XRP 表現遜於比特幣，十年來下跌 96%

技術分析表明，自 2018 年以來，XRP 相對於 BTC 的表現較差，下跌了 96%。 XRP 上漲的強度已經減弱，顯示投資者持謹慎態度。歷史反彈並沒有扭轉 XRP 對 BTC 的貶值。 TD Sequential 和 Heikin Ashi 分析顯示存在進一步的下行潛力。 RSI 證實了 XRP 相對於 BTC 強勢的疲軟勢頭。克服 XRP 熊市趨勢需要重大的市場轉變。在 XRP 和 BTC 投資之間做出決定需要了解它們的價格行為和技術應用。

XRP's Underperformance Against Bitcoin: A Declining Trend Over a Decade

XRP 相對於比特幣的表現不佳：十年來呈現下降趨勢

Key Insights:

重要見解：

• XRP's value against BTC has depreciated by 96% since 2018, indicating a consistent bear trend.
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests diminishing momentum for XRP compared to Bitcoin's growing strength.
• Past XRP rallies against BTC have shown diminishing returns, reflecting reduced investor optimism.
• Shifting market dynamics are crucial for XRP to overcome its bearish trend against BTC.
• Evaluating XRP and BTC investments requires understanding their price behavior and technological applications.

Technical Analysis: A Deeper Look into XRP's Performance

自2018 年以來，XRP 相對BTC 的價值已貶值96%，顯示持續的熊市趨勢。的上漲表現出回報遞減，反映出投資者樂觀情緒的減弱.市場動態的變化對於XRP 克服其相對BTC 的看跌趨勢至關重要。 ：深入研究XRP 的表現

Technical indicators like price trends, resistance lines, and Tom De Marc's TD sequential indicator are employed in this analysis to gauge XRP's momentum and future prospects. The analysis aims to determine whether XRP's devaluation against BTC will persist and which cryptocurrency represents a more favorable investment opportunity in 2024.

此分析採用價格趨勢、阻力線和 Tom De Marc 的 TD 順序指標等技術指標來衡量 XRP 的勢頭和未來前景。該分析旨在確定 XRP 相對 BTC 的貶值是否會持續，以及哪種加密貨幣在 2024 年代表著更有利的投資機會。

Understanding XRP's Struggle Against Bitcoin: A Historical Perspective

了解 XRP 與比特幣的鬥爭：歷史視角

Examining the XRP/BTC chart from 2014 to 2024 provides insights into Ripple's (XRP) performance relative to Bitcoin (BTC) over a decade. The chart reveals multiple XRP pumps, or significant price increases against BTC, with the percentage gains marked on the chart.

透過檢查 2014 年至 2024 年的 XRP/BTC 圖表，可以深入了解 Ripple (XRP) 相對於比特幣 (BTC) 十年來的表現。該圖表顯示了多個 XRP 上漲，或相對於 BTC 的價格大幅上漲，圖表上標示了漲幅百分比。

During the period between 2014 and 2019, XRP demonstrated resilience and substantial recoveries against BTC after four distinct downtrends. The percentage gains during these pumps were:

2014 年至 2019 年期間，XRP 在經歷了四個明顯的下跌趨勢後表現出了韌性，並相對於 BTC 大幅復甦。這些泵浦期間的增益百分比為：

• Pump 1 (2014): 717%
• Pump 2 (2017): 3074%
• Pump 3 (2018): 267%
• Pump 4 (2019): 61%

Post-2019, the chart indicates a decline in the intensity and frequency of these bullish reversals, suggesting a weakening of XRP's relative strength and market dynamics. Recent pumps have become less pronounced, indicating a continuation or even intensification of the XRP/BTC downtrend with modest recoveries.

泵 1 (2014): 717% 泵 2 (2017): 3074% 泵 3 (2018): 267% 泵 4 (2019): 61% 2019 年後，圖表顯示這些看漲逆轉的強度和頻率有所下降，表明XRP 的相對強度和市場動態減弱。最近的漲勢變得不那麼明顯，顯示 XRP/BTC 的下跌趨勢持續甚至加劇​​，且略有復甦。

The diminished intensity of XRP's pumps against BTC could reflect a loss of momentum or reduced investor confidence in XRP compared to BTC. Since 2019, the market has clearly favored BTC as a store of value over XRP.

