|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Better Markets 正在利用 Polymarket 的「法國聯繫」作為對抗預測市場受監管競爭對手的彈藥。
An activist group is using activity on the crypto prediction market Polymarket to argue against a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) appeal that would allow Kalshi to offer election markets.
一個激進組織正在利用加密貨幣預測市場 Polymarket 上的活動來反對商品期貨交易委員會 (CFTC) 允許 Kalshi 提供選舉市場的上訴。
In a friend-of-the-court brief filed Wednesday, Better Markets cited recent reports about a handful of Polymarket accounts that have made bets worth tens of millions on Donald Trump winning the presidency. (Polymarket confirmed to the New York Times this week that these accounts are all controlled by the same French national.)
在周三提交的一份法庭之友簡報中,Better Markets 引用了最近有關少數 Polymarket 帳戶的報道,這些帳戶對唐納德·川普贏得總統職位進行了價值數千萬美元的賭注。 (Polymarket 本周向《紐約時報》證實,這些帳戶均由同一名法國國民控制。)
The group then went on to speculate that this activity could be manipulating the market or trying to create a false impression of momentum for Trump.
該組織隨後推測,這項活動可能是在操縱市場,或試圖為川普製造勢頭的假象。
"If the trading amounts to any one of these species of election or market manipulation, then it is also likely to artificially skew the pricing of contracts in a way that is divorced from election 'fundamentals,' thus creating volatility that will undoubtedly harm many smaller retail investors who have placed their own bets," the brief states.
「如果交易相當於任何一種選舉或市場操縱,那麼它也可能以脫離選舉『基本面』的方式人為地扭曲合約定價,從而造成波動,這無疑會損害許多規模較小的企業。自己下注的散戶投資者,」簡報指出。
"Better Markets urges the Court to vacate the District Court’s decision permitting event contracts on U.S. elections to trade on CFTC-registered exchanges and remand for further proceedings consistent with this brief."
「更好的市場敦促法院撤銷地方法院允許美國選舉事件合約在商品期貨交易委員會註冊的交易所進行交易的決定,並根據本簡報發回進一步程序。”
However, Filip Pidot, a prediction market veteran and board member of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, told CoinDesk that there is "virtually no chance" the French trader is placing these bets for electoral purposes.
然而,預測市場資深人士、政治預測聯盟董事會成員 Filip Pidot 告訴 CoinDesk,這位法國交易員「幾乎沒有機會」將這些賭注用於選舉目的。
"I think the motives are clearly profit-driven," said Pidot, who has been closely tracking the whales' activities on his blog, The Super Model. "If the goal was to move the price, you'd do the opposite" as the French national.
「我認為這些動機顯然是利潤驅動的,」皮多特說,他一直在他的部落格「超級模特兒」上密切關注鯨魚的活動。身為法國人,「如果目標是改變價格,你就會做相反的事」。
"Instead of having several accounts trading strategically with limit orders, you'd just keep plowing money in blindly and let yourself get filled at worse and worse prices, since that would be optimal if your goal was to artificially inflate the price," he said.
他說:「你不必讓多個帳戶用限價訂單進行策略性交易,而是繼續盲目地投入資金,讓自己以越來越差的價格成交,因為如果你的目標是人為抬高價格,那將是最佳選擇。
Polymarket told the Times the trader was “taking a directional position based on personal views of the election" and it found no evidence of attempted manipulation.
Polymarket 告訴《泰晤士報》,該交易員“根據個人對選舉的看法採取方向性立場”,並且沒有發現任何試圖操縱的證據。
While Polymarket has seen billions in volume this year from political betting, Kalshi had to sit on the sidelines until this month, when the appeals court lifted an administrative stay pausing the company's election contracts.
儘管 Polymarket 今年的政治博彩交易量已達數十億美元,但 Kalshi 不得不袖手旁觀,直到本月上訴法院取消了暫停該公司選舉合約的行政中止。
Thursday afternoon in New York, both platforms showed Trump ahead, with a 62.5% probability of winning on Polymarket ($2.1 billion in volume) and 59% on Kalshi ($60 million). So did PredictIt (58%, about $10 million) and Manifold Markets (58%, play money).
週四下午在紐約,兩個平台都顯示川普領先,在Polymarket(交易額為21 億美元)上獲勝的機率為62.5%,在Kalshi(交易額為6000 萬美元)上獲勝的機率為59 %。 PredictIt(58%,約 1000 萬美元)和 Manifold Markets(58%,遊戲幣)也是如此。
免責聲明:info@kdj.com
所提供的資訊並非交易建議。 kDJ.com對任何基於本文提供的資訊進行的投資不承擔任何責任。加密貨幣波動性較大,建議您充分研究後謹慎投資!
如果您認為本網站使用的內容侵犯了您的版權,請立即聯絡我們(info@kdj.com),我們將及時刪除。
-
- 罕見的 1945 年硬幣可能價值數萬英鎊 - 您的錢包裡有一枚嗎?
- 2024-10-25 10:25:01
- 一位硬幣專家敦促人們檢查他們的錢罐和錢包,或者一件可能價值數萬英鎊的非常稀有的物品。
-
- 價值不斐的 1945 年罕見硬幣藏在人們的錢罐裡和沙發後面
- 2024-10-25 10:25:01
- 人們被敦促檢查他們的錢罐、錢包,甚至沙發後面,尋找一枚可能價值不菲的極其罕見的硬幣。