XRP 表现逊于比特币，十年来下跌 96%

技术分析表明，自 2018 年以来，XRP 相对于 BTC 的表现较差，下跌了 96%。 XRP 上涨的强度已经减弱，表明投资者持谨慎态度。历史反弹并没有扭转 XRP 对 BTC 的贬值。 TD Sequential 和 Heikin Ashi 分析表明存在进一步的下行潜力。 RSI 证实了 XRP 相对于 BTC 强势的疲弱势头。克服 XRP 熊市趋势需要重大的市场转变。在 XRP 和 BTC 投资之间做出决定需要了解它们的价格行为和技术应用。

XRP's Underperformance Against Bitcoin: A Declining Trend Over a Decade

XRP 相对于比特币的表现不佳：十年来呈下降趋势

Key Insights:

重要见解：

• XRP's value against BTC has depreciated by 96% since 2018, indicating a consistent bear trend.
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests diminishing momentum for XRP compared to Bitcoin's growing strength.
• Past XRP rallies against BTC have shown diminishing returns, reflecting reduced investor optimism.
• Shifting market dynamics are crucial for XRP to overcome its bearish trend against BTC.
• Evaluating XRP and BTC investments requires understanding their price behavior and technological applications.

Technical Analysis: A Deeper Look into XRP's Performance

自 2018 年以来，XRP 相对 BTC 的价值已贬值 96%，表明持续的熊市趋势。相对强弱指数 (RSI) 表明，与比特币不断增长的实力相比，XRP 的动能正在减弱。过去 XRP 相对 BTC 的上涨表现出回报递减，反映出投资者乐观情绪的减弱.市场动态的变化对于 XRP 克服其相对 BTC 的看跌趋势至关重要。评估 XRP 和 BTC 投资需要了解它们的价格行为和技术应用。技术分析：深入研究 XRP 的表现

Technical indicators like price trends, resistance lines, and Tom De Marc's TD sequential indicator are employed in this analysis to gauge XRP's momentum and future prospects. The analysis aims to determine whether XRP's devaluation against BTC will persist and which cryptocurrency represents a more favorable investment opportunity in 2024.

此分析采用价​​格趋势、阻力线和 Tom De Marc 的 TD 顺序指标等技术指标来衡量 XRP 的势头和未来前景。该分析旨在确定 XRP 相对 BTC 的贬值是否会持续，以及哪种加密货币在 2024 年代表着更有利的投资机会。

Understanding XRP's Struggle Against Bitcoin: A Historical Perspective

了解 XRP 与比特币的斗争：历史视角

Examining the XRP/BTC chart from 2014 to 2024 provides insights into Ripple's (XRP) performance relative to Bitcoin (BTC) over a decade. The chart reveals multiple XRP pumps, or significant price increases against BTC, with the percentage gains marked on the chart.

通过检查 2014 年至 2024 年的 XRP/BTC 图表，可以深入了解 Ripple (XRP) 相对于比特币 (BTC) 十年来的表现。该图表显示了多个 XRP 上涨，或相对于 BTC 的价格大幅上涨，图表上标出了涨幅百分比。

During the period between 2014 and 2019, XRP demonstrated resilience and substantial recoveries against BTC after four distinct downtrends. The percentage gains during these pumps were:

2014 年至 2019 年期间，XRP 在经历了四次明显的下跌趋势后表现出了韧性，并相对于 BTC 大幅复苏。这些泵期间的增益百分比为：

• Pump 1 (2014): 717%
• Pump 2 (2017): 3074%
• Pump 3 (2018): 267%
• Pump 4 (2019): 61%

Post-2019, the chart indicates a decline in the intensity and frequency of these bullish reversals, suggesting a weakening of XRP's relative strength and market dynamics. Recent pumps have become less pronounced, indicating a continuation or even intensification of the XRP/BTC downtrend with modest recoveries.

泵 1 (2014): 717% 泵 2 (2017): 3074% 泵 3 (2018): 267% 泵 4 (2019): 61% 2019 年后，图表表明这些看涨逆转的强度和频率有所下降，表明 XRP 的相对强度和市场动态减弱。最近的涨势变得不那么明显，表明 XRP/BTC 的下跌趋势持续甚至加剧，且略有复苏。

The diminished intensity of XRP's pumps against BTC could reflect a loss of momentum or reduced investor confidence in XRP compared to BTC. Since 2019, the market has clearly favored BTC as a store of value over XRP.

