CryptoQuant 執行長表示，山寨幣季節為何推遲

比特幣上週快速逼近 10 萬美元水平，但短暫止住，最終仍觸及 99,645 美元的歷史新高。

Bitcoin price hit a fresh all-time high of $99,645 on Nov. 25, following a rapid ascent from hitting the $80,000 level just two weeks prior. The flagship cryptocurrency’s rally has left market participants speculating about the imminence of an altcoin season.

繼兩週前觸及 8 萬美元的水平後，比特幣價格於 11 月 25 日創下新的歷史新高 99,645 美元。旗艦加密貨幣的反彈讓市場參與者猜測山寨幣季節即將到來。

An altseason usually refers to a crypto market phase where altcoins explode in value to often outshine Bitcoin. But one analyst has argued that a capital altcoin season won’t unfold as expected until there are new capital injections from retail investors.

山寨幣季節通常指的是加密貨幣市場階段，山寨幣的價值爆炸性成長，常常超過比特幣。但一位分析師認為，除非散戶投資者註入新的資金，否則資本山寨幣季節不會如預期展開。

In a lengthy analysis post on Nov. 27, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju noted that the nature of capital flowing into Bitcoin has shifted compared to the previous market cycle. The current bull market is primarily dominated by institutional investors and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

CryptoQuant 創辦人兼執行長 Ki Young Ju 在 11 月 27 日發表的一篇長篇分析文章中指出，與先前的市場週期相比，流入比特幣的資本性質已經改變了。目前的多頭市場主要由機構投資者和現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）主導。

“Compared to the last cycle, the nature of capital flowing into $BTC has shifted,” wrote Young Ju.

Young Ju 寫道：“與上一個週期相比，流入 BTC 的資本性質已經發生了變化。”

“The current Bitcoin rally is primarily driven by demand from institutional investors and spot ETFs.”

「當前比特幣的上漲主要是由機構投資者和現貨 ETF 的需求推動的。”

Unlike crypto exchange users, Young Ju said institutional investors and ETF buyers are not interested in rotating their assets from Bitcoin to altcoins. Furthermore, as they continue operating outside of digital asset exchanges, the rotation of assets becomes less possible.

Young Ju 表示，與加密貨幣交易所用戶不同，機構投資者和 ETF 買家對將資產從比特幣轉向山寨幣不感興趣。此外，隨著它們繼續在數位資產交易所之外運營，資產輪換的可能性變得越來越小。

He also observed that altcoin market capitalization remains well below its current all-time high, indicating reduced fresh liquidity from new exchange users.

他還觀察到，山寨幣市值仍遠低於當前的歷史高點，這表明新交易所用戶的新鮮流動性減少。

“For altcoins to reach a new all-time high market capitalization, they will require a significant influx of fresh capital to crypto exchanges,” wrote the quant analyst.

這位量化分析師寫道：“山寨幣要達到歷史新高的市值，就需要大量新資本流入加密貨幣交易所。”

Altseason will only be for a few coins: CryptoQuant CEO

CryptoQuant 執行長：Altseason 只適用於少數代幣

The CryptoQuant CEO claimed that reigniting Bitcoin retail FOMO could increase exchange activity, potentially laying the foundation for an altcoin season. But Bitcoin’s future growth is anticipated to come from exchange-traded funds, institutions, and also governments rather than retail traders on crypto exchanges.

CryptoQuant 執行長聲稱，重新點燃比特幣零售的 FOMO 可能會增加交易活動，可能為山寨幣季節奠定基礎。但比特幣的未來成長預計將來自交易所交易基金、機構和政府，而不是加密貨幣交易所的零售交易商。

As such, Young Ju believes altcoins should instead focus on creating their own strategies to attract fresh capital rather than fully depending on BTC’s momentum.

因此，Young Ju 認為山寨幣應該專注於制定自己的策略來吸引新資本，而不是完全依賴 BTC 的勢頭。

He went on to emphasize that while he is bullish on altcoins, he thinks that only a select few coins will manage to attract fresh capital, adding:

他接著強調，雖然他看好山寨幣，但他認為只有少數幾種硬幣能夠吸引新資本，並補充道：

“I’m still bullish on altcoins, but altcoin season will come, but it’ll be for a few. Not every altcoin will hit its previous ATH.”

「我仍然看好山寨幣，但山寨幣季節將會到來，但只會針對少數人。並非所有山寨幣都會達到先前的 ATH。