这就是为什么山寨币投资者尽管比特币、以太币价格接近年度高点仍苦苦挣扎

代币解锁不断稀释供应、来自风险基金的抛售压力、缺乏新的加密资金流入以及季节性趋势，都导致了山寨币价格的大幅下跌。

The cryptocurrency market has seen a healthy consolidation after a massive run-up from October to March – at least for those who invested in the two largest digital assets.

在从 10 月到 3 月的大幅上涨之后，加密货币市场出现了健康的整合——至少对于那些投资这两种最大数字资产的人来说是这样。

Those who hold smaller cryptocurrencies, however, are experiencing a brutal correction, with sentiment in crypto social media circles bearing a striking resemblance to the despair of a bear market.

然而，那些持有较小加密货币的人正在经历残酷的调整，加密货币社交媒体圈的情绪与熊市的绝望有着惊人的相似之处。

While bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum's ether (ETH) are only 15% below their yearly highs, several crypto majors like solana (SOL) and avalanche (AVAX) are down 40% to 50% from their March peaks, and layer-1 challengers sui (SUI) and aptos (APT) have cratered 60% to 70%.

虽然比特币 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 的价格仅比年度高点低 15%，但 solana (SOL) 和 Avalanche (AVAX) 等几个加密货币巨头的价格较 3 月份的峰值下跌了 40% 至 50%，而 Layer-1 挑战者sui (SUI) 和 aptos (APT) 已经崩溃了 60% 到 70%。

Selling pressure from venture funds with broadening supply and token unlocks, a lack of fresh inflows to crypto and seasonal trends have all contributed to the weakness in altcoins, a term used to describe cryptocurrencies beyond the biggest ones like bitcoin and ether.

来自风险基金的抛售压力、供应扩大和代币解锁、加密货币新资金流入的缺乏以及季节性趋势都导致了山寨币的疲软，山寨币是用于描述比特币和以太币等最大加密货币之外的加密货币的术语。

Many altcoins experience a constantly diluting supply of tokens via unlocks and distributions scheduled for years ahead. This is because most of the tokens are locked up, bought by early investors or earmarked for ecosystem developments and grants.

许多山寨币会通过未来几年的解锁和分配来不断稀释代币的供应。这是因为大多数代币都被锁定，由早期投资者购买或指定用于生态系统开发和赠款。

For example, Ethereum layer-2 network Arbitrum's token (ARB) is nearing its all-time low price from last September, even though its market capitalization has risen to $2.5 billion from $1 billion because of a massive increase in its supply.

例如，以太坊二层网络 Arbitrum 的代币（ARB）价格已接近去年 9 月以来的历史最低点，尽管由于供应量大幅增加，其市值已从 10 亿美元升至 25 亿美元。

Another example is solana, whose supply is inflating by 75,000 tokens, worth some $10 million at current prices, every day.

另一个例子是 solana，其供应量每天增加 75,000 个代币，按当前价格计算价值约 1000 万美元。

"Unlike equities which have a constant passive bid from ETF inflows and bond buybacks, crypto, and in particular altcoins, have the opposite – a constant stream of sell pressure," Quinn Thomson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, noted in an X post.

加密货币对冲基金 Lekker Capital 创始人 Quinn Thomson 在一份 X 报告中指出：“与股票不同，股票会因 ETF 流入和债券回购而持续被动出价，而加密货币，尤其是山寨币，则相反，即持续不断的抛售压力。”邮政。

A significant portion of the selling pressure comes from venture capital funds realizing profits on their early investments in projects launched over the past years.

抛售压力的很大一部分来自风险投资基金在过去几年推出的项目的早期投资中实现的利润。

"Venture capital funds invested $13 billion in Q1 2022, while the market turned into a steep bear market," Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a report earlier this week. "Those funds are now under pressure from their investors to return capital as artificial intelligence (AI) has become a hotter theme."

10x Research 创始人马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 在本周早些时候的一份报告中表示：“风险投资基金在 2022 年第一季度投资了 130 亿美元，而市场却陷入了严重的熊市。” “随着人工智能（AI）成为更热门的主题，这些基金现在面临着投资者要求返还资金的压力。”

When the market's appetite for the smaller, more speculative crypto assets is dwindling and trading volumes are falling – like in the past few months – there's not enough demand to absorb this supply shock.

当市场对规模较小、投机性更强的加密资产的兴趣减弱且交易量下降时（就像过去几个月一样），就没有足够的需求来吸收这种供应冲击。

Liquidity inflows to crypto markets have also stalled or even reversed over the past weeks, shown by the market value of stablecoins, which are mostly used as an intermediary for crypto trading.

过去几周，加密货币市场的流动性流入也陷入停滞甚至逆转，稳定币的市值就表明了这一点，稳定币主要用作加密货币交易的中介。

The combined market capitalization of the four largest stablecoins – Tether's USDT, Circle's USDC, First Digital's FDUSD and Maker's DAI – has been flat since April after a $30 billion expansion earlier this year, per TradingView data.

根据 TradingView 的数据，四大稳定币——Tether 的 USDT、Circle 的 USDC、First Digital 的 FDUSD 和 Maker 的 DAI——的总市值在今年早些时候扩张了 300 亿美元后，自 4 月份以来一直持平。

Stablecoin balances on exchanges – which translates to dry powder for traders and investors – decreased $4 billion to the lowest level since February, David Shuttleworth, partner at Anagram, pointed out in an X post citing Nansen data.

Anagram 合伙人 David Shuttleworth 在 X 帖子中援引 Nansen 的数据指出，交易所的稳定币余额（对交易者和投资者而言就是干粉）减少了 40 亿美元，降至 2 月份以来的最低水平。

"This has particularly bad implications for tokens with large upcoming unlocks as well as new [tokens] and airdrop programs," Shuttleworth said.

“这对于即将解锁的代币以及新的[代币]和空投计划尤其不利，”沙特尔沃思说。

Recently launched tokens of blockchain bridge Wormhole {{W}}, yield-bearing synthetic dollar protocol Ethena {{ENA}} and layer-2 network Starknet (STRK) all plummeted roughly 60% to 70% in price from their respective highs and will face billions of dollars worth of tokens being distributed in the coming years.

最近推出的区块链桥 Wormhole {{W}}、收益合成美元协议 Ethena {{ENA}} 和第 2 层网络 Starknet (STRK) 的代币价格均较各自高点暴跌约 60% 至 70%，未来几年将面临价值数十亿美元的代币分发。

Seasonal trends have been also bearish for smaller tokens, with June usually being a down month for altcoins.

季节性趋势也对较小的代币不利，六月通常是山寨币的下跌月份。

TradingView data shows that the aggregated market cap for crypto assets excluding BTC and ETH, captured by TOTAL.3 metric, saw a decline in every June during the past six years.

TradingView 数据显示，根据 TOTAL.3 指标计算，除 BTC 和 ETH 之外的加密资产总市值在过去六年中每年 6 月都会出现下降。

This month is on track to be no exception, with TOTAL.3 down 11% to date.

本月也不例外，TOTAL.3 迄今为止已下跌 11%。