分析師預測，到 2035 年，比特幣的「公允價值」將達到 100 萬美元

根據比特幣用戶數量的成長曲線，分析師Willy Woo 預測，到2035 年，該資產的「公允價值」可能達到100 萬美元。間存在相關性，價格圍繞從採用曲線得出的公允價值線。儘管牛市期間存在歷史偏差，但吳的預測提供了對比特幣未來潛在價值的見解。

Bitcoin's Fair Value Projected to Reach $1 Million by 2035, Analyst Predicts

分析師預測，到 2035 年，比特幣的公允價值預計將達到 100 萬美元

A recent analysis by industry expert Willy Woo suggests that Bitcoin's "fair value" is trending towards a significant milestone of $1 million by the year 2035. This projection is based on the cryptocurrency's historical growth curve in terms of its total user count.

產業專家 Willy Woo 最近的一項分析表明，到 2035 年，比特幣的「公允價值」有望達到 100 萬美元的重要里程碑。

Total User Count as a Indicator of Bitcoin's Fair Value

用戶總數作為比特幣公允價值的指標

In the context of Bitcoin, the "total user count" represents the total number of investors actively participating in the ecosystem. This metric is often approximated by counting the number of addresses on the network with a non-zero balance. However, this method may not fully capture the true number of users, as many investors maintain multiple wallets.

在比特幣的背景下，「用戶總數」代表了積極參與生態系統的投資者總數。此指標通常透過計算網路上餘額非零的位址數量來近似。然而，這種方法可能無法完全捕捉真實的用戶數量，因為許多投資者持有多個錢包。

To provide a more accurate estimate of the adoption curve, Woo utilized data from various studies that have analyzed the user count of Bitcoin. The resulting curve, as depicted in a chart shared by Woo, exhibits a consistent growth trend.

為了更準確地估計採用曲線，Woo 利用了分析比特幣用戶數量的各種研究的數據。正如 Woo 分享的圖表所示，所得曲線呈現一致的成長趨勢。

Historical Correlation of Bitcoin Price with User Growth Curve

比特幣價格與用戶成長曲線的歷史相關性

Interestingly, Bitcoin's price has historically oscillated around this user growth curve since 2012. This means that the cryptocurrency's value has tended to follow the trajectory of its user adoption. Prior to 2012, this correlation was less pronounced.

有趣的是，自 2012 年以來，比特幣的價格一直圍繞著這條用戶成長曲線波動。 2012 年之前，這種相關性較不明顯。

Woo attributes the price discovery process in Bitcoin's early days to the emergence of marketplaces such as New Liberty Standard and MtGox. With the launch of Bitstamp in August 2011, global exchanges established a more robust pricing mechanism for the asset.

Woo 將比特幣早期的價格發現過程歸因於 New Liberty Standard 和 MtGox 等市場的出現。隨著2011年8月Bitstamp的推出，全球交易所為該資產建立了更健全的定價機制。

Fair Value Projection and Implications

公允價值預測與影響

Assuming that the historical relationship between Bitcoin's price and user growth curve continues to hold, Woo projects a "fair value" of $1 million per BTC by 2035. This fair value represents the line around which the asset's price has typically oscillated.

假設比特幣價格和用戶成長曲線之間的歷史關係持續保持，Woo 預計到 2035 年，每個 BTC 的「公允價值」為 100 萬美元。

It is important to note that Bitcoin's price has historically exceeded this fair value during bull markets. Therefore, future rallies may result in peak values that significantly surpass the projected $1 million mark.

值得注意的是，比特幣的價格歷史上在牛市期間都超過了這個公允價值。因此，未來的反彈可能會導致高峰大幅超過預計的 100 萬美元大關。

Significance and Caveats

意義和注意事項

This projection provides valuable insights into the potential valuation of Bitcoin over the long term. However, it is essential to acknowledge that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and subject to various factors that can influence its price.

該預測為了解比特幣的長期潛在估值提供了寶貴的見解。然而，必須承認加密貨幣市場波動性很大，並受到各種可能影響其價格的因素的影響。

Additionally, the total user count may not be a perfect indicator of Bitcoin's fair value, and other metrics, such as transaction volume and network utilization, may also play a role in determining its worth.

此外，用戶總數可能並不是比特幣公允價值的完美指標，交易量和網路利用率等其他指標也可能在確定其價值方面發揮作用。

Current Market Conditions

目前的市場狀況

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline in price, dropping over 8% in the past week. Its current value stands at approximately $58,600. It remains to be seen how this recent price action will impact the cryptocurrency's long-term trajectory.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣價格已大幅下跌，過去一週下跌超過 8%。目前其價值約為 58,600 美元。最近的價格走勢將如何影響加密貨幣的長期軌跡還有待觀察。

Conclusion

結論

While the projected fair value of $1 million per BTC by 2035 offers a compelling target for long-term investors, it is crucial to approach this projection with caution and consider the risks associated with any investment in the cryptocurrency market. Further analysis and monitoring of the market are necessary to assess whether this price target remains feasible in the evolving landscape of digital assets.

雖然預計到2035 年每比特幣的公允價值為100 萬美元，這對於長期投資者來說是一個令人信服的目標，但謹慎對待這一預測並考慮與加密貨幣市場任何投資相關的風險至關重要。有必要對市場進行進一步的分析和監控，以評估該價格目標在不斷變化的數位資產格局中是否仍然可行。