鯨魚交換比信號降低了？

交易所的鯨比飆升至0.6，這是一年多以來的最高水平。這種上升表明，大量比特幣（稱為鯨魚）的持有人現在負責大部分BTC流入

The whale ratio of exchanges has soared to 0.6 – its highest level in over a year. This rise indicates that holders of large amounts of Bitcoin (BTC) are now responsible for a significant portion of BTC inflows on exchange platforms.

交易所的鯨比飆升至0.6，這是一年多以來的最高水平。這種上升表明，大量比特幣（BTC）的持有人現在負責交換平台上的大部分BTC流入。

Historically, such behavior often precedes significant market movements, hinting at an impending increase in selling activity.

從歷史上看，這種行為通常在市場上的重大轉移之前，暗示銷售活動即將增加。

As shown in the graph, similar peaks observed in mid-2024 were followed by notable price declines. The recent rise has coincided with the cryptocurrency’s retreat from its all-time high. A sign that whales may once again be reallocating their assets anticipating market weakness. If past trends persist, high levels of the whale ratio could signal upcoming volatility.

如圖所示，在2024年中期觀察到的類似峰，然後是顯著的價格下降。最近的上升與加密貨幣從歷史最高高的撤退相吻合。鯨魚可能會再次重新分配其資產，以預測市場疲軟。如果過去的趨勢持續存在，則高水平的鯨魚比可能表明即將發生的波動性。

Increasing Demand for Downside Protection

對下行保護的需求增加

The Bitcoin options market also shows signs of caution. Investors are paying a high premium for put options compared to call options, especially for prices below $80,000. This pattern can be interpreted as an increasing demand for downside protection, with investors preparing for potential declines.

比特幣期權市場還顯示出謹慎的跡象。與呼叫期權相比，投資者為PUT期權支付高保費，尤其是低於80,000美元的價格。這種模式可以解釋為對下行保護的需求不斷增長，投資者為潛在下降做準備。

The strong left-side asymmetry in the graph hints at increased short-term volatility fear and appears to reinforce the overall market sentiment shift towards defensive strategies. This rise in put options premiums also signals a more cautious investor sentiment, aligning with on-chain whale activity and indicating a cautious outlook for Bitcoin in the short term.

圖表中強烈的左側不對稱暗示了短期波動性的恐懼增加，並且似乎加劇了整體市場情緒向防守策略的轉變。 PUT期權保費的這種上升還表示更加謹慎的投資者情緒，與鏈上的鯨魚活動保持一致，並表示短期內對比特幣的前景謹慎。

What Does the Future Hold for Bitcoin ?

比特幣的未來有什麼影響？

The surge in whale inflows and the significant increase in demand for downside protection through Bitcoin call options suggest a defensive stance among institutional and retail investors.

鯨魚流入的激增以及通過比特幣呼叫選項對下行保護的需求的顯著增加表明，機構和散戶投資者的防禦立場。

Historically, such on-chain and derivative signals have preceded correction phases, and this time may not be any different. In fact, the Bitcoin market structure is already under pressure.

從歷史上看，這種鍊和衍生信號的校正階段之前，這次可能沒有什麼不同。實際上，比特幣市場結構已經處於壓力下。

The recent Federal Reserve guidance on interest rate maintenance has halted Bitcoin’s momentum, with traders remaining uncertain about the timing of any future policy changes. Without clearly announced rate cuts, risk assets may struggle to find sustainable upward momentum.

美聯儲維持利率維持的最新指南已經停止了比特幣的勢頭，而交易者對任何未來政策變化的時機都不確定。如果沒有明確宣布的降低稅率，風險資產可能難以找到可持續的向上勢頭。

On the other hand, the RHODL ratio has just dropped into the blue zone, historically indicating the beginning of a bear market. The RHODL Ratio (Realized HODL Ratio) is an indicator used in Bitcoin market analysis to assess investor behavior, especially to distinguish between accumulation (HODLing) periods and distribution (selling) periods.

另一方面，Rhodl的比率剛剛降低到藍色區域，從歷史上看，熊市的開始。 Rhodl比率（已實現的HODL比率）是比特幣市場分析中用於評估投資者行為的指標，尤其是區分累積（Hodling）期間和分佈（銷售）期。

In correlation with this whale movements, this indicates a distribution phase, preceding a significant price correction.

與這種鯨魚運動相關，這表明分配階段是在重大價格校正之前。

In the short term, BTC has a strong rebound zone between $81,000 and $82,600. Below $80,000, BTC could seek a new low between $72,000 and $75,000.For a rebound, Bitcoin has its 100-day moving average at around $94,000 and the 50-day average at $90,000. Therefore, close attention should be paid to the price action in this zone in case of an upward movement.

在短期內，BTC的籃板區域在81,000美元至82,600美元之間。 BTC低於$ 80,000，可以在72,000美元至75,000美元之間尋求新的低點。對於籃板，比特幣的搬家平均值約為94,000美元左右，而50天平均水平為90,000美元。因此，如果向上移動，應密切注意該區域的價格行動。

In conclusion, in a confirmed bear market scenario, Bitcoin could drop to $55,000. This corresponds to the bottom of the Mean Reversion Channel in daily and the two-year SMA.

總之，在確認的熊市情況下，比特幣可能會降至55,000美元。這對應於每日和為期兩年的SMA中的平均恢復渠道的底部。