Aave (AAVE) 2023 年價格預測：鯨魚拋售後山寨幣會恢復嗎？

過去兩天，Aave [AAVE] 從 361 美元的高點下跌至 335 美元。這種下跌是由於大股東轉向獲利了結，試圖最大限度地增加新年的收益而出現的。

Over the past two days, Aave’s [AAVE] price has declined from a high of $361 to $335. This decline arises as large holders have turned to profit-taking, trying to maximize the New Year’s pump.

過去兩天，Aave 的 [AAVE] 價格已從 361 美元的高點下跌至 335 美元。這種下跌是由於大股東轉向獲利了結，試圖最大限度地增加新年的收益而出現的。

According to SpotOnChain, a whale has sold 19,001 Aave tokens (roughly $6.5 million) via Binance. Through this sale, this whale secured a whooping $4.93 million in profit.

據 SpotOnChain 稱，鯨魚已透過幣安出售了 19,001 個 Aave 代幣（約 650 萬美元）。透過這次出售，這頭鯨魚獲得了高達 493 萬美元的利潤。

This is the first sale since the whale started accumulating the altcoin in 2024. The whale withdrew 89,109 tokens (worth $7.36 million) in June. After the recent deposit, the whale still holds 70,108 AAVE tokens, which were valued at $23.65 million.

這是自 2024 年鯨魚開始累積山寨幣以來的首次銷售。在最近的存款之後，鯨魚仍然持有 70,108 個 AAVE 代幣，價值 2365 萬美元。

When whales begin to sell, it either shows their lack of confidence in the market or an attempt to maximize profit after a price pump. Such selling activity usually risks causing selling pressure, as investors might view the sale as a bearish sentiment, leading to weaker hands selling.

當鯨魚開始拋售時，要么表明他們對市場缺乏信心，要么表明他們在價格上漲後試圖實現利潤最大化。此類拋售活動通常有造成拋售壓力的風險，因為投資者可能會將拋售視為看跌情緒，導致拋售意願減弱。

Impact on price charts?

對價格圖表的影響？

As expected, increased selling activity has harmed AAVE’s price charts. In fact, at the time of writing, AAVE was trading at $339.

正如預期的那樣，銷售活動的增加損害了 AAVE 的價格圖表。事實上，在撰寫本文時，AAVE 的交易價格為 339 美元。

This marked a 1.71% decline on daily charts. Before the decline, the altcoin had been on an upward trajectory hiking by 19.34% monthly.

這標誌著日線圖上下跌 1.71%。在下跌之前，山寨幣一直處於上漲軌道，每月上漲 19.34%。

Although the altcoin has declined on its price charts as the whale started selling, it seems all market participants have turned bearish and anticipate prices to fall.

儘管隨著鯨魚開始拋售，山寨幣在價格圖表上有所下跌，但似乎所有市場參與者都轉為看跌並預期價格會下跌。

This is evidenced by a bearish crossover on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) that has emerged over the past 24 hours. This confirms that sellers have entered the market and are still dominating.

過去 24 小時內出現的相對強弱指數 (RSI) 的看跌交叉就證明了這一點。這證實了賣家已經進入市場並且仍然佔據主導地位。

Additionally, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is negative at -0.02, further confirming strong selling pressure.

此外，Chaikin 資金流量 (CMF) 為負值 -0.02，進一步證實了強勁的拋售壓力。

Looking further, we can see this bearishness through the decline in on-chain outflow volume. According to IntoTheBlock, outflow volume has declined from 59.22k to 33.19k.

進一步來看，我們可以透過鏈上流出量的下降看到這種看跌情緒。根據 IntoTheBlock 的數據，流出量已從 59.22k 下降至 33.19k。

This shows that more investors are still keeping their AAVE tokens in exchanges.

這表明更多投資者仍在交易所保留 AAVE 代幣。

This phenomenon is further evidenced by the rising netflows which have surged from -22.02k to 4.57k. This shows that more investors are transferring their tokens to exchanges than those accumulating. Such trends suggest investors are bearish and anticipate prices to decline.

淨流量從 -22.02k 飆升至 4.57k，進一步證明了這一現象。這表明將代幣轉移到交易所的投資者多於累積的投資者。這種趨勢表明投資者持悲觀態度並預期價格會下跌。

Finally, AAVE’s NVT Ratio with transaction volume has spiked to extreme levels (323), which is associated with a potential market correction. This rise indicates that the network’s active users have declined relative to its market cap.

最後，AAVE 的 NVT 與交易量的比率已飆升至極端水準 (323)，這與潛在的市場調整相關。這一增長表明該網絡的活躍用戶相對於其市值有所下降。

Historically, a high NVT ratio often precedes market corrections since there’s a disconnect between prices and market fundamentals.

從歷史上看，較高的 NVT 比率通常先於市場調整，因為價格與市場基本面之間存在脫節。

In conclusion, while whale selling is associated with increased selling pressure, it’s not an isolated case as investor sentiment has turned negative, although only in the short term.

總之，雖然鯨魚拋售與拋售壓力增加有關，但這並不是一個孤立的案例，因為投資者情緒已經轉為負面，儘管只是在短期內。

If these market conditions continue, AAVE could drop to $324. If buyers reenter the market, a reversal could see the altcoin reclaim $354.

如果這些市場狀況持續下去，AAVE 可能會跌至 324 美元。如果買家重新進入市場，山寨幣可能會逆轉，收回 354 美元。