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比特币(BTC)的价格在日线图上显示小幅上涨,表明潜在的复苏。在这种发展和持续的市场波动中
Bitcoin (BTC) price showed a slight uptick in the daily chart, hinting at a possible recovery. As this unfolds and the market continues to exhibit volatility, a recent report from Bernstein Research attempts to predict a bullish rally for BTC.
比特币(BTC)价格在日线图上显示小幅上涨,暗示可能会复苏。随着这种情况的发展和市场继续表现出波动性,伯恩斯坦研究公司最近的一份报告试图预测比特币的看涨反弹。
Bernstein's 2025 Bitcoin Bullish Prediction
Bernstein 的 2025 年比特币看涨预测
In the report, Bernstein claims that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Bernstein cited the increasing institutional adoption and strong network fundamentals as key factors behind this bold Bitcoin price prediction.
Bernstein 在报告中声称,到 2025 年底,比特币可能达到 20 万美元。Bernstein 指出,不断增加的机构采用率和强大的网络基础是这一大胆的比特币价格预测背后的关键因素。
Bernstein noted in the 160-page “Black Book” report that institutional investors are rapidly reshaping the Bitcoin network as they continue to increase adoption. Notably, ten global asset managers now control nearly $60 billion in regulated Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), a vast increase from the $12 billion recorded in September 2022. As a result, Bernstein anticipates that Wall Street will become the top Bitcoin holder, surpassing Satoshi, by the end of 2024.
伯恩斯坦在 160 页的“黑皮书”报告中指出,机构投资者随着比特币采用率的不断提高,正在迅速重塑比特币网络。值得注意的是,十家全球资产管理公司目前控制着近 600 亿美元的受监管交易所交易基金 (ETF),比 2022 年 9 月记录的 120 亿美元大幅增加。伯恩斯坦预计,华尔街将成为最大的比特币持有者,超越比特币持有者。中本聪,到 2024 年底。
This year's ETF landscape also demonstrates strong institutional enthusiasm. As covered by CNF, six of the top ten most successful ETFs launched in 2024 were Bitcoin-related products. While recent data showed a temporary pullback, with $79.1 million in outflows on October 22, the total assets under management have crossed $65 billion.
今年的ETF格局也显示出机构的强烈热情。据 CNF 报道,2024 年推出的十大最成功 ETF 中有 6 个是比特币相关产品。虽然最近的数据显示暂时回落,10 月 22 日流出 7,910 万美元,但管理的总资产已超过 650 亿美元。
Interestingly, leading asset manager BlackRock is making a huge contribution to the rising institutional interest in Bitcoin. As reported by CNF, BlackRock recently increased its Bitcoin stake, purchasing $1 billion via its iShares Bitcoin Trust. Altogether, the BlackRock fund now holds about $24 billion in BTC, which comprises roughly 1.76% of the coin’s total supply.
有趣的是,领先的资产管理公司贝莱德为机构对比特币兴趣的上升做出了巨大贡献。据 CNF 报道,贝莱德最近增加了其比特币持股,通过其 iShares 比特币信托购买了 10 亿美元。贝莱德基金目前总共持有价值约 240 亿美元的 BTC,约占比特币总供应量的 1.76%。
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink now sees Bitcoin as a separate asset class, like gold. In an earlier CNF post, Fink argued that the upcoming US Presidential elections have no impact on BTC's price.
贝莱德首席执行官拉里·芬克现在将比特币视为一种独立的资产类别,就像黄金一样。在早些时候的 CNF 帖子中,Fink 认为即将到来的美国总统选举对 BTC 的价格没有影响。
Meanwhile, JPMorgan noted that investors are making a “debasement trade” into gold and BTC as they brace for possible “catastrophic scenarios” amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
与此同时,摩根大通指出,投资者正在对黄金和比特币进行“贬值交易”,因为他们在地缘政治紧张局势升级的情况下为可能出现的“灾难性场景”做准备。
Veteran hedge funder Paul Tudor Jones has also endorsed this view, indicating that he has long positions in Bitcoin and other commodities.
资深对冲基金家 Paul Tudor Jones 也赞同这一观点,表示他持有比特币和其他大宗商品的多头头寸。
Bitcoin's Strong Network Fundamentals
比特币强大的网络基础
Bitcoin's current price movement shows both strength and caution. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $66,937, up 0.73% in the past 24 hours.
比特币当前的价格走势既显示出强势,也显示出谨慎。截至撰写本文时,BTC 交易价格为 66,937 美元,过去 24 小时上涨 0.73%。
Interestingly, BTC has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. Historically, this formation has a 60-70% success rate in predicting short-term reversals. Also, the futures market has seen Open Interest (OI) approach $40 billion, as prices test $69,000.
有趣的是,BTC 在日线图上形成了看跌吞没形态。从历史上看,这种形态预测短期反转的成功率为 60-70%。此外,随着价格测试 69,000 美元,期货市场的未平仓合约 (OI) 已接近 400 亿美元。
Technical indicators show a likely retest of the $60,000 support level, with key resistance around $67,500 and $68,000. However, several elements indicate the network's fundamental strength.
技术指标显示,可能会重新测试 60,000 美元的支撑位,关键阻力位在 67,500 美元和 68,000 美元附近。然而,有几个因素表明了该网络的基本实力。
This includes a rising hashrate which reached record highs and increased active addresses since mid-September.
这包括算力不断上升,达到历史新高,以及自 9 月中旬以来活跃地址不断增加。
Network fees have also increased, indicating substantial transaction activity. Furthermore, options traders show strong bullish sentiment, with Open Interest concentrating around $80,000 strike prices for November expiry.
网络费用也有所增加,表明交易活动活跃。此外,期权交易商表现出强烈的看涨情绪,11 月到期的未平仓合约集中在 80,000 美元的执行价格附近。
In conclusion, the combination of institutional adoption and strengthening network fundamentals is expected to set Bitcoin up for a historic bullish rally soon.
总之,机构采用和加强网络基本面的结合预计将使比特币很快迎来历史性的看涨反弹。
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