XRP 對 BTC 的拉動強度減弱可能反映出與 BTC 相比，XRP 的動力喪失或投資者對 XRP 的信心下降。自 2019 年以來，市場顯然更青睞 BTC 作為價值儲存手段，而不是 XRP。

Comparing XRP and Bitcoin: Analyzing Investment Outcomes

比較 XRP 和比特幣：分析投資結果

Consider the scenario in 2018 when XRP's peak value against BTC was 0.00022 BTC. By April 2024, the chart shows a decline to 0.00000828 BTC, representing a 96% drop over seven years.

考慮 2018 年的情況，當時 XRP 兌 BTC 的峰值為 0.00022 BTC。到 2024 年 4 月，圖表顯示比特幣數量下降至 0.00000828 BTC，七年來下降了 96%。

This significant devaluation contrasts with BTC's substantial rise from $17,000 in January 2018 to approximately $63,000 in April 2024. To reach the same price point as XRP in January 2018, XRP would require a remarkable 2595% rally against BTC.

這項大幅貶值與BTC 從2018 年1 月的17,000 美元大幅上漲至2024 年4 月的約63,000 美元形成鮮明對比。 2595%。

From an investment perspective, holding XRP since 2018 would have resulted in a severe decline in BTC value, while an investment in BTC during the same period would have yielded substantial growth against the United States Dollar (USD).

從投資角度來看，自2018年以來持有XRP將導致BTC價值嚴重下跌，而同期投資BTC則兌美元（USD）大幅成長。

XRP's Downward Trend Against BTC: A Closer Examination

XRP 相對 BTC 的下跌趨勢：進一步檢驗

Using the TD Sequential and Heikin Ashi analysis, the XRP/BTC trend can be further examined. The TD Sequential is a technical indicator that identifies potential price exhaustion and trend reversals.

使用 TD Sequential 和 Heikin Ashi 分析，可以進一步檢查 XRP/BTC 趨勢。 TD 序列是一種技術指標，可識別潛在的價格耗盡和趨勢逆轉。

In April 2024, the monthly XRP/BTC chart using Heikin Ashi candles reveals a TD Sequential count of 1 to 6 to the downside. This suggests the possibility of 3 more months of downside before a buy setup is triggered, indicating potential trend exhaustion and a possible reversal to the upside.

2024 年 4 月，使用 Heikin Ashi 蠟燭圖的 XRP/BTC 月度圖表顯示 TD 順序計數為 1 到 6 的下行趨勢。這表明在觸發買入之前可能還會出現 3 個月的下行趨勢，表明潛在的趨勢耗盡和可能逆轉上行趨勢。

The negative Heikin Ashi candles, characterized by filled bodies, indicate that the average price is moving down and support the bearish sentiment. The combination of the TD Sequential's downside indication and the negative Heikin Ashi candles paints a bleak picture for XRP/BTC in the medium term on the monthly chart.

負面的 Heikin Ashi 蠟燭以實心實體為特徵，表明平均價格正在下跌並支撐看跌情緒。 TD Sequential 的下行跡象和負面的 Heikin Ashi 蠟燭圖相結合，在月度圖表上描繪了 XRP/BTC 中期的黯淡景象。

Can Ripple Overcome Its Four-Year Resistance Against Bitcoin?

Ripple能否克服比特幣四年來的阻力？

Zooming out on the XRP/BTC chart reveals a four-year resistance zone established since 2020. This zone has historically acted as a hurdle for XRP rallies, indicating strong selling pressure.

縮小 XRP/BTC 圖表可以看到自 2020 年以來建立的四年阻力區。

The chart highlights two potential scenarios:

此圖表突顯了兩種可能的情況：

1. A continuation of the current downtrend and a TD count to 9, supported by recent price action showing lower highs and lower lows.
2. A ninth pump, which if it fails to yield a rise greater than 120%, may not be sufficient to break through the resistance zone, resulting in a potential "dead cat bounce" for XRP against BTC.

Persistent Bearish Trend in XRP vs. BTC with RSI Indicating Continued Weakness

當前下降趨勢的延續和 TD 計數至 9，受到近期價格走勢顯示較低高點和較低低點的支撐。導致XRP 兌BTC 可能出現「死貓反彈」。

The prolonged devaluation of XRP against BTC since 2018 has resulted in a consistent bearish trend, with lower highs and lower lows. This trend is reinforced by the RSI, which also shows lower highs and lower lows, failing to break out of a descending trend that began in 2018.

