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Better Markets 正在利用 Polymarket 的“法国联系”作为对抗预测市场受监管竞争对手的弹药。
An activist group is using activity on the crypto prediction market Polymarket to argue against a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) appeal that would allow Kalshi to offer election markets.
一个激进组织正在利用加密货币预测市场 Polymarket 上的活动来反对商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 允许 Kalshi 提供选举市场的上诉。
In a friend-of-the-court brief filed Wednesday, Better Markets cited recent reports about a handful of Polymarket accounts that have made bets worth tens of millions on Donald Trump winning the presidency. (Polymarket confirmed to the New York Times this week that these accounts are all controlled by the same French national.)
在周三提交的一份法庭之友简报中,Better Markets 援引了最近有关少数 Polymarket 账户的报道,这些账户对唐纳德·特朗普赢得总统职位进行了价值数千万美元的赌注。 (Polymarket 本周向《纽约时报》证实,这些账户均由同一位法国国民控制。)
The group then went on to speculate that this activity could be manipulating the market or trying to create a false impression of momentum for Trump.
该组织随后推测,这一活动可能是在操纵市场,或试图为特朗普制造势头的假象。
"If the trading amounts to any one of these species of election or market manipulation, then it is also likely to artificially skew the pricing of contracts in a way that is divorced from election 'fundamentals,' thus creating volatility that will undoubtedly harm many smaller retail investors who have placed their own bets," the brief states.
“如果交易相当于任何一种选举或市场操纵,那么它也可能以脱离选举‘基本面’的方式人为地扭曲合约定价,从而造成波动,这无疑会损害许多规模较小的企业。自己下注的散户投资者,”简报指出。
"Better Markets urges the Court to vacate the District Court’s decision permitting event contracts on U.S. elections to trade on CFTC-registered exchanges and remand for further proceedings consistent with this brief."
“更好的市场敦促法院撤销地方法院允许美国选举事件合约在商品期货交易委员会注册的交易所进行交易的决定,并根据本简报发回进一步程序。”
However, Filip Pidot, a prediction market veteran and board member of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, told CoinDesk that there is "virtually no chance" the French trader is placing these bets for electoral purposes.
然而,预测市场资深人士、政治预测联盟董事会成员 Filip Pidot 告诉 CoinDesk,这位法国交易员“几乎没有机会”将这些赌注用于选举目的。
"I think the motives are clearly profit-driven," said Pidot, who has been closely tracking the whales' activities on his blog, The Super Model. "If the goal was to move the price, you'd do the opposite" as the French national.
“我认为这些动机显然是利润驱动的,”皮多特说,他一直在他的博客“超级模特”上密切关注鲸鱼的活动。作为法国人,“如果目标是改变价格,你就会做相反的事情”。
"Instead of having several accounts trading strategically with limit orders, you'd just keep plowing money in blindly and let yourself get filled at worse and worse prices, since that would be optimal if your goal was to artificially inflate the price," he said.
他说:“你不必让多个账户用限价订单进行战略性交易,而是继续盲目地投入资金,让自己以越来越差的价格成交,因为如果你的目标是人为抬高价格,那将是最佳选择。” 。
Polymarket told the Times the trader was “taking a directional position based on personal views of the election" and it found no evidence of attempted manipulation.
Polymarket 告诉《泰晤士报》,该交易员“根据个人对选举的看法采取方向性立场”,并且没有发现任何试图操纵的证据。
While Polymarket has seen billions in volume this year from political betting, Kalshi had to sit on the sidelines until this month, when the appeals court lifted an administrative stay pausing the company's election contracts.
尽管 Polymarket 今年的政治博彩交易量已达数十亿美元,但 Kalshi 不得不袖手旁观,直到本月上诉法院取消了暂停该公司选举合同的行政中止。
Thursday afternoon in New York, both platforms showed Trump ahead, with a 62.5% probability of winning on Polymarket ($2.1 billion in volume) and 59% on Kalshi ($60 million). So did PredictIt (58%, about $10 million) and Manifold Markets (58%, play money).
周四下午在纽约,两个平台都显示特朗普领先,在 Polymarket(交易额为 21 亿美元)上获胜的概率为 62.5%,在 Kalshi(交易额为 6000 万美元)上获胜的概率为 59%。 PredictIt(58%,约 1000 万美元)和 Manifold Markets(58%,游戏币)也是如此。
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