特朗普[特朗普]通过4000万代币解锁活动扩大循环供应

官方的特朗普[特朗普] Memecoin于2025年1月17日启动，最近经历了一项重大的令牌解锁活动。

The Official Trump [TRUMP] memecoin, launched on the 17th of January 2025, has recently experienced a significant token unlock event.

官方的特朗普[特朗普] Memecoin于2025年1月17日启动，最近经历了一项重大的令牌解锁活动。

On the 18th of April, the market released 40 million TRUMP tokens, valued at approximately $300 million. These tokens account for 20% of the current circulating supply and 4% of the total supply, which will reach 1 billion tokens over the next three years.

4月18日，市场发布了4000万个特朗普令牌，价值约3亿美元。这些令牌占当前循环供应的20％，占总供应的4％，在未来三年内将达到10亿个令牌。

However, structurally, TRUMP has exhibited severe price degradation, retracing -88% from its ATH of $74.59. With weakening price structure and mounting sell-side pressure, does this unlock represent a “high-risk” liquidity event or a calculated bet in a volatile market?

但是，从结构上讲，特朗普的价格降低了严重的降级，从其ATH $ 74.59的ATH撤回-88％。由于价格结构疲软和销售端压力，这是否代表“高风险”流动性事件或在动荡的市场中计算出的赌注？

TRUMP tokenomics under scrutiny

在审查中特朗普象征学

The TRUMP token has a cap of 1 billion tokens, set to be unlocked over the next three years, setting a hard supply ceiling.

特朗普令牌的上限为10亿个令牌，将在未来三年内解锁，并设置了硬供应上限。

Currently, 20% of the total supply, or approximately 200 million tokens, are in circulation, with the remaining tokens set to unlock progressively.

目前，总供应量的20％（约2亿个令牌）正在流通，其余的令牌将逐渐解锁。

Once the new tokens enter circulation, they will contribute to market dilution, exerting downward pressure on the price, especially if holders choose to sell immediately upon unlocking.

一旦新令牌进入流通，它们将有助于市场稀释，对价格下降压力，尤其是如果持有人在解锁后选择立即出售。

However, despite inflationary effects and supply-side pressure, TRUMP’s fundamentals have shown remarkable resilience, as illustrated by the chart below.

然而，尽管通货膨胀效应和供应侧压力，但特朗普的基本面表现出了显着的韧性，如下图所示。

Source: Glassnode

来源：玻璃节

Even though the token has lost initial “hype” post-launch, TRUMP’s STH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) hasn’яти entered capitulation territory. Instead, maintained a bullish bias.

即使令牌后令牌失去了最初的“大肆宣传”，但特朗普的STH网络未实现的盈利/损失（NUPL）HASN“ hasn'm'进入了投降领域。取而代之的是看涨偏见。

This suggests that Short-Term Holders (STHs) are still holding positions, demonstrating optimism and avoiding realizing losses.

这表明短期持有人（STH）仍在保持职位，表现出乐观情绪并避免实现损失。

In conclusion, TRUMP’s 88% price correction could lead to volatility following the release of 40 million tokens. However, its strong fundamentals suggest that its tokenomics continue to position it as a compelling bullish bet.

总之，特朗普的88％的价格更正可能导致4000万个令牌发行后波动性。但是，其强大的基本原理表明，它的标记学继续将其定位为令人信服的看涨赌注。

Key levels to watch

观看的关键水平

In alignment with AMBCrypto’s bullish thesis, TRUMP exhibited a robust 8% intraday rally in the immediate aftermath of the 40 million token unlock.

为了与Ambcrypto的看涨论文保持一致，特朗普在4000万个令牌解锁后立即表现出了8％的盘中集会。

Hence, reclaiming the $8 psychological level amid a 68% uptick in 24-hour trading volume.

因此，在24小时交易量增加了68％的增长中，以8美元的心理水平收回了8美元的心理水平。

This price response reflects bullish absorption of the unlock event, signaling that market participants may have front-run the supply-side dilution.

这种价格响应反映了对解锁事件的看涨吸收，这表明市场参与者可能具有前进的供应方稀释。

However, it remains unclear whether this move constitutes a structural reversal or merely a reflexive bounce within a broader downtrend.

但是，尚不清楚此举是构成结构性逆转还是仅仅是更广泛的下降趋势中的反身反转。

In other words, has TRUMP established a definitive cyclical floor, or is this an interim liquidity-driven rally primed for mean reversion?

换句话说，特朗普是否建立了确定的周期性地板，还是这是跨流动性驱动的集会以进行平均归还？

The chart below may offer that answer.

下图可以提供该答案。

Source: Glassnode

来源：玻璃节

On one hand, strong holder conviction continues to defend the $7 support level, preventing a breakdown. On the other, weak capital inflows are capping TRUMP’s breakout potential.

一方面，强有力的持有人定罪继续捍卫7美元的支持水平，以防止崩溃。另一方面，薄弱的资本流入正在限制特朗普的突破潜力。

Network growth metrics reflect this stagnation, with new wallet addresses dropping sharply to just 1,476 — a stark contrast to the 700,000 wallet count observed during its bullish expansion phase.

网络增长指标反映了这一停滞，新钱包的地址急剧下降到1,476，这与在其看涨膨胀阶段观察到的700,000钱包数量形成鲜明对比。

In conclusion, TRUMP’s recent rally appears to be a reflexive bounce, driven by speculative positioning around the token unlock.

总而言之，特朗普最近的集会似乎是一种反思性的反弹，这是由于在令牌解锁周围的投机位置所驱动。

Without renewed inflows or a resurgence in network activity, the asset remains vulnerable to extended consolidation.

如果没有更新的流入或网络活动的复兴，资产仍然容易受到扩展合并的影响。