VanEck 預測，到 2050 年，美國比特幣儲備將涵蓋高達 35% 的國債

投資經理 VanEck 預測，到 2050 年，美國比特幣儲備可以覆蓋高達 35% 的國家債務。

Investment management firm VanEck has predicted that a US Bitcoin Reserve could cover up to 35% of the national debt by 2050. This estimate supports Senator Cynthia Lummis’s BITCOIN Act, which proposes the government hold one million BTC by 2029.

投資管理公司 VanEck 預測，到 2050 年，美國比特幣儲備可以覆蓋高達 35% 的國家債務。

According to VanEck’s analysis, the reserve could be valued at $42 trillion by 2049 if Bitcoin grows at a 25% CAGR starting at $200,000 in 2025. This projection also anticipates a 5% annual increase in the US national debt, reaching $37 trillion by 2025.

根據VanEck 的分析，如果比特幣從2025 年的20 萬美元開始以25% 的複合年增長率增長，那麼到2049 年，該儲備的價值可能達到42 兆美元。將成長5%，到2025 年將達到37 兆美元。

Despite Bitcoin’s 50% average annual growth over the last decade, VanEck’s 25% CAGR assumption is described as conservative. However, critics suggest that consistently achieving such growth over 25 years might be challenging.

儘管比特幣在過去十年中年均增長率為 50%，但 VanEck 的 25% 複合年增長率假設被認為是保守的。然而，批評者認為，在 25 年內持續實現這樣的成長可能具有挑戰性。

Bitcoin Reserve to Strengthen the US Dollar

比特幣儲備將支撐美元走強

Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Research, expressed his support for a US Bitcoin Reserve, addressing concerns raised by crypto investor Nic Carter. Sigel argues that the reserve would not weaken the US dollar but rather complement it.

VanEck 研究主管 Matthew Sigel 表達了對美國比特幣儲備的支持，並解決了加密貨幣投資者 Nic Carter 的擔憂。西格爾認為，儲備不會削弱美元，反而會補充美元。

“Bitcoin doesn’t have to undermine the dollar. As in an investor portfolio, a small position is simply a hedge against fiscal unsustainability and geopolitical uncertainty,” he said.

“比特幣不一定會削弱美元。與投資者投資組合一樣，少量頭寸只是對沖財政不可持續性和地緣政治不確定性，」他表示。

Sigel highlighted how Bitcoin can instill fiscal stability and discipline within the US financial system. He also noted the increasing mainstream adoption of Bitcoin, suggesting that its gradual integration could align with existing political priorities.

西格爾強調了比特幣如何在美國金融體系中註入財政穩定性和紀律。他還指出，比特幣越來越被主流採用，這表明比特幣的逐步整合可以與現有的政治優先事項保持一致。

Gradual Process to Build US Bitcoin Reserve

逐步建立美國比特幣儲備的過程

VanEck estimates that acquiring one million BTC would cost around $320 billion, disputing claims that it would require over $1 trillion. The plan proposes a gradual accumulation process to avoid financial strain while capitalizing on Bitcoin’s neutral status as a reserve asset.

VanEck 估計，收購 100 萬比特幣將花費約 3,200 億美元，對需要超過 1 兆美元的說法提出異議。該計劃提出了一個漸進的累積過程，以避免財務緊張，同時利用比特幣作為儲備資產的中立地位。

Sigel also noted that Bitcoin mining could contribute to US energy goals. Mining operations drive investments in domestic energy infrastructure, including renewable energy and nuclear projects, which aligns with broader objectives of energy independence and grid resilience.

西格爾也指出，比特幣挖礦可以為美國的能源目標做出貢獻。採礦作業推動了對國內能源基礎設施的投資，包括再生能源和核子項目，這與能源獨立和電網彈性的更廣泛目標一致。

It’s important to note that the Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, currently prohibits government Bitcoin purchases, but future administrations may reconsider this stance.

值得注意的是，由主席鮑威爾領導的聯準會目前禁止政府購買比特幣，但未來的政府可能會重新考慮這一立場。