自 2018 年以來，XRP 對 BTC 的長期貶值導致了持續的看跌趨勢，高點更低，低點更低。 RSI 強化了這一趨勢，RSI 也顯示出較低的高點和較低的低點，未能突破 2018 年開始的下降趨勢。

In April 2024, the RSI reading around 32 suggests continued bearish momentum for XRP, indicating that it is not yet in oversold territory, which could allow for further decline.

2024 年 4 月，RSI 讀數約為 32，顯示 XRP 持續看跌勢頭，表明其尚未進入超賣區域，這可能會進一步下跌。

Bitcoin's Strong Fundamentals and Trustworthiness

比特幣強大的基本面和可信度

In contrast to XRP, Bitcoin's price history exhibits a clear cyclical pattern when viewed in logarithmic format. Despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin's long-term trend has shown a consistent upward trajectory, particularly over 15 years.

與 XRP 相比，以對數格式查看時，比特幣的價格歷史表現出明顯的週期性模式。儘管短期波動，但比特幣的長期趨勢顯示出持續的上升軌跡，尤其是在 15 年來。

This predictability stems from Bitcoin's solid fundamentals, including its finite supply, halving events, network effects, and continuous technological improvements. These factors create a foundation that can lead to predictable growth cycles.

這種可預測性源自於比特幣堅實的基礎，包括其有限的供應、減半事件、網路效應和持續的技術改進。這些因素為實現可預測的成長週期奠定了基礎。

Conclusion

結論

The XRP/BTC pair has exhibited a persistent downward trend since 2018, evidenced by lower highs and lower lows in XRP's price against BTC. The RSI confirms this bearish momentum.

自 2018 年以來，XRP/BTC 貨幣對呈現出持續下跌的趨勢，XRP 兌 BTC 價格的高點和低點降低就證明了這一點。 RSI 證實了這種看跌勢頭。

Despite occasional XRP pumps, the trend points toward further depreciation of XRP's price against BTC. The formidable resistance level established over four years represents a significant challenge for XRP to overcome and remain competitive in the crypto space.

儘管 XRP 偶爾會上漲，但趨勢表明 XRP 相對於 BTC 的價格將進一步貶值。四年來建立的強大阻力等級對 XRP 來說是一個巨大的挑戰，需要克服並維持在加密貨幣領域的競爭力。

This bear outlook for XRP prompts a reflection on Ripple's fundamentals. Will an improvement in Ripple's underlying fundamentals be sufficient to reverse the downtrend and initiate a sustainable XRP rally in 2024? Or will Bitcoin's dominance continue to overshadow Ripple's gains?

XRP 的看跌前景促使人們反思 Ripple 的基本面。 Ripple 基本面的改善是否足以扭轉下跌趨勢並在 2024 年引發可持續的 XRP 反彈？或者比特幣的主導地位會繼續蓋過瑞波幣的漲幅嗎？

FAQs

常見問題解答

Why has XRP been devaluing against BTC?

為什麼 XRP 相對 BTC 貶值？

XRP has shown a consistent bearish trend against BTC, marked by lower highs and lower lows, with the RSI also indicating weakness.

XRP 相對 BTC 一直呈現看跌趨勢，其特徵是高點和低點不斷降低，RSI 也顯示疲軟。

What do recent pumps suggest about XRP's performance?

最近的漲勢對 XRP 的效能有何影響？

Recent XRP pumps have been weak, hinting at diminishing investor confidence compared to BTC's consistent store of value.

最近 XRP 的上漲一直疲軟，這暗示與 BTC 一貫的價值儲存相比，投資者的信心正在減弱。

Is it better to hold XRP or BTC based on historical trends?

根據歷史趨勢，持有 XRP 還是 BTC 比較好？

Historical trends suggest BTC has been a stronger hold, with XRP showing a persistent decline in comparative value.

歷史趨勢表明，BTC 的持股一直較強，而 XRP 的相對價值則持續下降。

Can XRP overcome its downtrend against BTC?

XRP 能否克服 BTC 的下跌趨勢？

Overcoming the downtrend would require significant shifts in market dynamics or Ripple's fundamentals to trigger a bullish reversal.

克服下跌趨勢需要市場動態或瑞波幣基本面發生重大轉變才能引發看漲逆轉。