特朗普[特朗普]通過4000萬代幣解鎖活動擴大循環供應

官方的特朗普[特朗普] Memecoin於2025年1月17日啟動，最近經歷了一項重大的令牌解鎖活動。

The Official Trump [TRUMP] memecoin, launched on the 17th of January 2025, has recently experienced a significant token unlock event.

官方的特朗普[特朗普] Memecoin於2025年1月17日啟動，最近經歷了一項重大的令牌解鎖活動。

On the 18th of April, the market released 40 million TRUMP tokens, valued at approximately $300 million. These tokens account for 20% of the current circulating supply and 4% of the total supply, which will reach 1 billion tokens over the next three years.

4月18日，市場發布了4000萬個特朗普令牌，價值約3億美元。這些令牌佔當前循環供應的20％，佔總供應的4％，在未來三年內將達到10億個令牌。

However, structurally, TRUMP has exhibited severe price degradation, retracing -88% from its ATH of $74.59. With weakening price structure and mounting sell-side pressure, does this unlock represent a “high-risk” liquidity event or a calculated bet in a volatile market?

但是，從結構上講，特朗普的價格降低了嚴重的降級，從其ATH $ 74.59的ATH撤回-88％。由於價格結構疲軟和銷售端壓力，這是否代表“高風險”流動性事件或在動蕩的市場中計算出的賭注？

TRUMP tokenomics under scrutiny

在審查中特朗普象徵學

The TRUMP token has a cap of 1 billion tokens, set to be unlocked over the next three years, setting a hard supply ceiling.

特朗普令牌的上限為10億個令牌，將在未來三年內解鎖，並設置了硬供應上限。

Currently, 20% of the total supply, or approximately 200 million tokens, are in circulation, with the remaining tokens set to unlock progressively.

目前，總供應量的20％（約2億個令牌）正在流通，其餘的令牌將逐漸解鎖。

Once the new tokens enter circulation, they will contribute to market dilution, exerting downward pressure on the price, especially if holders choose to sell immediately upon unlocking.

一旦新令牌進入流通，它們將有助於市場稀釋，對價格下降壓力，尤其是如果持有人在解鎖後選擇立即出售。

However, despite inflationary effects and supply-side pressure, TRUMP’s fundamentals have shown remarkable resilience, as illustrated by the chart below.

然而，儘管通貨膨脹效應和供應側壓力，但特朗普的基本面表現出了顯著的韌性，如下圖所示。

Source: Glassnode

來源：玻璃節

Even though the token has lost initial “hype” post-launch, TRUMP’s STH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) hasn’яти entered capitulation territory. Instead, maintained a bullish bias.

即使令牌後令牌失去了最初的“大肆宣傳”，但特朗普的STH網絡未實現的盈利/損失（NUPL）HASN“ hasn'm'進入了投降領域。取而代之的是看漲偏見。

This suggests that Short-Term Holders (STHs) are still holding positions, demonstrating optimism and avoiding realizing losses.

這表明短期持有人（STH）仍在保持職位，表現出樂觀情緒並避免實現損失。

In conclusion, TRUMP’s 88% price correction could lead to volatility following the release of 40 million tokens. However, its strong fundamentals suggest that its tokenomics continue to position it as a compelling bullish bet.

總之，特朗普的88％的價格更正可能導致4000萬個令牌發行後波動性。但是，其強大的基本原理表明，它的標記學繼續將其定位為令人信服的看漲賭注。

Key levels to watch

觀看的關鍵水平

In alignment with AMBCrypto’s bullish thesis, TRUMP exhibited a robust 8% intraday rally in the immediate aftermath of the 40 million token unlock.

為了與Ambcrypto的看漲論文保持一致，特朗普在4000萬個令牌解鎖後立即表現出了8％的盤中集會。

Hence, reclaiming the $8 psychological level amid a 68% uptick in 24-hour trading volume.

因此，在24小時交易量增加了68％的增長中，以8美元的心理水平收回了8美元的心理水平。

This price response reflects bullish absorption of the unlock event, signaling that market participants may have front-run the supply-side dilution.

這種價格響應反映了對解鎖事件的看漲吸收，這表明市場參與者可能具有前進的供應方稀釋。

However, it remains unclear whether this move constitutes a structural reversal or merely a reflexive bounce within a broader downtrend.

但是，尚不清楚此舉是構成結構性逆轉還是僅僅是更廣泛的下降趨勢中的反身反轉。

In other words, has TRUMP established a definitive cyclical floor, or is this an interim liquidity-driven rally primed for mean reversion?

換句話說，特朗普是否建立了確定的周期性地板，還是這是跨流動性驅動的集會以進行平均歸還？

The chart below may offer that answer.

下圖可以提供該答案。

Source: Glassnode

來源：玻璃節

On one hand, strong holder conviction continues to defend the $7 support level, preventing a breakdown. On the other, weak capital inflows are capping TRUMP’s breakout potential.

一方面，強有力的持有人定罪繼續捍衛7美元的支持水平，以防止崩潰。另一方面，薄弱的資本流入正在限制特朗普的突破潛力。

Network growth metrics reflect this stagnation, with new wallet addresses dropping sharply to just 1,476 — a stark contrast to the 700,000 wallet count observed during its bullish expansion phase.

網絡增長指標反映了這一停滯，新錢包的地址急劇下降到1,476，這與在其看漲膨脹階段觀察到的700,000錢包數量形成鮮明對比。

In conclusion, TRUMP’s recent rally appears to be a reflexive bounce, driven by speculative positioning around the token unlock.

總而言之，特朗普最近的集會似乎是一種反思性的反彈，這是由於在令牌解鎖周圍的投機位置所驅動。

Without renewed inflows or a resurgence in network activity, the asset remains vulnerable to extended consolidation.

如果沒有更新的流入或網絡活動的複興，資產仍然容易受到擴展合併的影響。