川普效應和比特幣崛起的基礎

唐納德·川普連任後，比特幣大幅上漲，根據 2024 年 11 月 10 日市場數據，比特幣達到 79,000 美元

Bitcoin price reached new heights on November 10, 2024, flirting with the $79,000 mark. This surge is largely driven by the announcement of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections, which is generating enthusiasm among institutional investors. In this context of high volatility, analyst PlanB now predicts a potential surge in Bitcoin’s price up to $500,000 by the next four-year cycle.

比特幣價格於 2024 年 11 月 10 日創下新高，逼近 79,000 美元大關。這一飆升主要是由於唐納德·川普宣佈在美國總統選舉中獲勝，這引起了機構投資者的熱情。在這種高波動性的背景下，分析師 PlanB 現在預測，到下一個四年周期，比特幣的價格可能會飆升至 50 萬美元。

Bitcoin price reaches $79,000, Trump's 'national reserve' proposal sparks institutional buying Bitcoin experienced a significant rise following the re-election of Donald Trump and reached $79,000 according to market data on Thursday. Such a surge is directly linked to the enthusiasm generated by the new U.S. administration’s stated intentions, particularly the idea of creating a national reserve in Bitcoin.

比特幣價格觸及79,000美元，川普「國家儲備」提議引發機構買盤 唐納德·川普連任後，比特幣經歷了大幅上漲，週四市場數據顯示，比特幣價格達到79,000美元。這種激增與美國新政府所宣稱的意圖所產生的熱情直接相關，特別是建立比特幣國家儲備的想法。

Analyst PlanB, known for his stock-to-flow model that projects the value of Bitcoin based on its scarcity and halving cycles, stated: “if history repeats itself and the stock-to-flow model continues to guide, we will witness a skyrocketing price.” These remarks resonate with investor expectations, anticipating an institutional influx into the BTC market.

分析師PlanB 以其股票到流量模型而聞名，該模型根據比特幣的稀缺性和減半週期來預測比特幣的價值，他表示：「如果歷史重演並且股票到流量模型繼續引導，我們將見證比特幣的飆升價格。這些言論與投資者的預期產生了共鳴，預計機構將湧入比特幣市場。

The proposal for a national reserve, already supported by influential voices like pro-Bitcoin Senator Cynthia Lummis, could increase institutional buying pressure by 200,000 BTC per year. With the integration of Bitcoin into national reserves, the United States could establish a new standard for digital value reserves, akin to gold reserves, spurred by unprecedented demand supported by official legitimacy for the world’s most capitalized cryptocurrency.

國家儲備的提議已經得到了支持比特幣的參議員辛西婭·盧米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 等有影響力的聲音的支持，這可能會導致機構購買壓力每年增加 20 萬個比特幣。隨著比特幣納入國家儲備，美國可以建立類似於黃金儲備的數位價值儲備的新標準，這受到對世界上資本最多的加密貨幣的官方合法性支持的前所未有的需求的刺激。

PlanB predicts Bitcoin price to reach $500,000 in the next cycle Beyond the direct impact of political announcements, analyst PlanB has highlighted the growth prospects for Bitcoin beyond short-term speculation. He predicts an upward trajectory for BTC up to $500,000 in the next cycle.

PlanB 預測比特幣價格將在下一個週期達到 50 萬美元 除了政治公告的直接影響之外，分析師 PlanB 還強調了比特幣超越短期投機的成長前景。他預計 BTC 在下一個週期的上漲軌跡將達到 50 萬美元。

Using the stock-to-flow model, which measures Bitcoin’s value through its scarcity and the effects of halvings, PlanB estimates a potential price range between $250,000 and $1,000,000 per unit. “The stock-to-flow is just a compass, but it has proven effective in the past,” he explained. Furthermore, he emphasized that large investors like MicroStrategy continue to bolster their BTC portfolios.

PlanB 使用庫存流量模型（透過其稀缺性和減半的影響來衡量比特幣的價值）估計每單位的潛在價格範圍在 25 萬美元至 100 萬美元之間。 「庫存流量只是一個指南針，但過去已被證明是有效的，」他解釋道。此外，他強調像 MicroStrategy 這樣的大型投資者將繼續增強他們的 BTC 投資組合。

The entry of companies like MicroStrategy, which plans to acquire 200,000 BTC annually, could serve as a catalyst for the price increase, through a constant influx of institutional capital. However, this movement also attracts criticism and concerns.

像 MicroStrategy 這樣計劃每年收購 200,000 BTC 的公司的進入可能會透過機構資本的不斷湧入而成為價格上漲的催化劑。然而，這項運動也招致批評和擔憂。

Thus, some observers warn against the effects of excessive speculation and the risks of “spoofing” on order books, a practice aimed at artificially manipulating prices by adding and removing large orders. This technique, although unregulated in crypto markets, could limit expected gains and create artificial price fluctuations.

因此，一些觀察家警告過度投機的影響和訂單簿上「欺騙」的風險，這種做法旨在透過增加和刪除大訂單來人為操縱價格。儘管這種技術在加密貨幣市場中不受監管，但可能會限制預期收益並造成人為的價格波動。

Bitcoin price rally: Key takeaways The rise of Bitcoin to $79,000 and PlanB’s ambitions, supported by a favorable political context, illustrate a decisive phase for BTC. If the establishment of a national reserve in Bitcoin in the United States were to materialize, it could redefine the foundations of the global digital economy.

比特幣價格上漲：關鍵要點 比特幣漲至 79,000 美元，以及 PlanB 的雄心壯志，在有利的政治環境的支持下，說明了 BTC 的決定性階段。如果美國建立比特幣國家儲備，可能會重新定義全球數位經濟的基礎。

However, the risks of market manipulation and the lack of regulation remain significant challenges, highlighting the need for greater oversight and transparency in the cryptocurrency markets.

然而，市場操縱風險和缺乏監管仍然是重大挑戰，凸顯了加密貨幣市場加強監管和提高透明度的必要性。