Aave (AAVE) 2023 年价格预测：鲸鱼抛售后山寨币会恢复吗？

过去两天，Aave [AAVE] 从 361 美元的高点下跌至 335 美元。这种下跌是由于大股东转向获利了结，试图最大限度地增加新年的收益而出现的。

Over the past two days, Aave’s [AAVE] price has declined from a high of $361 to $335. This decline arises as large holders have turned to profit-taking, trying to maximize the New Year’s pump.

过去两天，Aave 的 [AAVE] 价格已从 361 美元的高位下跌至 335 美元。这种下跌是由于大股东转向获利了结，试图最大限度地增加新年的收益而出现的。

According to SpotOnChain, a whale has sold 19,001 Aave tokens (roughly $6.5 million) via Binance. Through this sale, this whale secured a whooping $4.93 million in profit.

据 SpotOnChain 称，鲸鱼已通过币安出售了 19,001 个 Aave 代币（约 650 万美元）。通过这次出售，这头鲸鱼获得了高达 493 万美元的利润。

This is the first sale since the whale started accumulating the altcoin in 2024. The whale withdrew 89,109 tokens (worth $7.36 million) in June. After the recent deposit, the whale still holds 70,108 AAVE tokens, which were valued at $23.65 million.

这是自 2024 年鲸鱼开始积累山寨币以来的首次销售。6 月，鲸鱼撤回了 89,109 个代币（价值 736 万美元）。在最近的存款之后，鲸鱼仍然持有 70,108 个 AAVE 代币，价值 2365 万美元。

When whales begin to sell, it either shows their lack of confidence in the market or an attempt to maximize profit after a price pump. Such selling activity usually risks causing selling pressure, as investors might view the sale as a bearish sentiment, leading to weaker hands selling.

当鲸鱼开始抛售时，要么表明他们对市场缺乏信心，要么表明他们在价格上涨后试图实现利润最大化。此类抛售活动通常有造成抛售压力的风险，因为投资者可能将抛售视为看跌情绪，从而导致抛售意愿减弱。

Impact on price charts?

对价格图表的影响？

As expected, increased selling activity has harmed AAVE’s price charts. In fact, at the time of writing, AAVE was trading at $339.

正如预期的那样，销售活动的增加损害了 AAVE 的价格图表。事实上，在撰写本文时，AAVE 的交易价格为 339 美元。

This marked a 1.71% decline on daily charts. Before the decline, the altcoin had been on an upward trajectory hiking by 19.34% monthly.

这标志着日线图上下跌 1.71%。在下跌之前，山寨币一直处于上涨轨道，每月上涨 19.34%。

Although the altcoin has declined on its price charts as the whale started selling, it seems all market participants have turned bearish and anticipate prices to fall.

尽管随着鲸鱼开始抛售，山寨币在价格图表上有所下跌，但似乎所有市场参与者都转为看跌并预计价格会下跌。

This is evidenced by a bearish crossover on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) that has emerged over the past 24 hours. This confirms that sellers have entered the market and are still dominating.

过去 24 小时内出现的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 的看跌交叉就证明了这一点。这证实了卖家已经进入市场并且仍然占据主导地位。

Additionally, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is negative at -0.02, further confirming strong selling pressure.

此外，Chaikin 资金流量 (CMF) 为负值 -0.02，进一步证实了强劲的抛售压力。

Looking further, we can see this bearishness through the decline in on-chain outflow volume. According to IntoTheBlock, outflow volume has declined from 59.22k to 33.19k.

进一步来看，我们可以通过链上流出量的下降看到这种看跌情绪。根据 IntoTheBlock 的数据，流出量已从 59.22k 下降至 33.19k。

This shows that more investors are still keeping their AAVE tokens in exchanges.

这表明更多投资者仍在交易所保留 AAVE 代币。

This phenomenon is further evidenced by the rising netflows which have surged from -22.02k to 4.57k. This shows that more investors are transferring their tokens to exchanges than those accumulating. Such trends suggest investors are bearish and anticipate prices to decline.

净流量从 -22.02k 飙升至 4.57k，进一步证明了这一现象。这表明将代币转移到交易所的投资者多于积累的投资者。这种趋势表明投资者持悲观态度并预计价格会下跌。

Finally, AAVE’s NVT Ratio with transaction volume has spiked to extreme levels (323), which is associated with a potential market correction. This rise indicates that the network’s active users have declined relative to its market cap.

最后，AAVE 的 NVT 与交易量的比率已飙升至极端水平 (323)，这与潜在的市场调整相关。这一增长表明该网络的活跃用户相对于其市值有所下降。

Historically, a high NVT ratio often precedes market corrections since there’s a disconnect between prices and market fundamentals.

从历史上看，较高的 NVT 比率通常先于市场调整，因为价格与市场基本面之间存在脱节。

In conclusion, while whale selling is associated with increased selling pressure, it’s not an isolated case as investor sentiment has turned negative, although only in the short term.

总之，虽然鲸鱼抛售与抛售压力增加有关，但这并不是一个孤立的案例，因为投资者情绪已经转为负面，尽管只是在短期内。

If these market conditions continue, AAVE could drop to $324. If buyers reenter the market, a reversal could see the altcoin reclaim $354.

如果这些市场状况持续下去，AAVE 可能会跌至 324 美元。如果买家重新进入市场，山寨币可能会出现逆转，收回 354 美元。