分析迈克尔·塞勒的大型比特币驱动策略及其批评

此举使其立即成为许多季度最受欢迎和最讨厌的比特币投资工具。该战略暂时带来了红利，但长期可持续性以及对股东和更大市场的影响仍然是一个有待解答的问题。

Michael Saylor, co-founder and chairman of cryptocurrency software company MicroStrategy, has disclosed an ambitious plan to put to work the company’s substantial holdings in Bitcoin, currently at close to 440,000 BTC. As of 2024, these holdings nearly all, or about $37.6 billion, of the value represented by the firm’s market capitalization.

加密货币软件公司 MicroStrategy 的联合创始人兼董事长 Michael Saylor 披露了一项雄心勃勃的计划，该计划将利用该公司持有的大量比特币（目前接近 440,000 BTC）。截至 2024 年，这些持股几乎占公司市值所代表的全部价值，即约 376 亿美元。

The Bitcoin-driven approach in force has catapulted it to new highs, with its market capitalization nearing $100 billion—something quite out of the ordinary within the technology industry.

比特币驱动的方法已将其推升至新高，其市值接近 1000 亿美元——这在科技行业中是很不寻常的。

Saylor further clarified the strategy followed by the firm in optimizing its capital structure in an interview with Bloomberg Television and termed it “intelligent leverage.”

塞勒在接受彭博电视台采访时进一步阐明了公司优化资本结构的策略，并将其称为“智能杠杆”。

Saylor also confirmed that issuing convertible bonds at MicroStrategy has enabled the firm to finance several billion in Bitcoin purchases. He stated, “We have $7.2 billion in convertible bonds, with $4 billion effectively acting as equity through the strike price and call price.”

Saylor 还证实，MicroStrategy 发行可转换债券使该公司能够为数十亿美元的比特币购买提供资金。他表示，“我们拥有 72 亿美元的可转换债券，其中 40 亿美元通过执行价和赎回价有效充当股权。”

This strategy, he added, aims to build more leverage that benefits shareholders while also supporting the company’s Bitcoin-driven vision.

他补充说，这一战略旨在建立更多的杠杆作用，使股东受益，同时支持公司的比特币驱动愿景。

As part of its capital-raising efforts, MicroStrategy issued $6.2 billion in convertible bonds this year alone, attracting interest from hedge funds. These funds employ convertible arbitrage strategies, betting on the company’s volatility while helping to sustain its leverage.

作为融资活动的一部分，MicroStrategy 仅今年就发行了 62 亿美元的可转换债券，吸引了对冲基金的兴趣。这些基金采用可转换套利策略，押注公司的波动性，同时帮助维持其杠杆率。

Despite the criticism, MicroStrategy’s aggressive strategy has resulted in a remarkable surge in its stock price, which has soared by around 500% over the past year, far outpacing Bitcoin’s gains.

尽管受到批评，MicroStrategy 的激进策略还是导致其股价大幅飙升，在过去一年中飙升了约 500%，远远超过了比特币的涨幅。

However, some analysts have labeled the strategy unsustainable and likened it to a “Ponzi scheme.” One prominent critic is Jacob King, a contributor to the Whalewire newsletter, who argues that the company’s model is built on a dangerous feedback loop.

然而，一些分析师认为该策略不可持续，并将其比作“庞氏骗局”。一位著名的批评者是 Whalewire 时事通讯的撰稿人雅各布·金 (Jacob King)，他认为该公司的模式建立在危险的反馈循环之上。

According to King, the company issues debt or equity to purchase Bitcoin, driving up the cryptocurrency’s price, which in turn boosts MicroStrategy’s market capitalization. This, he argues, allows the company to raise more capital for further Bitcoin acquisitions.

King 表示，该公司发行债务或股权来购买比特币，从而推高了加密货币的价格，从而提高了 MicroStrategy 的市值。他认为，这使得该公司能够筹集更多资金来进一步收购比特币。

However, King warns that this cycle is entirely dependent on Bitcoin’s price continuing to rise. “When Bitcoin stagnates or crashes—watch the entire structure collapse,” King wrote on X. He likens the company’s dependence on Bitcoin’s value to an addict’s reliance on their supply, describing the strategy as “pure desperation.”

