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比特幣(BTC)的價格在日線圖上顯示小幅上漲,顯示潛在的復甦。在這種發展和持續的市場波動中
Bitcoin (BTC) price showed a slight uptick in the daily chart, hinting at a possible recovery. As this unfolds and the market continues to exhibit volatility, a recent report from Bernstein Research attempts to predict a bullish rally for BTC.
比特幣(BTC)價格在日線圖上顯示小幅上漲,暗示可能會復甦。隨著這種情況的發展和市場繼續表現出波動性,伯恩斯坦研究公司最近的一份報告試圖預測比特幣的看漲反彈。
Bernstein's 2025 Bitcoin Bullish Prediction
Bernstein 的 2025 年比特幣看漲預測
In the report, Bernstein claims that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Bernstein cited the increasing institutional adoption and strong network fundamentals as key factors behind this bold Bitcoin price prediction.
Bernstein 在報告中聲稱,到 2025 年底,比特幣可能達到 20 萬美元。
Bernstein noted in the 160-page “Black Book” report that institutional investors are rapidly reshaping the Bitcoin network as they continue to increase adoption. Notably, ten global asset managers now control nearly $60 billion in regulated Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), a vast increase from the $12 billion recorded in September 2022. As a result, Bernstein anticipates that Wall Street will become the top Bitcoin holder, surpassing Satoshi, by the end of 2024.
伯恩斯坦在 160 頁的「黑皮書」報告中指出,機構投資者隨著比特幣採用率的不斷提高,正在迅速重塑比特幣網路。值得注意的是,十家全球資產管理公司目前控制著近600 億美元的受監管交易所交易基金(ETF),比2022 年9 月記錄的120 億美元大幅增加。最大的比特幣持有者,超越比特幣持有者。
This year's ETF landscape also demonstrates strong institutional enthusiasm. As covered by CNF, six of the top ten most successful ETFs launched in 2024 were Bitcoin-related products. While recent data showed a temporary pullback, with $79.1 million in outflows on October 22, the total assets under management have crossed $65 billion.
今年的ETF格局也展現出機構的強烈熱情。根據 CNF 報道,2024 年推出的十大最成功 ETF 中有 6 個是比特幣相關產品。雖然最近的數據顯示暫時回落,10 月 22 日流出 7,910 萬美元,但管理的總資產已超過 650 億美元。
Interestingly, leading asset manager BlackRock is making a huge contribution to the rising institutional interest in Bitcoin. As reported by CNF, BlackRock recently increased its Bitcoin stake, purchasing $1 billion via its iShares Bitcoin Trust. Altogether, the BlackRock fund now holds about $24 billion in BTC, which comprises roughly 1.76% of the coin’s total supply.
有趣的是,領先的資產管理公司貝萊德為機構對比特幣興趣的上升做出了巨大貢獻。根據 CNF 報導,貝萊德最近增加了其比特幣持股,並透過其 iShares 比特幣信託購買了 10 億美元。貝萊德基金目前總共持有價值約 240 億美元的 BTC,約佔比特幣總供應量的 1.76%。
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink now sees Bitcoin as a separate asset class, like gold. In an earlier CNF post, Fink argued that the upcoming US Presidential elections have no impact on BTC's price.
貝萊德執行長拉里·芬克現在將比特幣視為一種獨立的資產類別,就像黃金一樣。在早些時候的 CNF 帖子中,Fink 認為即將到來的美國總統選舉對 BTC 的價格沒有影響。
Meanwhile, JPMorgan noted that investors are making a “debasement trade” into gold and BTC as they brace for possible “catastrophic scenarios” amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
與此同時,摩根大通指出,投資者正在對黃金和比特幣進行“貶值交易”,因為他們在地緣政治緊張局勢升級的情況下為可能出現的“災難性場景”做準備。
Veteran hedge funder Paul Tudor Jones has also endorsed this view, indicating that he has long positions in Bitcoin and other commodities.
資深對沖基金家 Paul Tudor Jones 也同意這一點,表示他持有比特幣和其他大宗商品的多頭部位。
Bitcoin's Strong Network Fundamentals
比特幣強大的網路基礎
Bitcoin's current price movement shows both strength and caution. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $66,937, up 0.73% in the past 24 hours.
比特幣目前的價格走勢既顯示出強勢,也顯示出謹慎。截至撰寫本文時,BTC 交易價格為 66,937 美元,過去 24 小時上漲 0.73%。
Interestingly, BTC has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. Historically, this formation has a 60-70% success rate in predicting short-term reversals. Also, the futures market has seen Open Interest (OI) approach $40 billion, as prices test $69,000.
有趣的是,BTC 在日線圖上形成了一個看跌吞沒形態。從歷史上看,這種形態預測短期反轉的成功率為 60-70%。此外,隨著價格測試 69,000 美元,期貨市場的未平倉合約 (OI) 已接近 400 億美元。
Technical indicators show a likely retest of the $60,000 support level, with key resistance around $67,500 and $68,000. However, several elements indicate the network's fundamental strength.
技術指標顯示,可能會重新測試 60,000 美元的支撐位,關鍵阻力位在 67,500 美元和 68,000 美元附近。然而,有幾個因素顯示了該網絡的基本實力。
This includes a rising hashrate which reached record highs and increased active addresses since mid-September.
這包括算力不斷上升,達到歷史新高,以及自 9 月中旬以來活躍地址不斷增加。
Network fees have also increased, indicating substantial transaction activity. Furthermore, options traders show strong bullish sentiment, with Open Interest concentrating around $80,000 strike prices for November expiry.
網路費用也有所增加,顯示交易活動活躍。此外,選擇權交易商表現出強烈的看漲情緒,11 月到期的未平倉合約集中在 8 萬美元的執行價格附近。
In conclusion, the combination of institutional adoption and strengthening network fundamentals is expected to set Bitcoin up for a historic bullish rally soon.
總之,機構採用和加強網路基本面的結合預計將使比特幣很快迎來歷史性的看漲反彈。
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