, Argentina accounted for 61.8% of Latin America's stablecoin transaction volume.
在恶性通货膨胀和比索自由落体的年代,比特币成为避风港。阿根廷人转向它来逃避混乱,许多人选择稳定币来对冲当地的经济灾难。到2024年中期,阿根廷占拉丁美洲稳定币交易量的61.8%。
But now, the peso's resurgence is reducing the need for alternatives like Bitcoin. Fewer people are looking to ditch their pesos for crypto, even as Bitcoin continues to grow in value.
但现在,比索的复苏正在减少对比特币等替代品的需求。尽管比特币的价值持续增长,但希望放弃比索转而购买加密货币的人却越来越少。
This doesn't mean Bitcoin is irrelevant. Far from it. For many Argentinians, it remains a hedge against uncertainty. The scars of decades of economic instability don't heal overnight.
这并不意味着比特币无关紧要。远非如此。对于许多阿根廷人来说,它仍然是抵御不确定性的一道屏障。数十年经济不稳定的伤痕不会在一夜之间痊愈。
Even as the peso stabilizes, trust in traditional systems is still shaky. Analysts predict Bitcoin could stabilize at around 105.3 million ARS by Q1 2025, but that depends on both local economic policies and global crypto trends.
即使比索稳定,对传统系统的信任仍然不稳定。分析师预测,到 2025 年第一季度,比特币可能稳定在 1.053 亿阿根廷比索左右,但这取决于当地经济政策和全球加密货币趋势。
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