分析邁克爾·塞勒的大型比特幣驅動策略及其批評

此舉立即使其成為許多季度最受歡迎和最討厭的比特幣投資工具。該策略暫時帶來了紅利，但長期可持續性以及對股東和更大市場的影響仍然是一個有待解答的問題。

Michael Saylor, co-founder and chairman of cryptocurrency software company MicroStrategy, has disclosed an ambitious plan to put to work the company’s substantial holdings in Bitcoin, currently at close to 440,000 BTC. As of 2024, these holdings nearly all, or about $37.6 billion, of the value represented by the firm’s market capitalization.

加密貨幣軟體公司 MicroStrategy 的聯合創始人兼董事長 Michael Saylor 披露了一項雄心勃勃的計劃，該計劃將利用該公司持有的大量比特幣（目前接近 440,000 BTC）。截至 2024 年，這些持股幾乎占公司市值所代表的全部價值，約 376 億美元。

The Bitcoin-driven approach in force has catapulted it to new highs, with its market capitalization nearing $100 billion—something quite out of the ordinary within the technology industry.

比特幣驅動的方法已將其推升至新高，其市值接近 1000 億美元——這在科技行業中是很不尋常的。

Saylor further clarified the strategy followed by the firm in optimizing its capital structure in an interview with Bloomberg Television and termed it “intelligent leverage.”

塞勒在接受彭博電視台採訪時進一步闡明了公司優化資本結構的策略，並將其稱為「智慧槓桿」。

Saylor also confirmed that issuing convertible bonds at MicroStrategy has enabled the firm to finance several billion in Bitcoin purchases. He stated, “We have $7.2 billion in convertible bonds, with $4 billion effectively acting as equity through the strike price and call price.”

Saylor 也證實，MicroStrategy 發行可轉換債券使該公司能夠為數十億美元的比特幣購買提供資金。他表示，“我們擁有 72 億美元的可轉換債券，其中 40 億美元通過執行價和贖回價有效充當股權。”

This strategy, he added, aims to build more leverage that benefits shareholders while also supporting the company’s Bitcoin-driven vision.

他補充說，這項策略旨在建立更多的槓桿作用，使股東受益，同時支持公司的比特幣驅動願景。

As part of its capital-raising efforts, MicroStrategy issued $6.2 billion in convertible bonds this year alone, attracting interest from hedge funds. These funds employ convertible arbitrage strategies, betting on the company’s volatility while helping to sustain its leverage.

作為融資活動的一部分，MicroStrategy 僅今年就發行了 62 億美元的可轉換債券，吸引了對沖基金的興趣。這些基金採用可轉換套利策略，押注公司的波動性，同時幫助維持其槓桿率。

Despite the criticism, MicroStrategy’s aggressive strategy has resulted in a remarkable surge in its stock price, which has soared by around 500% over the past year, far outpacing Bitcoin’s gains.

儘管受到批評，MicroStrategy 的激進策略仍導致其股價大幅飆升，在過去一年中飆升了約 500%，遠遠超過了比特幣的漲幅。

However, some analysts have labeled the strategy unsustainable and likened it to a “Ponzi scheme.” One prominent critic is Jacob King, a contributor to the Whalewire newsletter, who argues that the company’s model is built on a dangerous feedback loop.

然而，一些分析師認為該策略不可持續，並將其比作「龐氏騙局」。一位著名的批評者是 Whalewire 時事通訊的撰稿人雅各布金 (Jacob King)，他認為該公司的模式建立在危險的反饋循環之上。

According to King, the company issues debt or equity to purchase Bitcoin, driving up the cryptocurrency’s price, which in turn boosts MicroStrategy’s market capitalization. This, he argues, allows the company to raise more capital for further Bitcoin acquisitions.

King 表示，該公司發行債務或股權來購買比特幣，推高了加密貨幣的價格，從而提高了 MicroStrategy 的市值。他認為，這使得該公司能夠籌集更多資金來進一步收購比特幣。

However, King warns that this cycle is entirely dependent on Bitcoin’s price continuing to rise. “When Bitcoin stagnates or crashes—watch the entire structure collapse,” King wrote on X. He likens the company’s dependence on Bitcoin’s value to an addict’s reliance on their supply, describing the strategy as “pure desperation.”