XRP 对 BTC 的拉动强度减弱可能反映出与 BTC 相比，XRP 的动力丧失或投资者对 XRP 的信心下降。自 2019 年以来，市场显然更青睐 BTC 作为价值储存手段，而不是 XRP。

Comparing XRP and Bitcoin: Analyzing Investment Outcomes

比较 XRP 和比特币：分析投资结果

Consider the scenario in 2018 when XRP's peak value against BTC was 0.00022 BTC. By April 2024, the chart shows a decline to 0.00000828 BTC, representing a 96% drop over seven years.

考虑 2018 年的情况，当时 XRP 兑 BTC 的峰值为 0.00022 BTC。到 2024 年 4 月，图表显示比特币数量下降至 0.00000828 BTC，七年来下降了 96%。

This significant devaluation contrasts with BTC's substantial rise from $17,000 in January 2018 to approximately $63,000 in April 2024. To reach the same price point as XRP in January 2018, XRP would require a remarkable 2595% rally against BTC.

这一大幅贬值与 BTC 从 2018 年 1 月的 17,000 美元大幅上涨至 2024 年 4 月的约 63,000 美元形成鲜明对比。要在 2018 年 1 月达到与 XRP 相同的价格点，XRP 相对于 BTC 需要大幅上涨 2595%。

From an investment perspective, holding XRP since 2018 would have resulted in a severe decline in BTC value, while an investment in BTC during the same period would have yielded substantial growth against the United States Dollar (USD).

从投资角度来看，自2018年以来持有XRP将导致BTC价值严重下跌，而同期投资BTC则兑美元（USD）大幅增长。

XRP's Downward Trend Against BTC: A Closer Examination

XRP 相对 BTC 的下跌趋势：进一步检验

Using the TD Sequential and Heikin Ashi analysis, the XRP/BTC trend can be further examined. The TD Sequential is a technical indicator that identifies potential price exhaustion and trend reversals.

使用 TD Sequential 和 Heikin Ashi 分析，可以进一步检查 XRP/BTC 趋势。 TD 序列是一种技术指标，可识别潜在的价格耗尽和趋势逆转。

In April 2024, the monthly XRP/BTC chart using Heikin Ashi candles reveals a TD Sequential count of 1 to 6 to the downside. This suggests the possibility of 3 more months of downside before a buy setup is triggered, indicating potential trend exhaustion and a possible reversal to the upside.

2024 年 4 月，使用 Heikin Ashi 蜡烛图的 XRP/BTC 月度图表显示 TD 顺序计数为 1 到 6 的下行趋势。这表明在触发买入之前可能还会出现 3 个月的下行趋势，表明潜在的趋势耗尽和可能逆转上行趋势。

The negative Heikin Ashi candles, characterized by filled bodies, indicate that the average price is moving down and support the bearish sentiment. The combination of the TD Sequential's downside indication and the negative Heikin Ashi candles paints a bleak picture for XRP/BTC in the medium term on the monthly chart.

负面的 Heikin Ashi 蜡烛以实心实体为特征，表明平均价格正在下跌并支撑看跌情绪。 TD Sequential 的下行迹象和负面的 Heikin Ashi 蜡烛图相结合，在月度图表上描绘了 XRP/BTC 中期的黯淡景象。

Can Ripple Overcome Its Four-Year Resistance Against Bitcoin?

Ripple能否克服比特币四年来的阻力？

Zooming out on the XRP/BTC chart reveals a four-year resistance zone established since 2020. This zone has historically acted as a hurdle for XRP rallies, indicating strong selling pressure.

缩小 XRP/BTC 图表可以看到自 2020 年以来建立的四年阻力区。该区域历来是 XRP 反弹的障碍，表明存在强大的抛售压力。

The chart highlights two potential scenarios:

该图表突出显示了两种可能的情况：

1. A continuation of the current downtrend and a TD count to 9, supported by recent price action showing lower highs and lower lows.
2. A ninth pump, which if it fails to yield a rise greater than 120%, may not be sufficient to break through the resistance zone, resulting in a potential "dead cat bounce" for XRP against BTC.

Persistent Bearish Trend in XRP vs. BTC with RSI Indicating Continued Weakness

当前下降趋势的延续和 TD 计数至 9，受到近期价格走势显示较低高点和较低低点的支撑。第九次上涨，如果未能产生超过 120% 的涨幅，可能不足以突破阻力区，导致 XRP 兑 BTC 可能出现“死猫反弹”。XRP 兑 BTC 持续看跌趋势，RSI 表明持续疲软

The prolonged devaluation of XRP against BTC since 2018 has resulted in a consistent bearish trend, with lower highs and lower lows. This trend is reinforced by the RSI, which also shows lower highs and lower lows, failing to break out of a descending trend that began in 2018.

