VanEck 预测，到 2050 年，美国比特币储备将覆盖高达 35% 的国债

投资经理 VanEck 预测，到 2050 年，美国比特币储备可以覆盖高达 35% 的国家债务。这一估计支持参议员 Cynthia Lummis 的比特币法案，该法案建议到 2029 年持有 100 万比特币。

Investment management firm VanEck has predicted that a US Bitcoin Reserve could cover up to 35% of the national debt by 2050. This estimate supports Senator Cynthia Lummis’s BITCOIN Act, which proposes the government hold one million BTC by 2029.

投资管理公司 VanEck 预测，到 2050 年，美国比特币储备可以覆盖高达 35% 的国家债务。这一估计支持参议员 Cynthia Lummis 的比特币法案，该法案建议政府到 2029 年持有 100 万比特币。

According to VanEck’s analysis, the reserve could be valued at $42 trillion by 2049 if Bitcoin grows at a 25% CAGR starting at $200,000 in 2025. This projection also anticipates a 5% annual increase in the US national debt, reaching $37 trillion by 2025.

根据 VanEck 的分析，如果比特币从 2025 年的 20 万美元开始以 25% 的复合年增长率增长，那么到 2049 年，该储备的价值可能达到 42 万亿美元。该预测还预计，美国国债每年将增长 5%，到 2025 年将达到 37 万亿美元。

Despite Bitcoin’s 50% average annual growth over the last decade, VanEck’s 25% CAGR assumption is described as conservative. However, critics suggest that consistently achieving such growth over 25 years might be challenging.

尽管比特币在过去十年中年均增长率为 50%，但 VanEck 的 25% 复合年增长率假设被认为是保守的。然而，批评者认为，在 25 年内持续实现这样的增长可能具有挑战性。

Bitcoin Reserve to Strengthen the US Dollar

比特币储备将支撑美元走强

Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Research, expressed his support for a US Bitcoin Reserve, addressing concerns raised by crypto investor Nic Carter. Sigel argues that the reserve would not weaken the US dollar but rather complement it.

VanEck 研究主管 Matthew Sigel 表达了对美国比特币储备的支持，并解决了加密货币投资者 Nic Carter 提出的担忧。西格尔认为，储备不会削弱美元，而是会补充美元。

“Bitcoin doesn’t have to undermine the dollar. As in an investor portfolio, a small position is simply a hedge against fiscal unsustainability and geopolitical uncertainty,” he said.

“比特币不一定会削弱美元。与投资者投资组合一样，少量头寸只是对冲财政不可持续性和地缘政治不确定性，”他表示。

Sigel highlighted how Bitcoin can instill fiscal stability and discipline within the US financial system. He also noted the increasing mainstream adoption of Bitcoin, suggesting that its gradual integration could align with existing political priorities.

西格尔强调了比特币如何在美国金融体系中注入财政稳定性和纪律。他还指出，比特币越来越被主流采用，这表明比特币的逐步整合可以与现有的政治优先事项保持一致。

Gradual Process to Build US Bitcoin Reserve

逐步建立美国比特币储备的过程

VanEck estimates that acquiring one million BTC would cost around $320 billion, disputing claims that it would require over $1 trillion. The plan proposes a gradual accumulation process to avoid financial strain while capitalizing on Bitcoin’s neutral status as a reserve asset.

VanEck 估计，收购 100 万比特币将花费约 3200 亿美元，对需要超过 1 万亿美元的说法提出异议。该计划提出了一个渐进的积累过程，以避免财务紧张，同时利用比特币作为储备资产的中立地位。

Sigel also noted that Bitcoin mining could contribute to US energy goals. Mining operations drive investments in domestic energy infrastructure, including renewable energy and nuclear projects, which aligns with broader objectives of energy independence and grid resilience.

西格尔还指出，比特币挖矿可以为美国的能源目标做出贡献。采矿作业推动了对国内能源基础设施的投资，包括可再生能源和核项目，这与能源独立和电网弹性的更广泛目标相一致。

It’s important to note that the Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, currently prohibits government Bitcoin purchases, but future administrations may reconsider this stance.

值得注意的是，由主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔领导的美联储目前禁止政府购买比特币，但未来的政府可能会重新考虑这一立场。