分析师预测，到 2035 年，比特币的“公允价值”将达到 100 万美元

根据比特币用户数量的增长曲线，分析师 Willy Woo 预测，到 2035 年，该资产的“公允价值”可能达到 100 万美元。分析表明，自 2012 年以来，比特币投资者数量与比特币价格之间存在相关性，价格围绕从采用曲线得出的公允价值线。尽管牛市期间存在历史偏差，但吴的预测提供了对比特币未来潜在价值的洞察。

Bitcoin's Fair Value Projected to Reach $1 Million by 2035, Analyst Predicts

分析师预测，到 2035 年，比特币的公允价值预计将达到 100 万美元

A recent analysis by industry expert Willy Woo suggests that Bitcoin's "fair value" is trending towards a significant milestone of $1 million by the year 2035. This projection is based on the cryptocurrency's historical growth curve in terms of its total user count.

行业专家 Willy Woo 最近的一项分析表明，到 2035 年，比特币的“公允价值”有望达到 100 万美元的重要里程碑。这一预测是基于加密货币总用户数量的历史增长曲线。

Total User Count as a Indicator of Bitcoin's Fair Value

用户总数作为比特币公允价值的指标

In the context of Bitcoin, the "total user count" represents the total number of investors actively participating in the ecosystem. This metric is often approximated by counting the number of addresses on the network with a non-zero balance. However, this method may not fully capture the true number of users, as many investors maintain multiple wallets.

在比特币的背景下，“用户总数”代表了积极参与生态系统的投资者总数。该指标通常通过计算网络上余额非零的地址数量来近似。然而，这种方法可能无法完全捕获真实的用户数量，因为许多投资者持有多个钱包。

To provide a more accurate estimate of the adoption curve, Woo utilized data from various studies that have analyzed the user count of Bitcoin. The resulting curve, as depicted in a chart shared by Woo, exhibits a consistent growth trend.

为了更准确地估计采用曲线，Woo 利用了分析比特币用户数量的各种研究的数据。正如 Woo 分享的图表所示，所得曲线呈现出一致的增长趋势。

Historical Correlation of Bitcoin Price with User Growth Curve

比特币价格与用户增长曲线的历史相关性

Interestingly, Bitcoin's price has historically oscillated around this user growth curve since 2012. This means that the cryptocurrency's value has tended to follow the trajectory of its user adoption. Prior to 2012, this correlation was less pronounced.

有趣的是，自 2012 年以来，比特币的价格一直围绕这条用户增长曲线波动。这意味着加密货币的价值往往遵循其用户采用的轨迹。 2012 年之前，这种相关性不太明显。

Woo attributes the price discovery process in Bitcoin's early days to the emergence of marketplaces such as New Liberty Standard and MtGox. With the launch of Bitstamp in August 2011, global exchanges established a more robust pricing mechanism for the asset.

Woo 将比特币早期的价格发现过程归因于 New Liberty Standard 和 MtGox 等市场的出现。随着2011年8月Bitstamp的推出，全球交易所为该资产建立了更健全的定价机制。

Fair Value Projection and Implications

公允价值预测和影响

Assuming that the historical relationship between Bitcoin's price and user growth curve continues to hold, Woo projects a "fair value" of $1 million per BTC by 2035. This fair value represents the line around which the asset's price has typically oscillated.

假设比特币价格和用户增长曲线之间的历史关系继续保持，Woo 预计到 2035 年，每个 BTC 的“公允价值”为 100 万美元。这个公允价值代表了资产价格通常围绕其波动的线。

It is important to note that Bitcoin's price has historically exceeded this fair value during bull markets. Therefore, future rallies may result in peak values that significantly surpass the projected $1 million mark.

值得注意的是，比特币的价格历史上在牛市期间都超过了这个公允价值。因此，未来的反弹可能会导致峰值大幅超过预计的 100 万美元大关。

Significance and Caveats

意义和注意事项

This projection provides valuable insights into the potential valuation of Bitcoin over the long term. However, it is essential to acknowledge that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and subject to various factors that can influence its price.

该预测为了解比特币的长期潜在估值提供了宝贵的见解。然而，必须承认加密货币市场波动性很大，并受到各种可能影响其价格的因素的影响。

Additionally, the total user count may not be a perfect indicator of Bitcoin's fair value, and other metrics, such as transaction volume and network utilization, may also play a role in determining its worth.

此外，用户总数可能并不是比特币公允价值的完美指标，交易量和网络利用率等其他指标也可能在确定其价值方面发挥作用。

Current Market Conditions

目前的市场状况

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline in price, dropping over 8% in the past week. Its current value stands at approximately $58,600. It remains to be seen how this recent price action will impact the cryptocurrency's long-term trajectory.

截至撰写本文时，比特币价格已大幅下跌，过去一周下跌超过 8%。目前其价值约为 58,600 美元。最近的价格走势将如何影响加密货币的长期轨迹还有待观察。

Conclusion

结论

While the projected fair value of $1 million per BTC by 2035 offers a compelling target for long-term investors, it is crucial to approach this projection with caution and consider the risks associated with any investment in the cryptocurrency market. Further analysis and monitoring of the market are necessary to assess whether this price target remains feasible in the evolving landscape of digital assets.

虽然预计到 2035 年每比特币的公允价值为 100 万美元，这对于长期投资者来说是一个令人信服的目标，但谨慎对待这一预测并考虑与加密货币市场任何投资相关的风险至关重要。有必要对市场进行进一步的分析和监控，以评估该价格目标在不断变化的数字资产格局中是否仍然可行。