自 2018 年以来，XRP 对 BTC 的长期贬值导致了持续的看跌趋势，高点更低，低点更低。 RSI 强化了这一趋势，RSI 也显示出较低的高点和较低的低点，未能突破 2018 年开始的下降趋势。

In April 2024, the RSI reading around 32 suggests continued bearish momentum for XRP, indicating that it is not yet in oversold territory, which could allow for further decline.

2024 年 4 月，RSI 读数约为 32，表明 XRP 持续看跌势头，表明其尚未进入超卖区域，这可能会进一步下跌。

Bitcoin's Strong Fundamentals and Trustworthiness

比特币强大的基本面和可信度

In contrast to XRP, Bitcoin's price history exhibits a clear cyclical pattern when viewed in logarithmic format. Despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin's long-term trend has shown a consistent upward trajectory, particularly over 15 years.

与 XRP 相比，以对数格式查看时，比特币的价格历史表现出明显的周期性模式。尽管存在短期波动，但比特币的长期趋势显示出持续的上升轨迹，尤其是在 15 年来。

This predictability stems from Bitcoin's solid fundamentals, including its finite supply, halving events, network effects, and continuous technological improvements. These factors create a foundation that can lead to predictable growth cycles.

这种可预测性源于比特币坚实的基础，包括其有限的供应、减半事件、网络效应和持续的技术改进。这些因素为实现可预测的增长周期奠定了基础。

Conclusion

结论

The XRP/BTC pair has exhibited a persistent downward trend since 2018, evidenced by lower highs and lower lows in XRP's price against BTC. The RSI confirms this bearish momentum.

自 2018 年以来，XRP/BTC 货币对呈现出持续下跌的趋势，XRP 兑 BTC 价格的高点和低点降低就证明了这一点。 RSI 证实了这种看跌势头。

Despite occasional XRP pumps, the trend points toward further depreciation of XRP's price against BTC. The formidable resistance level established over four years represents a significant challenge for XRP to overcome and remain competitive in the crypto space.

尽管 XRP 偶尔会上涨，但趋势表明 XRP 相对于 BTC 的价格将进一步贬值。四年来建立的强大阻力水平对 XRP 来说是一个巨大的挑战，需要克服并保持在加密货币领域的竞争力。

This bear outlook for XRP prompts a reflection on Ripple's fundamentals. Will an improvement in Ripple's underlying fundamentals be sufficient to reverse the downtrend and initiate a sustainable XRP rally in 2024? Or will Bitcoin's dominance continue to overshadow Ripple's gains?

XRP 的看跌前景促使人们反思 Ripple 的基本面。 Ripple 基本面的改善是否足以扭转下跌趋势并在 2024 年引发可持续的 XRP 反弹？或者比特币的主导地位会继续盖过瑞波币的涨幅吗？

FAQs

常见问题解答

Why has XRP been devaluing against BTC?

为什么 XRP 相对 BTC 贬值？

XRP has shown a consistent bearish trend against BTC, marked by lower highs and lower lows, with the RSI also indicating weakness.

XRP 相对 BTC 一直呈现看跌趋势，其特点是高点和低点不断降低，RSI 也显示疲软。

What do recent pumps suggest about XRP's performance?

最近的涨势对 XRP 的性能有何影响？

Recent XRP pumps have been weak, hinting at diminishing investor confidence compared to BTC's consistent store of value.

最近 XRP 的上涨一直疲软，这暗示与 BTC 一贯的价值储存相比，投资者的信心正在减弱。

Is it better to hold XRP or BTC based on historical trends?

根据历史趋势，持有 XRP 还是 BTC 更好？

Historical trends suggest BTC has been a stronger hold, with XRP showing a persistent decline in comparative value.

历史趋势表明，BTC 的持有量一直较强，而 XRP 的相对价值则持续下降。

Can XRP overcome its downtrend against BTC?

XRP 能否克服 BTC 的下跌趋势？

Overcoming the downtrend would require significant shifts in market dynamics or Ripple's fundamentals to trigger a bullish reversal.

克服下跌趋势需要市场动态或瑞波币基本面发生重大转变才能引发看涨逆转。