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Cryptocurrency News Articles
Activist Group Says Kalshi's Election Market Should Be Shut Due to 'Manipulative' Whales
Oct 25, 2024 at 03:04 am
Better Markets is using Polymarket's "French connection" as ammo against the prediction market's regulated competitor.
An activist group is using activity on the crypto prediction market Polymarket to argue against a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) appeal that would allow Kalshi to offer election markets.
In a friend-of-the-court brief filed Wednesday, Better Markets cited recent reports about a handful of Polymarket accounts that have made bets worth tens of millions on Donald Trump winning the presidency. (Polymarket confirmed to the New York Times this week that these accounts are all controlled by the same French national.)
The group then went on to speculate that this activity could be manipulating the market or trying to create a false impression of momentum for Trump.
"If the trading amounts to any one of these species of election or market manipulation, then it is also likely to artificially skew the pricing of contracts in a way that is divorced from election 'fundamentals,' thus creating volatility that will undoubtedly harm many smaller retail investors who have placed their own bets," the brief states.
"Better Markets urges the Court to vacate the District Court’s decision permitting event contracts on U.S. elections to trade on CFTC-registered exchanges and remand for further proceedings consistent with this brief."
However, Filip Pidot, a prediction market veteran and board member of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, told CoinDesk that there is "virtually no chance" the French trader is placing these bets for electoral purposes.
"I think the motives are clearly profit-driven," said Pidot, who has been closely tracking the whales' activities on his blog, The Super Model. "If the goal was to move the price, you'd do the opposite" as the French national.
"Instead of having several accounts trading strategically with limit orders, you'd just keep plowing money in blindly and let yourself get filled at worse and worse prices, since that would be optimal if your goal was to artificially inflate the price," he said.
Polymarket told the Times the trader was “taking a directional position based on personal views of the election" and it found no evidence of attempted manipulation.
While Polymarket has seen billions in volume this year from political betting, Kalshi had to sit on the sidelines until this month, when the appeals court lifted an administrative stay pausing the company's election contracts.
Thursday afternoon in New York, both platforms showed Trump ahead, with a 62.5% probability of winning on Polymarket ($2.1 billion in volume) and 59% on Kalshi ($60 million). So did PredictIt (58%, about $10 million) and Manifold Markets (58%, play money).
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