然而，金警告说，这个周期完全取决于比特币价格的持续上涨。 King 在 X 上写道：“当比特币停滞或崩溃时，就会看到整个结构崩溃。”他将公司对比特币价值的依赖比作瘾君子对其供应的依赖，并将该策略描述为“纯粹的绝望”。

This critique is compounded by Saylor’s history of conflicting statements. In 2013, he famously dismissed Bitcoin as “useless,” but in recent years, he has committed MicroStrategy’s future to the cryptocurrency, making it the centerpiece of the company’s strategy. King’s analysis points to this shift as evidence of a lack of long-term planning and foresight.

塞勒的矛盾言论历史加剧了这种批评。 2013 年，他曾多次斥责比特币“无用”，但近年来，他将 MicroStrategy 的未来寄托在加密货币上，使其成为公司战略的核心。金的分析指出，这种转变是缺乏长期规划和远见的证据。

The soaring price of Bitcoin has certainly worked in MicroStrategy’s favor, with the cryptocurrency’s value recently surging past $100,000, contributing to a 120% increase in its value this year alone. The sudden spike gave a big thrust to the firm’s portfolio and further supported its strategy, some investors said.

比特币价格的飙升无疑对 MicroStrategy 有利，该加密货币的价值最近飙升至 100,000 美元以上，仅今年一年就增长了 120%。一些投资者表示，突然的上涨给该公司的投资组合带来了巨大的推动力，并进一步支持了其战略。

MicroStrategy, for example, has acquired an additional 249,850 BTC from 2024 to date, taking its total holding to 439,000 BTC, way above that held by its nearest competitor, Marathon Digital.

例如，从 2024 年至今，MicroStrategy 已额外收购了 249,850 BTC，使其总持有量达到 439,000 BTC，远高于其最接近的竞争对手 Marathon Digital 的持有量。

But with Bitcoin’s continued rise comes a growing set of risks attached to the heavy reliance of MicroStrategy on its price. The stock has surged—to be sure, highly volatile, moving in concert with Bitcoin’s ups and downs.

但随着比特币的持续上涨，MicroStrategy 对其价格的严重依赖带来了越来越多的风险。该股已经飙升——当然，波动性很大，与比特币的涨跌一致。

The market value of MicroStrategy may be significantly impacted if Bitcoin’s value declines or remains unchanged. This is due to the fact that the business is very dependent on Bitcoin’s ongoing expansion.

如果比特币的价值下降或保持不变，MicroStrategy 的市值可能会受到重大影响。这是因为该业务非常依赖比特币的持续扩张。

MicroStrategy is certain that its Bitcoin approach will benefit shareholders in the long run, despite these risks. The company’s visibility and appeal may increase if it is included in the Nasdaq 100 Index, which could help draw institutional investors.

尽管存在这些风险，MicroStrategy 确信其比特币策略从长远来看将使股东受益。如果该公司被纳入纳斯达克 100 指数，其知名度和吸引力可能会增加，这可能有助于吸引机构投资者。

A Fragile Future?

脆弱的未来？

While MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy has undoubtedly made it one of the most closely watched companies in the cryptocurrency space, its future remains uncertain.

尽管 MicroStrategy 的比特币战略无疑使其成为加密货币领域最受关注的公司之一，但其未来仍然不确定。

For now, the company continues to reap the rewards of Bitcoin’s surge, but the question remains: how long can this strategy sustain itself?

目前，该公司继续获得比特币飙升的回报，但问题仍然存在：这种策略能够维持多久？

If Bitcoin’s price were to fall significantly, the company’s leverage and market cap could be at risk, leaving investors to face the consequences.

如果比特币的价格大幅下跌，该公司的杠杆率和市值可能会面临风险，让投资者面临后果。

As Saylor continues to advocate for Bitcoin’s integration into major tech companies—most notably Microsoft—his vision for the future of cryptocurrency remains steadfast.

随着塞勒继续倡导比特币融入大型科技公司（尤其是微软），他对加密货币未来的愿景仍然坚定。

However, as critics like Jacob King argue, the risks associated with MicroStrategy’s strategy cannot be ignored. Only time will tell whether this bold experiment will pay off or if it will

然而，正如 Jacob King 等批评家所说，与 MicroStrategy 战略相关的风险不容忽视。只有时间才能证明这个大胆的实验是否会取得成功