CryptoQuant 首席执行官表示，为什么山寨币季节会推迟

比特币上周快速逼近 100,000 美元水平，但短暂止住，最终仍触及 99,645 美元的历史新高。

Bitcoin price hit a fresh all-time high of $99,645 on Nov. 25, following a rapid ascent from hitting the $80,000 level just two weeks prior. The flagship cryptocurrency’s rally has left market participants speculating about the imminence of an altcoin season.

继两周前触及 80,000 美元的水平后，比特币价格于 11 月 25 日创下新的历史新高 99,645 美元。旗舰加密货币的反弹让市场参与者猜测山寨币季节即将到来。

An altseason usually refers to a crypto market phase where altcoins explode in value to often outshine Bitcoin. But one analyst has argued that a capital altcoin season won’t unfold as expected until there are new capital injections from retail investors.

山寨币季节通常指的是加密货币市场阶段，山寨币的价值爆炸性增长，常常超过比特币。但一位分析师认为，除非散户投资者注入新的资金，否则资本山寨币季节不会按预期展开。

In a lengthy analysis post on Nov. 27, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju noted that the nature of capital flowing into Bitcoin has shifted compared to the previous market cycle. The current bull market is primarily dominated by institutional investors and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

CryptoQuant 创始人兼首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 在 11 月 27 日发表的一篇长篇分析文章中指出，与之前的市场周期相比，流入比特币的资本性质已经发生了变化。当前的牛市主要由机构投资者和现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）主导。

“Compared to the last cycle, the nature of capital flowing into $BTC has shifted,” wrote Young Ju.

Young Ju 写道：“与上一个周期相比，流入 BTC 的资本性质已经发生了变化。”

“The current Bitcoin rally is primarily driven by demand from institutional investors and spot ETFs.”

“当前比特币的上涨主要是由机构投资者和现货 ETF 的需求推动的。”

Unlike crypto exchange users, Young Ju said institutional investors and ETF buyers are not interested in rotating their assets from Bitcoin to altcoins. Furthermore, as they continue operating outside of digital asset exchanges, the rotation of assets becomes less possible.

Young Ju 表示，与加密货币交易所用户不同，机构投资者和 ETF 买家对将资产从比特币转向山寨币不感兴趣。此外，随着它们继续在数字资产交易所之外运营，资产轮换的可能性变得越来越小。

He also observed that altcoin market capitalization remains well below its current all-time high, indicating reduced fresh liquidity from new exchange users.

他还观察到，山寨币市值仍远低于当前的历史高点，这表明新交易所用户的新鲜流动性减少。

“For altcoins to reach a new all-time high market capitalization, they will require a significant influx of fresh capital to crypto exchanges,” wrote the quant analyst.

这位量化分析师写道：“山寨币要达到历史新高的市值，就需要大量新资本流入加密货币交易所。”

Altseason will only be for a few coins: CryptoQuant CEO

CryptoQuant 首席执行官：Altseason 只适用于少数代币

The CryptoQuant CEO claimed that reigniting Bitcoin retail FOMO could increase exchange activity, potentially laying the foundation for an altcoin season. But Bitcoin’s future growth is anticipated to come from exchange-traded funds, institutions, and also governments rather than retail traders on crypto exchanges.

CryptoQuant 首席执行官声称，重新点燃比特币零售的 FOMO 可能会增加交易活动，可能为山寨币季节奠定基础。但比特币的未来增长预计将来自交易所交易基金、机构和政府，而不是加密货币交易所的零售交易商。

As such, Young Ju believes altcoins should instead focus on creating their own strategies to attract fresh capital rather than fully depending on BTC’s momentum.

因此，Young Ju 认为山寨币应该专注于制定自己的策略来吸引新资本，而不是完全依赖 BTC 的势头。

He went on to emphasize that while he is bullish on altcoins, he thinks that only a select few coins will manage to attract fresh capital, adding:

他接着强调，虽然他看好山寨币，但他认为只有少数几种硬币能够吸引新资本，并补充道：

“I’m still bullish on altcoins, but altcoin season will come, but it’ll be for a few. Not every altcoin will hit its previous ATH.”

“我仍然看好山寨币，但山寨币季节将会到来，但只会针对少数人。并非所有山寨币都会达到之前的 ATH。”