然而，金警告說，這個週期完全取決於比特幣價格的持續上漲。 King 在X 上寫道：「當比特幣停滯或崩潰時，就會看到整個結構崩潰。」他將公司對比特幣價值的依賴比作癮君子對其供應的依賴，並將該策略描述為「純粹的絕望」。

This critique is compounded by Saylor’s history of conflicting statements. In 2013, he famously dismissed Bitcoin as “useless,” but in recent years, he has committed MicroStrategy’s future to the cryptocurrency, making it the centerpiece of the company’s strategy. King’s analysis points to this shift as evidence of a lack of long-term planning and foresight.

塞勒的矛盾言論歷史加劇了這種批評。 2013 年，他曾多次斥責比特幣“無用”，但近年來，他將 MicroStrategy 的未來寄託在加密貨幣上，使其成為公司戰略的核心。金的分析指出，這種轉變是缺乏長期規劃和遠見的證據。

The soaring price of Bitcoin has certainly worked in MicroStrategy’s favor, with the cryptocurrency’s value recently surging past $100,000, contributing to a 120% increase in its value this year alone. The sudden spike gave a big thrust to the firm’s portfolio and further supported its strategy, some investors said.

比特幣價格的飆升無疑對 MicroStrategy 有利，該加密貨幣的價值最近飆升至 10 萬美元以上，光是今年就成長了 120%。一些投資者表示，突然的上漲給該公司的投資組合帶來了巨大的推動力，並進一步支持了其策略。

MicroStrategy, for example, has acquired an additional 249,850 BTC from 2024 to date, taking its total holding to 439,000 BTC, way above that held by its nearest competitor, Marathon Digital.

例如，從 2024 年至今，MicroStrategy 已額外收購了 249,850 BTC，使其總持有量達到 439,000 BTC，遠高於其最接近的競爭對手 Marathon Digital 的持有量。

But with Bitcoin’s continued rise comes a growing set of risks attached to the heavy reliance of MicroStrategy on its price. The stock has surged—to be sure, highly volatile, moving in concert with Bitcoin’s ups and downs.

但隨著比特幣的持續上漲，MicroStrategy 對其價格的嚴重依賴帶來了越來越多的風險。該股已經飆升——當然，波動性很大，與比特幣的漲跌一致。

The market value of MicroStrategy may be significantly impacted if Bitcoin’s value declines or remains unchanged. This is due to the fact that the business is very dependent on Bitcoin’s ongoing expansion.

如果比特幣的價值下跌或保持不變，MicroStrategy 的市值可能會受到重大影響。這是因為該業務非常依賴比特幣的持續擴張。

MicroStrategy is certain that its Bitcoin approach will benefit shareholders in the long run, despite these risks. The company’s visibility and appeal may increase if it is included in the Nasdaq 100 Index, which could help draw institutional investors.

儘管存在這些風險，MicroStrategy 確信其比特幣策略在長期內將使股東受益。如果該公司被納入納斯達克 100 指數，其知名度和吸引力可能會增加，這可能有助於吸引機構投資者。

A Fragile Future?

脆弱的未來？

While MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy has undoubtedly made it one of the most closely watched companies in the cryptocurrency space, its future remains uncertain.

儘管 MicroStrategy 的比特幣策略無疑使其成為加密貨幣領域最受關注的公司之一，但其未來仍不確定。

For now, the company continues to reap the rewards of Bitcoin’s surge, but the question remains: how long can this strategy sustain itself?

目前，該公司繼續獲得比特幣飆升的回報，但問題仍然存在：這種策略能夠維持多久？

If Bitcoin’s price were to fall significantly, the company’s leverage and market cap could be at risk, leaving investors to face the consequences.

如果比特幣的價格大幅下跌，該公司的槓桿率和市值可能會面臨風險，讓投資者面臨後果。

As Saylor continues to advocate for Bitcoin’s integration into major tech companies—most notably Microsoft—his vision for the future of cryptocurrency remains steadfast.

隨著塞勒繼續倡導比特幣融入大型科技公司（尤其是微軟），他對加密貨幣未來的願景仍然堅定。

However, as critics like Jacob King argue, the risks associated with MicroStrategy’s strategy cannot be ignored. Only time will tell whether this bold experiment will pay off or if it will

然而，正如 Jacob King 等批評者所說，與 MicroStrategy 策略相關的風險不容忽視。只有時間才能證明這個大膽的實驗是否會成功