即將到來的比特幣減半：市場預期與潛在影響

Crypto.com 執行長 Kris Marszalek 表示，即將於 2023 年 4 月舉行的比特幣減半活動預計將遵循「根據謠言買入，根據新聞賣出」的模式。儘管最初面臨拋售壓力，但 Marszalek 認為，由於供應減少和挖礦效率提高，減半將對比特幣價格產生積極的長期影響。

Upcoming Bitcoin Halving Event: Expectations and Market Impact

即將到來的比特幣減半事件：預期和市場影響

The highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for April 20, 2024, has sparked discussions and speculations within the cryptocurrency community. Experts and industry leaders have weighed in on its potential implications for the digital asset's price and the broader market.

備受期待的比特幣減半事件定於 2024 年 4 月 20 日舉行，引發了加密貨幣社群內的討論和猜測。專家和行業領導者對其對數位資產價格和更廣泛市場的潛在影響進行了權衡。

Historical Perspective and Long-Term Impact

歷史視角與長期影響

Traditionally, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with significant price increases in the long term. This phenomenon is attributed to the reduced supply of new Bitcoins entering the market, post-halving. The halving event effectively cuts the block reward for miners in half, which incentivizes them to hold onto their existing coins and potentially contributes to a supply squeeze.

傳統上，比特幣減半與長期價格大幅上漲有關。這種現象歸因於減半後進入市場的新比特幣供應減少。減半事件實際上將礦工的區塊獎勵減少了一半，這激勵他們持有現有的代幣，並可能導致供應緊張。

The "Buy-the-Rumor, Sell-the-News" Dilemma

「買謠言，賣新聞」的困境

Despite the bullish long-term outlook, industry experts anticipate a period of selling pressure in the immediate aftermath of the halving. This aligns with the common market adage of "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news," where investors tend to buy an asset in anticipation of a positive event but subsequently sell it once the news materializes.

儘管長期前景看好，但行業專家預計減半後將出現一段時期的拋售壓力。這與「買入謠言，賣出新聞」的常見市場格言相一致，即投資者傾向於在預期出現積極事件時買入資產，但隨後在消息具體化後賣出。

Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com, expressed this view in a recent interview with Bloomberg. While acknowledging the potential for a sell-off initially, Marszalek maintained that the long-term impact of the halving on Bitcoin's price would be positive.

Crypto.com 執行長 Kris Marszalek 在最近接受彭博社採訪時表達了這一觀點。儘管最初承認存在拋售的可能性，但 Marszalek 堅持認為，減半對比特幣價格的長期影響將是正面的。

Market Expectations and Uncertainties

市場預期與不確定性

Analysts and traders remain divided on the magnitude and timing of the price appreciation post-halving. Some believe that the recent surge in Bitcoin's price in mid-March may have already priced in some of the halving's impact. Conversely, others anticipate a substantial rally once the event occurs.

分析師和交易員對於減半後價格上漲的幅度和時機仍有分歧。有些人認為，最近 3 月中旬比特幣價格的飆升可能已經消化了減半的部分影響。相反，其他人預計一旦事件發生，股市將大幅上漲。

Arthur Hayes, the CEO of BitMEX, adopted a cautious stance, suggesting that the price action around the halving could be negative. Coinbase has also cautioned against overly optimistic expectations, noting that traders may be holding back in anticipation of a price surge.

BitMEX 執行長 Arthur Hayes 採取謹慎立場，暗示減半前後的價格走勢可能是負面的。 Coinbase 也警告不要過度樂觀的預期，並指出交易員可能因預期價格飆升而猶豫不決。

Industry Insights and Outlook

產業洞察與展望

Despite these short-term uncertainties, industry figures like Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse remain optimistic. Garlinghouse predicts that the total market capitalization of crypto assets will double this year, largely driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs and the upcoming halving.

儘管存在這些短期不確定性，但 Ripple 執行長 Brad Garlinghouse 等業界人士仍保持樂觀。 Garlinghouse 預測，今年加密資產的總市值將翻一番，這主要是受到現貨比特幣 ETF 和即將到來的減半的推動。

Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon, emphasized that the halving's impact may already be partially reflected in the market. He attributed the recent influx of capital into the market, spurred by ETF approvals, as a potential accelerator for price appreciation typically associated with the halving.

Marathon執行長Fred Thiel強調，減半的影響可能已經部分反映在市場上。他將近期在 ETF 批准的刺激下湧入市場的資金視為通常與減半相關的價格升值的潛在加速器。

Market Situation and Price Volatility

市場狀況和價格波動

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $62,800, down 5.5% over the past 24 hours and 11.1% over the past week. The broader cryptocurrency market has experienced a similar downtrend, with the global crypto market cap declining 6% in the last day to $2.4 trillion.

截至本文撰寫時，比特幣交易價格約為 62,800 美元，過去 24 小時下跌 5.5%，過去一周下跌 11.1%。更廣泛的加密貨幣市場也經歷了類似的下跌趨勢，全球加密貨幣市值在最後一天下跌了 6％，至 2.4 兆美元。

The upcoming halving event has the potential to introduce significant volatility in the Bitcoin market. Investors should approach this period with caution, carefully considering their own risk tolerance and market outlook. While the long-term prospects for Bitcoin remain positive, short-term price fluctuations are to be expected.

即將到來的減半事件有可能為比特幣市場帶來大幅波動。投資人應謹慎對待這段時期，仔細考慮自己的風險承受能力和市場前景。雖然比特幣的長期前景仍然樂觀，但短期價格波動是可以預料的。