即将到来的比特币减半：市场预期和潜在影响

Crypto.com 首席执行官 Kris Marszalek 表示，即将于 2023 年 4 月举行的比特币减半活动预计将遵循“根据谣言买入，根据新闻卖出”的模式。尽管最初面临抛售压力，但 Marszalek 认为，由于供应减少和挖矿效率提高，减半将对比特币价格产生积极的长期影响。

Upcoming Bitcoin Halving Event: Expectations and Market Impact

即将到来的比特币减半事件：预期和市场影响

The highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for April 20, 2024, has sparked discussions and speculations within the cryptocurrency community. Experts and industry leaders have weighed in on its potential implications for the digital asset's price and the broader market.

备受期待的比特币减半事件定于 2024 年 4 月 20 日举行，引发了加密货币社区内的讨论和猜测。专家和行业领导者对其对数字资产价格和更广泛市场的潜在影响进行了权衡。

Historical Perspective and Long-Term Impact

历史视角和长期影响

Traditionally, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with significant price increases in the long term. This phenomenon is attributed to the reduced supply of new Bitcoins entering the market, post-halving. The halving event effectively cuts the block reward for miners in half, which incentivizes them to hold onto their existing coins and potentially contributes to a supply squeeze.

传统上，比特币减半与长期价格大幅上涨有关。这种现象归因于减半后进入市场的新比特币供应减少。减半事件实际上将矿工的区块奖励减少了一半，这激励他们持有现有的代币，并可能导致供应紧张。

The "Buy-the-Rumor, Sell-the-News" Dilemma

“买谣言，卖新闻”的困境

Despite the bullish long-term outlook, industry experts anticipate a period of selling pressure in the immediate aftermath of the halving. This aligns with the common market adage of "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news," where investors tend to buy an asset in anticipation of a positive event but subsequently sell it once the news materializes.

尽管长期前景看好，但行业专家预计减半后将出现一段时期的抛售压力。这与“买入谣言，卖出新闻”的常见市场格言相一致，即投资者倾向于在预期出现积极事件时买入资产，但随后在消息具体化后卖出。

Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com, expressed this view in a recent interview with Bloomberg. While acknowledging the potential for a sell-off initially, Marszalek maintained that the long-term impact of the halving on Bitcoin's price would be positive.

Crypto.com 首席执行官 Kris Marszalek 在最近接受彭博社采访时表达了这一观点。尽管最初承认存在抛售的可能性，但 Marszalek 坚持认为，减半对比特币价格的长期影响将是积极的。

Market Expectations and Uncertainties

市场预期和不确定性

Analysts and traders remain divided on the magnitude and timing of the price appreciation post-halving. Some believe that the recent surge in Bitcoin's price in mid-March may have already priced in some of the halving's impact. Conversely, others anticipate a substantial rally once the event occurs.

分析师和交易员对于减半后价格上涨的幅度和时机仍存在分歧。一些人认为，最近 3 月中旬比特币价格的飙升可能已经消化了减半的部分影响。相反，其他人预计一旦事件发生，股市将大幅上涨。

Arthur Hayes, the CEO of BitMEX, adopted a cautious stance, suggesting that the price action around the halving could be negative. Coinbase has also cautioned against overly optimistic expectations, noting that traders may be holding back in anticipation of a price surge.

BitMEX 首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 采取谨慎立场，暗示减半前后的价格走势可能是负面的。 Coinbase 还警告不要过度乐观的预期，并指出交易员可能因预期价格飙升而犹豫不决。

Industry Insights and Outlook

行业洞察与展望

Despite these short-term uncertainties, industry figures like Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse remain optimistic. Garlinghouse predicts that the total market capitalization of crypto assets will double this year, largely driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs and the upcoming halving.

尽管存在这些短期不确定性，但 Ripple 首席执行官布拉德·加林豪斯 (Brad Garlinghouse) 等行业人士仍然保持乐观。 Garlinghouse 预测，今年加密资产的总市值将翻一番，这主要是受到现货比特币 ETF 和即将到来的减半的推动。

Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon, emphasized that the halving's impact may already be partially reflected in the market. He attributed the recent influx of capital into the market, spurred by ETF approvals, as a potential accelerator for price appreciation typically associated with the halving.

Marathon首席执行官Fred Thiel强调，减半的影响可能已经部分反映在市场上。他将近期在 ETF 批准的刺激下涌入市场的资金视为通常与减半相关的价格升值的潜在加速器。

Market Situation and Price Volatility

市场状况和价格波动

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $62,800, down 5.5% over the past 24 hours and 11.1% over the past week. The broader cryptocurrency market has experienced a similar downtrend, with the global crypto market cap declining 6% in the last day to $2.4 trillion.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格约为 62,800 美元，过去 24 小时下跌 5.5%，过去一周下跌 11.1%。更广泛的加密货币市场也经历了类似的下跌趋势，全球加密货币市值在最后一天下跌了 6％，至 2.4 万亿美元。

The upcoming halving event has the potential to introduce significant volatility in the Bitcoin market. Investors should approach this period with caution, carefully considering their own risk tolerance and market outlook. While the long-term prospects for Bitcoin remain positive, short-term price fluctuations are to be expected.

即将到来的减半事件有可能给比特币市场带来大幅波动。投资者应谨慎对待这一时期，仔细考虑自己的风险承受能力和市场前景。虽然比特币的长期前景仍然乐观，但短期价格波动是可以预料的。